Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. EACH DAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTH
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ENE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. UVVEL IN RESPONSE TO THE THERMALLY INDIRECT LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A JETLET /OVER SCENT PENN ATTM/ AND A POCKET OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA /INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH-LEVEL HEAT SOURCE OF THE
LAURELS...AND SCENT MTNS/ WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE POPS WERE RAISED 20-30
PERCENT TO THE HIGH CHC...LOW LIKELY CATEGORY.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...SO PULSE STORMS AND BRIEF
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS FOR HAIL/MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AS THE RAIN HAIL CORES COLLAPSE.

LOWEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PAINTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF
THE ROUTE 219 CORRIDOR FROM KDUJ TO KBFD THANKS TO SLIGHT
WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND RATHER PRONOUNCED LLVL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW.

HOURLY TEMPS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS. LATE AFTERNOON MAXS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL STAY DOWN NEAR 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW SHOULD GET ABSORBED BUT ANY GHOST OF IT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. THUS...THE LARGER-SCALE FORCING WILL
BE LACKING TONIGHT. SOME SH/TSRA COULD BE PESKY AND HANG ON OR
EVEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND
THUS 20-30 POPS ARE ALL THAT I CAN IN ALL GOOD CONSCIENCE PLACE IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY AGAIN TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS
MCV/S FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE W-E THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE DAYTIME HEAT. TEMPS ALMOST A CARBON COPY /TEENS AND
TWENTY-SOMETHINGS ARE RIGHT NOW WONDERING WHAT CARBON IS/ OF
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
VA/CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY. SREF AND GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASING PWATS INTERACTING WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO NWRLY MID- UPPER FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS THIS WEEK. THE EC...THE NAM AND THE GFS
ARE SHOWING GREAT VARIABILITY. THE EC IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND THE NAM IS LAGGING
BEHIND. THE BIGGEST VARIABILITY IS THE TIMING OF A FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. ACCORDING TO THE EC THIS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS STALLS THIS FEATURE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT IS DRIER AND WEAKER. THE NAM STALLS THE
FRONT AND CORRESPONDING FRONT AND MOVES IT FURTHER SOUTH THAT
BARELY CLIPS PA.
 THE FASTEST WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FAIRLY
STRONG BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SCTD
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY TIME-
FRAME. BOTH THE EC AND GEFS SHOWS WEST TO SWRLY WINDS AT 850 MB
AVERAGING AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH A QUASI-
STNRY EAST/WEST SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION AS EACH WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING WEST/NW
FLOW ALOFT PASSES THROUGH.

 GIVEN ALL THE VARIABILITY HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH GIVEN THE PROBABILITY OF
PWATS TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA. THE SPEED SHEAR PROVIDED
BY THE LLJ WED-THURSDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SIMILAR SITUATION. SO
HAVE CONTINUED THE GRADUAL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ENTER INTO THE
PICTURE. COOLER WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THE PRESENCE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT AND MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS COULD
MAKE IT SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. READINGS WILL SLOWLY COOL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPS LIKELY RETREATING TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST TO SWRLY
SFC WIND IN THE 4-7KT RANGE ACROSS THE EAST...AND 10-15 KTS OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. I

SOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
HEAD FROM THE SCENT ZONES...TO THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR TO BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS.
SOME THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

THIS PATTERN OF HAZE/FOG AT NIGHT AND AFTERNOON POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS/THUNDER COULD BE FRIDAY
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST FRONT AND TROUGH ARRIVE AS ADVERTISED.

OUTLOOK...
MON-FRI...AREAS OF AM MVFR FOG/HAZE POSS. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
119 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

PAZ034-035-241745-
BEDFORD PA-FULTON PA-
119 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 115 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ELLERSLIE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INGLESMITH.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 162.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 220.

LAT...LON 3972 7875 3977 7874 3980 7867 3982 7825
      3972 7826

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

PAZ026-036-056-063-241830-
CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-HUNTINGDON PA-PERRY PA-
126 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON AND SOUTHWESTERN
PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 124 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SHIRLEYSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT DOYLESBURG...BIG SPRING STATE PARK...
BLAIN AND COLONEL DENNING STATE PARK.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 205
AND 212.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 4020 7790 4029 7790 4032 7772 4026 7770
      4033 7763 4036 7741 4016 7741

FORECASTER: CERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

PAZ049-050-052-058-241830-
NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-UNION PA-
135 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SNYDER...SOUTHEASTERN UNION...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND AND WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...

AT 132 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MIDDLEBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT FREEBURG...SELINSGROVE...RESLER...
REBUCK AND TREVORTON.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY 147...
ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 61.

LAT...LON 4063 7657 4064 7669 4066 7671 4065 7675
      4070 7719 4088 7718 4093 7656 4090 7657
      4089 7656

FORECASTER: CERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

PAZ051>053-058-241900-
COLUMBIA PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
158 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL NORTHUMBERLAND...
NORTH CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL...SOUTHEASTERN MONTOUR AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA
COUNTIES...

AT 157 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR KNOEBELS...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT CATAWISSA...NUMIDIA...CENTRALIA...
GIRARDVILLE...RINGTOWN AND NUREMBURG.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... KNOEBELS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 243 AND 247...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125
AND 135.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...STATE
ROAD 61.

LAT...LON 4077 7604 4077 7659 4095 7661 4104 7623
      4095 7620 4092 7605

FORECASTER: CERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

PAZ037-041-241845-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-TIOGA PA-
210 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN TIOGA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AT 205 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEAR BLOSSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT BLOSSBURG...ROSEVILLE AND OGDENSBURG.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... MANSFIELD UNIVERSITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 15...
STATE ROAD 14.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4161 7687 4159 7682 4149 7678
      4163 7733 4198 7732 4201 7713 4200 7693

FORECASTER: CERU

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