Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS State College, PA

025 
WWUS51 KCTP 021749
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
149 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

PAC083-123-021830-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-130902T1830Z/
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
149 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SCANDIA TO SCANDIA TO YOUNGSVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRING 
CREEK...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WARREN AROUND 200 PM EDT...
  GARLAND AROUND 205 PM EDT...
  KINZUA DAM AROUND 210 PM EDT...
  BRADFORD AND MARSHBURG AROUND 215 PM EDT...
  LEWIS RUN AROUND 220 PM EDT...
  CHAPMAN STATE PARK AROUND 225 PM EDT...

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING... UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT
BRADFORD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 4191 7961 4200 7940 4200 7846 4186 7866
      4176 7915 4182 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 285DEG 24KT 4200 7886 4188 7902
          4187 7933 4182 7957

$$

FORECASTER: LAMBERT/TYBURSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MIDDAY HOUR...WITH
A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR.

THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL CREATE ONE OR TWO BROKEN LINES OF
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NW MTNS BETWEEN
19-22Z.

BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLIER...EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD DECK  ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY CAUSING THE CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA TO RAMP UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT GRINDS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CWA.

ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT IS PRESENT TODAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN THE VERY WARM/JUICY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FCST
AREA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PWATS OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES.

THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA HAS 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF
3.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE REDUCED THIS SAME GUIDANCE TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. THE LOWEST VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS
/NORTH OF KIPT/...THOUGH THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARE
TRAILING NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.  THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT HIGH...
OR WIDESPREAD-ENOUGH TO POST A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
LATEST SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE  SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT /BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET SLIDING EAST FROM THE GLAKES/ WILL
BE ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

POPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR
THE NEXT ONE-THREE HRS WHERE RADAR TRENDS WITH SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE USED AS THE BASIS FOR POPS.

ENJOY THE HOLIDAY...AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND/OR RADAR TO STAY
SAFE FROM STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MANY MILES AWAY FROM WHERE IT
IS RAINING. PLAY IT SAFE...AND MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT IS ALMOST CUT OFF /SAY THAT THREE TIMES FAST/.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD STAY AN OPEN WAVE FOR THE MOST PART AND NOT
TILT NEGATIVELY. THUS...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PROBABLY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
COOLER...SOMEWHAT DRY AIR WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF IT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. WILL CARRY POPS INTO THE EVENING...BUT
MAKE THE FORECAST DRIER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE POP/WX FORECAST
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. TUES A.M. LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE SERN HALF
OF THE AREA...HOLDING ABOVE 60F. BUT THE COOLER AIR AND LOWERED 8H
TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW THE NWRN COS TO GET /WELL/ INTO THE 50S.

SUNSHINE AND TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY ARE A COMBINATION
WHICH COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS. CANNOT TAKE POPS
OUT TOTALLY SINCE MANY MDLS GENERATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
DAY. MAXES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE NW...BUT STILL A
FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SE. DEWPOINTS DO GET INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEYOND TUESDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC...THE NAM AND
THE CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NOAM. A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC NWD INTO GREENLAND SUGGESTS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE
SLOW TO EVOLVE AND STAY LARGELY IN-PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT SHOULD LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW...SEASONABLE AVERAGES...LATE
NEXT WEEK.

THIS WILL BE BEHIND A MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
REINFORCE THE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. OVERALL...THE PATTERN FAVORS NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THRU
THE END NEXT WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE THE PROPAGATION OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB...AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AT 850MB. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER HOWEVER GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND MODEL VARIABILITY HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT /AND
PRE-FRONTAL...LAKE BREEZE TROUGH/ PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO
FAR NWRN PENN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
BANDS OF SLOW MOVING...POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
TSRA INTO THIS EVENING.

SKIES AND VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE WRN MTNS AND LAURELS ON THE
WEST/SWRLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA IMPACTS
TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP BFD.
WED...AM FOG PSBL WEST AND CNTRL.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
446 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-030900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
446 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVY
RAIN MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.