Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FAIR WEATHER TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EVENING RADAR LOOP SHOWS A STEADY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...AS LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS OF THE OVERNIGHT FCST REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL OF SVR WX...AS ALL MDL DATA SHOWING A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. ALL
MDL DATA INDICATES THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WGUSTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE N MTNS...CLOSEST TO PATH OF VIGOROUS MID LVL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM QLCS STRUCTURE
ACROSS OHIO SUGGESTS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT RATHER THAN TORNADO
THREAT...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS THE N
MTNS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM SHEAR AND LOW LCL HGTS.

STRONGEST WGUSTS UPSTREAM ARE OCCURRING WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FROPA...WHERE STEEP LPS RTS COINCIDE WITH CORE OF STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND NR TERM MDL
DATA...THIS WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BTWN 04Z-08Z
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...06Z-10Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND 08Z-12Z
EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. 850 WINDS ARE PROGGED IN THE 50-70KT
RANGE...SOME 3-4STD ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT THE LINE TO BRING
BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND THE INITIAL BLAST OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THEN OVERALL GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KICK IN
AND GUST IN THE 25-45MPH RANGE FOR A TIME. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG ISSALOBARIC SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL BUT THE SE COUNTIES THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES ARND
09Z...LEAVING PA IN A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES...AT
LEAST INITIALLY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD WITHIN THE NEW AIR MASS.

DRY SLOT SHOULD PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH A MSUNNY AND
SEASONABLE MONDAY...DESPITE BEING RATHER WINDY. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NOVEMBER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY DRAW
INCREASING LAKE MOISTURE INTO THE NW COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTN...WITH A FEW -SHSN POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL/TROF PASSAGE ON MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
FLOW WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWESTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. A PRONOUNCED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TOWARDS PA NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF
COAST...WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE LATE WEEK UPPER TROF WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS PA ON SATURDAY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES
FOR PCPN DURING THIS FORECAST PD...NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW OR RAIN
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT FCST NOT BAD...HAVE BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. BEST MOISTURE TO THE SW...WHILE
SYSTEM IS LIFTING NE...THUS PERHAPS KEEPING STORMS FROM
BEING STRONGER AS THEY COME INTO OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE WILL PULL A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WIND FIELDS ARE VERY
STRONG...THUS ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT
COULD RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. FOR NOW...ONLY
HAVE THUNDER AT BFD...BASED ON WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER
OH. LLWS FOR ALL TAFS.

SKIES CLEAR LATE...AS STRONG DRY SLOT MOVES IN.

WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...GIVEN WIND FIELDS.

DEWPOINTS FALL OFF ON MONDAY...THUS EXPECT VFR CIGS.

PERHAPS LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUE...SOME SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AT BFD AND MAYBE AT JST IN UPSLOPE
FLOW. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...THUS ACTIVITY MAY BE
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY AT JST.

LATER TUE INTO THU...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...LOCALLY MVFR OVER THE NW WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS POSSIBLE...WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-
024-033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ012-018-019-025-034-
037-041-042-045-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1106 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

PAZ012-018-019-025-034-037-041-042-045-046-190415-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-BEDFORD-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
1106 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ005-006-010-011-017-024-033-190415-
MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
1106 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-190415-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1106 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-190415-
WARREN-
1106 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
907 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

PAZ017-024-180230-
CAMBRIA PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
907 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CAMBRIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 904 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DERRY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT BELSANO AND NORTHERN CAMBRIA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 219...
ROUTE 422.

LAT...LON 4051 7891 4072 7881 4081 7881 4088 7871
      4063 7847 4034 7901

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1007 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

PAZ004-005-010-180345-
ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
1007 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
WARREN...WESTERN MCKEAN...AND NORTHWESTERN ELK COUNTIES THROUGH 1045
PM EST...

AT 1000 PM EST...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST WERE LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF ELGIN TO COLUMBUS TO
GRAND VALLEY TO PLEASANTVILLE TO SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT BEAR LAKE...WARREN...SHEFFIELD...WESTLINE AND LEWIS RUN.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH
AT BRADFORD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 66.

LAT...LON 4200 7851 4159 7856 4143 7906 4144 7907
      4146 7906 4146 7901 4148 7897 4162 7897
      4162 7960 4178 7956 4190 7958 4193 7962
      4200 7961

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

PAZ005-006-180430-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCKEAN AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EST...

AT 1055 PM EST...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE LOCATED FROM
BRADFORD TO KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SHINGLEHOUSE...OSWAYO AND ULYSSES.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...STATE ROAD
46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 446...STATE ROAD 449.

LAT...LON 4200 7771 4183 7778 4172 7858 4200 7861

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1126 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGWAY                 41.43N  78.73W
11/17/2013                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300507

EVANEGO

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