Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1205 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND HELP TO CREATE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT SOMETIME
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW NEAR KSYR AT 16Z HAS A TRAILING CFRONT ACROSS SWRN NEW
YORK...AND ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN FAR NWRN PENN AND NERN OHIO.

A STRIPE OF STRATUS AND STRATO CU RESIDED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
WHILE FURTHER SE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA...AREAS OF BKN-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT /THE REMNANTS OF BLOW-OFF FROM THE
WEAKENED MCS...THAT IS NOW MVG SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP/ADVECT EAST OF THE
REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A RIBBON OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOW-MID SUSQ VALLEY BY 00Z
SUNDAY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO POP UP FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST AND NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FRONT /AND ALSO INVOF THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND SOUTH MTN/ WHERE TWO BANDS OF NOTABLY HIGHER SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT.

THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
0-1 KM MU CAPES VIA THE 12Z NAM CLIMB TO NEAR 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...AND NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
20-23Z TIMEFRAME. 0-1 KM SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IS QUITE
WEAK AND ONLY AVERAGING AROUND 10 KTS...AND EHI/S ARE QUITE LOW.

GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND AMT OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS WE CURRENTLY HAVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MIDDAY
HOUR...PULSE STORMS /OR EVEN SEVERAL BKN BANDS OF SLOW
MOVING...MULTI-CELL TSRA/ WITH BRIEF STRONG 40KT WIND GUSTS AND UP
1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE UPPER LIMIT TO THE TSRA
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..

MAXES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN FRIDAY. MUGGINESS
WILL REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE M60S-L70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS LYING IN WAIT OVER THE LOWER LAKES. DESPITE THE
DRYING...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN/FORM JUST AS
IS SEEN IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
THUS...TEMPS PROBABLY WONT DROP OFF MUCH BUT THE NRN MTS COULD DIP
TO NEAR 60F BEFORE THE CLOUDS ESTABLISH A PRESENCE. FOG
POSSIBLE...ESP IN PLACES SE WHERE CLEARING COULD TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT FOR TEMPS...MUGGY/MILD MORNING LOWS AND
80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN PESKY IN THE NRN
MTS...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY NOT GET TO 80F. MOISTURE BUILDS UP
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A MINIMUM IN SHOWERS FOR THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT STABILITY REMAINS LOW AND PWATS
STAY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. SO THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS SUN AFTN/EVENING. AGAIN...LITTLE SHEAR SHOULD HELP
KEEP THREAT OF SVR STORMS LOW.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE
DEEPEST MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST
AT THAT TIME. A DECENT DRAW OF GULF MOISTURE IS ON TAP...AND POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS WE GET CLOSER. SO...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MON NIGHT. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...31/00Z GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A MORE AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN SETTING UP DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES INCLUDE A CLOSED
LOW COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH ACRS ERN
NOAM. A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
NWD INTO GREENLAND SUGGESTS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
EVOLVE AND STAY LARGELY IN-PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BEHIND THE DAY 3/MONDAY WELL-DEFINED
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE ERN CONUS WILL BE AWASH IN ABNORMALLY
DRY/BELOW NORMAL PWAT/MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR BEING
DIRECTED SEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MSTR-
STARVED COLD FRONT MAY ACT TO REINFORCE THE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE PATTERN FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THRU THE END
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS WILL STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH 19-20Z WITH A SCT-BKN MID LVL
CLOUD DECK WITH BASES BETWEEN 10-13KFT. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
INVOF KBFD WHERE PERIODS OF BKN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY CLOSE TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CFRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS THE WARM AND JUICY...LATE SUMMER AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO REACH THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT RANGE /AT BEST/ BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR A
KBGM...KUNV...TO KAOO LINE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE SHRA/TSRA WILL RESULT IN MAINLY BRIEF...MVFR TO IFR IMPACTS AT
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS BEGINNING 18-19Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL 23-00Z. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME AS THE BLYR COOLS
AND STABILIZES. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING
VIS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR-IFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM LOW CIGS/FOG. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS.
MON...AM FOG. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS. FROPA.
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR CNTRL AND EAST.
WED...AM FOG PSBL WEST AND CNTRL. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
458 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-010900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
458 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

PAZ034-311900-
BEDFORD PA-
156 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY THROUGH
3PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PLEASANT VALLEY
MARYLAND AND LAKE GORDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND UP TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT OCCASIONAL...DANGEROUS...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LAKE
GORDON...INGLESMITH...RAINSBURG AND CLEARVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 220.

LAT...LON 3972 7875 3974 7875 3997 7850 3993 7826
      3983 7829 3973 7838

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

PAZ026-034>036-312030-
BEDFORD PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD...
FRANKLIN...FULTON AND SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM WELLS
TANNERY TO MCCONNELLSBURG TO HANCOCK...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM
THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SIDELING HILL REST
AREA...MCCONNELLSBURG...AND HARRISSONVILLE...BROAD TOP CITY...AND
WATERFALL...SALTILLO...WHITETAIL SKI AREA...FORT LITTLETON...AND
MERCERSBURG AND THREE SPRINGS.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... WHITETAIL SKI AREA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 162 AND 200...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 170...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23.

LAT...LON 3972 7824 3987 7816 4011 7837 4020 7819
      4029 7773 4000 7754 3972 7764

FORECASTER: LAMBERT