Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
326 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE MIDWEST SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION AND THEN STALLS NEAR THE
MASON- DIXON LINE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVING TROUBLE BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE WINTER LIKE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN WITH
LOW LEVEL NE AG FLOW WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CWA. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ACROSS AREA BUT
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING INTO AREA FROM THE W. ANTICIPATING
THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THE MOVE EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...THOUGH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY SHORT LIVED DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY STAYING IN THE 60S
WITH DEWPOINTS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THEN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A PW SURGE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION
ON THU AND WILL KEEP THE POPS HIGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE SOLUTIONS AS TO THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL BE OPPRESSIVE...LIKELY
TOPPING 70 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST. AIR FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A MOIST AIR FLOW AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND...OR
UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.

ATTEMPTS IN RECENT DAYS FOR THE FRONTS/MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
EASTWARD BY OR THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE SLOWED BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. HAVE THUS LEANED PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTION NOT ONLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LAY TO
THE SOUTH OF PA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
RUN ALONG IT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION WITH
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A TEMPO TO
DEAL WITH BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THU-FRI AS FRONTAL WAVES
MOVE ACROSS REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SAT-SUN...RETURN TO MAINLY VFR AS FRONT IS FCST TO BRIEFLY PUSH
SWD...HOWEVER THE LATEST MDL RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY
IMPACT SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...ROSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

PAZ017-024-033-082000-
CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
359 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ010-011-018-025-034-082000-
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-BEDFORD-
359 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004>006-012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-082000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
359 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RXR