Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
AND THE STRONG FRONT WHICH WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST AND
GET REINFORCED WITH COLDER AIR SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND OUR COLD WEEKEND TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR EAST. THE 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEST TEMPERATURE AND QPF TWEAKS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL FALL IN
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD END IN THIS PERIOD IN WESTERN AREAS. SOME
RAINFALL COULD LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS.

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE RAPID CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE LAKES
WITH -4 TO -5 SIGMA MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALIES. THE STRONG
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS IN THE 70-80KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TOTAL WIND ANOMALIES IN THE
MODELS-GEFS-SREF-NAEFS ARE ALL +5 OR GREATER SIGMA LEVEL
OVERNIGHT. IN THE NAEFS THE WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE ABOUT A
30 YEAR RETURN PERIOD. EXTREMELY RARE.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IT IS OFTEN HARD TO GET WINDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTS TO THE SURFACE.

ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THE 850 HPA WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG BUT
STILL +3 TO +4 SIGMA AND 50-60KTS. WITH THE SLOPED ISENTROPES
THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MIXING THESE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN WEST SHOULD BE A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 6AM. THERE IS ALSO AN ISALLOBARIC HIGH FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 8-9 MB OVER OH AND WESTERN PA AND A STRONG ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL PA IN THE 5AM TO ABOUT 2 PM TIME RANGE. THIS
FAVORS A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST AREAS IN CENTRAL PA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT
RANGE. WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN TIER. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR WINDS OVER 40 KTS WOULD
BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN THIS THE LEE SLOPES WOULD BE THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD BUT WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE THREAT OF
WIND GUSTS OVER 40KTS SHOULD END AROUND NOON.

ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IMPLIES LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN WEST
AND NOT MUCH OF RAIN THREAT IN THE EAST MUCH AFTER ABOUT NOON. A
GUSTY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD. SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY...SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE SUNNY WITH CLOSE TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A BIT WINDY...NOT A GOOD DAY TO BICYCLE OR RAKE LEAVES...BUT
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS
SHOULD REALLY ABATE BY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST
NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTY.

THE MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE GRT LKS
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW WILL DIRECT SEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND
PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS
AND CENTRAL MTNS...PRIMARILY LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THIS
ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM
THE CNTRL APLCHNS TO ALONG THE NORTHEAST /MID-ATLC COAST THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK. VEERING LOW- LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST-SE MAY LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME LOW CLOUDS WITHIN A MARITIME FLOW
REGIME.

WITH THE RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN
TO REMAIN WEST OF PA THRU MIDWEEK. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD MORNINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ATTM. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN THIS WAY...UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECTING A BAND OF
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A
SHARP...WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN A FAIRLY RAPID RETURN TO
MVFR THEN VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS.

BIGGER STORY IS STRONG WIND FIELDS AHEAD...ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT.
GOOD LLWS CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS...WITH VERY STRONG
LL SOUTHERLY JET OF 50-70 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 KNOTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO WSW. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL
FOLLOW FROPA...SO EVEN THOUGH LLWS PRETTY MUCH ENDS A FEW HOURS
AFTER FROPA...WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL STILL BE VERY STRONG WITH
GOOD MIXING TO THE SURFACE.

CURRENT TIMING OF FROPA IS ABOUT 08Z AT KBFD...10Z AT KUNV...AND
11Z-13Z KIPT/KMDT.

QUICK DROP OFF IN WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR
CIGS ACRS THE WRN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCT/NMRS LK EFF SHRA NW...MVFR LIKELY. VFR SE. GUSTY WNW WINDS.
SUN...MVFR/LK EFF -SHRA SHRA NW EARLY...THEN BCMG VFR.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR UNDER SFC HIGH PRES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/STEINBUGL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

PAZ004-010745-
WARREN PA-
300 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 255 AM EDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN WARREN
COUNTY. STRONG WINDS...GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH...WILL OCCUR OVER THE COUNTY WITH THESE SHOWERS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS WILL AFFECT GRAND VALLEY...TIDIOUTE...GARLAND...YOUNGSVILLE AND
SUGAR GROVE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
STATE ROAD 59.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4184 7891 4183 7895 4180 7895
      4162 7896 4165 7962 4179 7963 4200 7960

FORECASTER: JUNG