Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UNSEASONABLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WHICH COULD
LAST INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO INCLUDE THE EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...

SVR WATCH #386 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CENTRAL PA
THROUGH 800 PM THIS EVENING. ENHANCED SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IN
THIS AREA WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIAL
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. PULSE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAVE
PRODUCED MARGINAL HAIL AND ONE SEVERE REPORT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WELL.

SEVERAL TRIGGERS ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING IS NOW SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ONTARIO TOUCHING OFF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WATCH THESE FOR PULSE HAIL AND LOCAL
STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND
HOPE THEY REMAIN NORTH OF YDY/S RAINFALL MAX OVER NORTHWEST
CLEARFIELD COUNTY.

WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME BREAKS IN THE LAYERED STRATO AND ALTOCU CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND
SOME HAIL. IN THE MORE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOME BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST 4KM SPC WRF SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION
WITH RAPID STORM MOTIONS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SURE.

STILL...THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THU WITH LESS OF A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY
DWINDLE BY LATE EVENING WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLY
MORNING FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL DIP BY AROUND 0.50 INCH TONIGHT...AND
PERIODS OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF NICELY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN WHERE LOWS EARLY SAT WILL VARY FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. LINGERING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS ACRS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
60S.

DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS A FEW...TO SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS GIVEN CLOUDIER SKIES AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.

THE UNSEASONABLY LOW HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN PA ON SATURDAY...A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RTS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR PM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST 00Z/03Z
GEFS AND SREF GUIDANCE. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS INDICATE SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP READINGS COOLER ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN US IS FORCING ONE OF THOSE RARE FORECASTS
FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF REDUNDANCY DEPARTMENT.

DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SOUND TEDIOUS AND
REPETITIVE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ISN'T A PERIOD THROUGH
THE WHOLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE SEEMS LIKE THE REGION WILL NOT
SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOWER THAN NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS...CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE NEXT
WEEK...WITH HINTS THAT THE THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE A
RESURGENCE INTO THE EASTERN US TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...HINTING AT A
WARMER BUT STILL STILL HUMID AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU LATE AFTN...WITH
SOME STG-SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SWRN-SCNTRL
AIRFIELDS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN LGT WINDS AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS/RESIDUAL
BLYR MSTR.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
211 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049-291815-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
211 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS NEW RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-291815-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
211 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
LOCALIZED DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS NEW RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ050>053-291815-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
211 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
LOCALIZED DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS NEW RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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