Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED...

SVR WATCH #211 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES...

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS STRATIFIED CU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. LAPS SOUNDINGS STARTING TO DESTABLIZE
WITH SFC TEMPS APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND UP TO 1400 J/KG
ABOVE THE LFC. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WV HAS CONTINUED TO BUT THIS
AREA HAS OVERALL BEEN WEAKENING AND SLIGHTLY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AND EVENTUAL INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH THE AREA
IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE...AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... WESTERN
PA WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS
30-40 KT 850 MB JET NOSES INTO EASTERN OHIO. WITH CIN APPEARING TO
DISSIPATE ON SCHEDULE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST. WITH SPEED
SHEAR OF 25 TO 40 KTS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND
CLUSTERS INTO THIS EVENING. PEAK INTENSITY LKLY BTWN APPROX
21-03Z.

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH MAXES
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...~10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AREA REMAINS IN SPC SEE TEXT OUTLOOK THURSDAY. GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PREFRONTAL WARMING/PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT WHICH COULD PROMOTE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
EAST.

CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF THE EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER IT MAY BE AT SLOWER PACE AS SOME
MODEL DATA IS TRENDING SLOWER/SHARPER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE ERN PART OF THE CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

A LIGHTER...DEFORMATION PCPN AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE
AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-
SCALE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GRT LKS TWD WV. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE
MODEL DIFFS HEADING INTO DAY 3 SURROUNDING THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF
THE H5 TROUGH CROSSING THE MID-ATLC REGION. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LGT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 55-65F. A BIT OF A RANGE DUE
TO THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MODE AND TRENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AS IT WOULD LINGER LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA
/ESP IN THE EAST/ INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT FULLY BUY-INTO THIS
GIVEN HOW STRONG IT WAS WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW COMPARED TO THE
OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES EXTENDING SWD FROM
NUNAVUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY MEMORIAL
DAY. ENS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW NEGATIVE THERMAL/MOISTURE ANOMS
SUPPORTING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IN THE NRN AND WRN MTNS SAT/SUN AM. THE GROWING SEASON
IS UNDERWAY IN THIS AREA /AS OF MAY 20TH/ AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FROST IN HWO. ELSEWHERE LOW TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY BY LATE-MAY STANDARDS...BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST.

Q-STNRY/WARM FRONTAL ZONE INITIALLY CENTERED FROM IA-WV SHOULD
SLOWLY RETURN NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC DIFFS
IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PARTICULARLY UPSTREAM. IN GENERAL...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
EARLY-MID WEEK WARMING TREND WITH HTS RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEEN UPDATING TAFS FOR CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

SEVERAL SPS ISSUED...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...NOTHING
SEVERE SO FAR. DECENT CAP...BEST DYNAMICS TO THE WEST...AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SE...NOT QUITE IN PHASE TO FIRE UP
STORMS YET...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SCT SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSBY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z LOWER SUSQ.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPS SE OF PA.

.OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW CIGS ETC...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-231830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-TIOGA-
229 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-231830-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
229 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
629 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

PAZ012-041-045-046-222315-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
629 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLINTON AND CENTRAL
LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AT 625 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DUNNSTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT JERSEY SHORE...SALLADASBURG...GARDEN VIEW...
COGAN STATION AND TROUT RUN.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE LITTLE LEAGUE WORLD SERIES
COMPLEX AND LOCK HAVEN UNIVERSITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 182...I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22
AND 29.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
220...STATE ROAD 14...STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4130 7682 4103 7741 4121 7770 4155 7714
      4155 7709

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
634 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

PAZ056-063-222300-
CUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-
634 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND
AND SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 630 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
CARLISLE SPRINGS TO NEWBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BLOSERVILLE AND SHERMANSDALE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 202 AND 227...I-81 NEAR
MILE MARKER 44.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
11/15...ROUTE 322/22.

LAT...LON 4012 7756 4014 7760 4019 7763 4020 7761
      4022 7761 4037 7756 4051 7697 4021 7715
      4009 7756

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
639 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

PAZ019-026>028-045-049-050-056-222315-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-
SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-UNION PA-
639 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JUNIATA...MIFFLIN...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON...NORTHERN PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN CENTRE...
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...WESTERN SNYDER AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES...

AT 634 PM EDT...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM TUSSEY MOUNTAIN SKI AREA TO BIG SPRING STATE PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT POE VALLEY STATE PARK...MILLHEIM...WEIKERT AND
THOMPSONTOWN.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE PENNSYLVANIA MILITARY MUSEUM
AND TUSSEY MOUNTAIN SKI AREA.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 191 AND 198.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
22/522...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 26...STATE
ROAD 45.

LAT...LON 4042 7797 4075 7788 4108 7717 4107 7711
      4108 7708 4045 7707 4025 7767 4027 7766
      4029 7767 4025 7773

FORECASTER: RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATTON                  40.63N  78.65W
05/22/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CAMBRIA
            COUNTY.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COALPORT                40.75N  78.53W
05/22/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
            CLEARFIELD COUNTY.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADERA                  40.83N  78.44W
05/22/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIXFORD                 41.93N  78.49W
05/22/2013                   MCKEAN             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0621 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEARFIELD              41.02N  78.44W
05/22/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHINGLEHOUSE            41.97N  78.19W
05/22/2013                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN.

0639 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW BELLEFONTE         40.88N  77.81W
05/22/2013                   CENTRE             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BENNER TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300066 CTP1300070 CTP1300065 CTP1300064 CTP1300068
CTP1300067 CTP1300069

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

PAZ004-005-230000-
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
715 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF KINZUA
DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MARSHBURG AND BRADFORD.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH -
BRADFORD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD
59.

LAT...LON 4200 7891 4200 7840 4180 7890 4193 7908
      4201 7899

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

PAZ056-057-063>065-230000-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-PERRY PA-YORK PA-
732 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ADAMS...EASTERN
CUMBERLAND...EASTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN DAUPHIN AND WESTERN YORK
COUNTIES...

AT 730 PM EDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
CARLISLE SPRINGS TO EMMITSBURG...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SHERMANSDALE...NEW BLOOMFIELD AND BOILING
SPRINGS.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE GETTYSBURG NATIONAL MILITARY
PARK...SKI ROUNDTOP SKI AREA...GETTYSBURG COLLEGE...MESSIAH COLLEGE
AND PENN STATE DICKINSON SCHOOL OF LAW.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 219 AND 239...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 40 AND 65.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE HARRISBURG
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
209...ROUTE 322/22...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

LAT...LON 4053 7724 4055 7718 4059 7717 4063 7697
      4060 7692 4063 7686 3972 7697 3972 7738

FORECASTER: RXR