Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES DIVING DOWN THE FRONT-SIDE OF
INTENSIFYING FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL CARVE OUT AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
FIRST WEEK OF JULY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LIMITED HEATING IS PROMOTING SOME PERCOLATION MAINLY TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF MY CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY WITHIN MY FORECAST AREA
BORDERS ARE SEEING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. FAR SOUTHEAST
HAS WARMED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...
AND APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIATION OF DEEPER CONVECTION AS
THE MCV TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPLIT UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS
OVER WESTERN PA PRODUCED A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH HAS
FLATTENED CU AND STRATOCU INTO A NEARLY SOLID BKN-OVC OVER ALL BUT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ THIS
MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHEAR ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...BUT TRIGGERS ARE AVAILABLE FOR AREAS THAT SEE ENOUGH
SUN BREAKS AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

NEAR-TERM MODELS PROG THE MCV OVER THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING WITH JUICY 1.85" PW TO WORK WITH...AND LEE TROFFING OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. DESPITE DECREASED INSOLATION...STILL
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MUCAPES WOULD SOAR INTO THE 1200 TO 1600 J/KG RANGE OVER S CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST AREAS WITH SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...SO THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME SVR STORMS AND LCLY HEAVY TO PERHAPS
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINS. AFTER CONVECTION DECREASES AND
WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THE OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY BE
QUIET UNLIKE LAST NIGHT. EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR CENTRAL PA MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN PA BY THU MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH 2.0" PW OR GREATER INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND ENSEMBLES THU AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER PBZ AREA PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FFA FOR AREAS BORDERING
MY WESTERN COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER CENTRAL PA IS THERE...
BUT LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST AND LESS THAN 0.5"
AMOUNTS ACROSS MY EAST LEAVES US WITH HIGHER FFG GUIDANCE ON THU.
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL IN QUESTION...PW ANOMALIES
SUGGEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STAND THE GREAT CHANCE OF
SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
DRIER THAN THE REST OF MY CWA OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT AND HAVE ADDED
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING A MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HGT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LIFTING
NEWD FM OH ACRS CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY BY FRIDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
/MCC/ THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY DIVERGES ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE MCC BUT THE BIGGEST
DIVERGENCE IS IN THE QPF LOCATION AND AMOUNT. THE EC AND GFS KEEP
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NW MTNS AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE. THE NAM BRINGS 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PA. HAVE LEFT BROAD POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT.

A BROAD CYCLONIC/NWLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY DAY 3/FRI
WITH A UNSEASONABLY LOW/BELOW NORMAL HGTS COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN
U.S. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPS ALOFT. TRAILING
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE BACK-SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
UNSETTLED CONDS...BUT LIMITED MSTR/NEAR NORMAL PWATS SHOULD HELP
CONTAIN BASIN AVG RAFL AMTS. DAY/NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE JUNE NORMALS.

THE 26/12Z GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. THESE DATA SHOW A GRADUAL
WWD MIGRATION OR RETROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH- RIDGE
TROUGH-RIDGE CONFIGURATION FROM THE NERN PACIFIC/GREAT BASIN/GREAT
LAKES/WRN ATLC.

THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND UNSETTLED SENSIBLE WEATHER TREND
INITIATING FROM THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST THERE IS
THE SLIGHT WWD SHIFT IN THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR EAST OF THE APPLCHNS TO RETURN TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NEARLY-STATIONARY N-S FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE
ERN FLANKS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH /CENTERED INVOF 90W/ STILL
LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WEST AND
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOWERED CONDS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THU WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CBS LIKELY AT ALL AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU...AREAS OF AM MVFR FOG/HAZE POSS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SUN...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

PAZ004>006-010-011-270945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-
541 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-270945-
NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-
BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
541 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

PAZ056-057-059-063-262145-
CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-LEBANON PA-PERRY PA-
450 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL PERRY...
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN DAUPHIN AND WESTERN LEBANON
COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WERTZVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT ENOLA...ROCKVILLE...PROGRESS...COLONIAL
PARK...SKYLINE VIEW AND HERSHEY.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... HARRISBURG INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...HERSHEY PARK...CITY ISLAND...PENN STATE COLLEGE OF MEDICINE
AND PENN STATE HARRISBURG.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 246 AND 263...I-78 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 0 AND 1...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 89...I-83
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 50...I-283.

LAT...LON 4020 7680 4020 7682 4022 7684 4021 7689
      4022 7690 4021 7691 4023 7712 4041 7712
      4044 7649 4022 7650 4018 7662

FORECASTER: MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAXTANG                 40.26N  76.83W
06/26/2013                   DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300179

EVANEGO

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