Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE OF THE SAME IN STORE FOR TODAY...WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COOKING UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS GENERATE THE MOST CAPE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...IN
RESPONSE TO WHERE THE BEST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BE. THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SPC DOESN/T OUTLOOK THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH WE ARE IN SEE TEXT.
THE SHEAR ALOFT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT OF THE TN/OH
VALLEYS. AS A RESULT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AS ACTIVITY INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FOCUSING IS WEAK...SO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY DOESN/T SEEM LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE
WAVE DRIFTING NORTH IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW /YESTERDAY LOCATED IN W
NC/ WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE FOCUSED LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
COMBINED WITH MODERATE FLOW AND CAPE...COULD GENERATE MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS POSS. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN THE HRRR...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BEGIN PICKING UP AFTER 18Z IN
THE SW...AND IF SCENARIO PLAYS OUT - TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN SUNDAY.
ANOTHER VERY SUMMERY EARLY JULY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES IN TRACKING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AMAZINGLY PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROF THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ACTED AS A MOISTURE PUMP INTO
THE NE US FOR OVER A WEEK AND ITS DEMISE WILL MARK A TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

THE BEST FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS LATER
TONIGHT...DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL LULL IN INSTABILITY. IT WILL
LIKELY KEEP A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY
BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. ENSEMBLES AGREE IN SHUNTING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS EAST
OF THE AREA...AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
ALL COMBINE TO LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY.

TEMPS FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SE WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL FOR A TIME EARLY TO MID WEEK...WITH PA BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
VULNERABLE TO CONVECTION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

A STRONGER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATER WED OR THU AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR SLIDES OUT OF THE GR LAKES.

FROM THERE THE UPPER PATTERN ADVERTISED IN SOME LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE TAKES ON A LOOK THAT IS EERILY FAMILIAR TO WHAT WE HAVE
JUST EXPERIENCED...WITH A NEW CUTOFF LOW FCST TO FORM OVER THE
EASTERN US...AND A RENEWED SURGE OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US. A
POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL
OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THAT THE TROPICAL MODELS TRACK INTO THE
BAHAMAS BY LATE WEEK...MAKING A TANTALIZING FEATURE FOR THE
EASTERN US TROF TO PERHAPS INTERACT WITH.

WHAT HAS BEEN INTERESTING SO FAR THIS JULY HAS BEEN THE RATHER
HIGH LATITUDE THE BERMUDA RIDGE HAS OCCUPIED FOR SO EARLY IN THE
SEASON. THE LATEST PROGS ONCE AGAIN HAVE A STRONG CLOSED UPPER
HIGH AT UNUSUALLY HIGH LATITUDES BY NEXT WEEKEND. IF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM CAN MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER...IT WOULD SUGGEST THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WOULD BE VULNERABLE IN ABOUT A WEEK'S TIME. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR NOW FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE DISORGANIZED ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
POSS FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALFOF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...DEVELOPING NEAR
KJST-KAOO AFTER 18Z AND POSS IMPACTING KMDT-KLNS AFTER 22Z.

AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD PA MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER HIGH PROB OF SHRA AND TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. ISOLD THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. SCT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
POSS...MAINLY DURING THE PM HOURS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ033-071745-
SOMERSET PA-
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 1242 PM EDT...A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BRUCETON MILLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS
STORM MAY AFFECT ADDISON...MOUNT DAVIS...GARRETT...BERLIN AND
SHANKSVILLE THROUGH 145 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100
AND 129.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 40...ROUTE
219.

LAT...LON 3971 7939 3973 7941 3982 7937 3985 7942
      3990 7941 4009 7926 4012 7921 4012 7919
      4018 7914 4001 7876 3982 7875 3972 7881

FORECASTER: RXR