Alert archive / Pennsylvania / River Flood Warnings in 2013

River Flood Warning 7, NWS State College, PA

October 11, 2013Cumberland County, York County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this river flood warning at Oct 11, 2013, 4:34 AM EDT for Cumberland County, York County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Oct 11, 2013, 6:46 AM EDT. It was in force for 34 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 11, 2013, 4:34 AM EDT (08:34 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 11, 2013, 6:46 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 12, 2013, 5:05 PM EDT
In force
34 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Cumberland County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Yellow Breeches Creek near Camp Hill (CPHP1). The gauge peaked at 11.39 ft at Oct 12, 2013, 1:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderate051010/1110/1210/13
Action stage
6 ft
Minor stage
7 ft
Moderate stage
9 ft
Major stage
13 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01571500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

141 
WGUS41 KCTP 110834
FLWCTP
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE, PA HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA...

  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-133-112034-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FL.W.0007.131011T1442Z-131012T1200Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.131011T1442Z.131012T0000Z.131012T0600Z.UU/
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE, PA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
* FROM THIS MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...5.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 7.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$
10 follow-up statements
449 
WGUS41 KCTP 111047
FLWCTP
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA...

  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-133-112247-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.131011T1046Z-131013T1400Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0600Z.131013T0800Z.UU/
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...7.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$
714 
WGUS81 KCTP 111410
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK ABOVE MIDDLETOWN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PAC041-133-120210-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131013T1400Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0600Z.131013T0800Z.UU/
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 10 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$

PAC043-075-107-120210-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0009.131011T1700Z-131012T1434Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.131011T1700Z.131012T0000Z.131012T0834Z.NO/
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-120210-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.131011T1600Z-131012T2100Z/
/MTLP1.1.ER.131011T1600Z.131012T0600Z.131012T1500Z.UU/
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK ABOVE MIDDLETOWN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND CREST NEAR 11.6 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

$$

PAC043-075-120210-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.131011T1500Z-131012T1500Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.131011T1500Z.131012T0000Z.131012T0900Z.NO/
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 7.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS. SEVERAL ROADS 
  ARE AFFECTED.

$$
376 
WGUS81 KCTP 111926
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK ABOVE MIDDLETOWN

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

PAC041-133-120726-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131013T1400Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0600Z.131013T0800Z.UU/
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 3 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$

PAC041-120726-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0011.131012T0600Z-131013T1000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0600Z.131012T1500Z.131013T0400Z.NO/
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 2 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 8.5 FEET BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-107-111956-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131012T1434Z/
/HTVP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 2 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8.7 FEET AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED.  WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-111956-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-131012T2100Z/
/MTLP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK ABOVE MIDDLETOWN.
* AT 3 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10.0 FEET AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


$$

PAC043-075-120725-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131012T1500Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.131011T1435Z.131012T0000Z.131012T0900Z.NO/
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 3 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 7.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS. SEVERAL ROADS 
  ARE AFFECTED.

$$
355 
WGUS81 KCTP 120152
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 

&&

PAC041-133-121352-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131014T1400Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T1200Z.131014T0800Z.UU/
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 9 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...NUMEROUS HOMES ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF YELLOW 
  BREECHES CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS.

$$

PAC041-121352-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0011.131012T0148Z-131014T1300Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0148Z.131013T0000Z.131014T0700Z.NO/
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND CREST
  NEAR 9.8 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-121352-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131013T0800Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.131011T1435Z.131012T1200Z.131013T0200Z.NO/
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 9 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 8.6 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE EVENING TOMORROW.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS. SEVERAL ROADS 
  ARE AFFECTED.

$$

PAC071-133-121352-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131012T2000Z/
/LNCP1.1.ER.131011T2336Z.131012T0600Z.131012T1400Z.NO/
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER.
* AT 9 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET AND CRESTING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS WILL CREST NEAR 11.4 FEET LATE TONIGHT. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
* AT 11.0 FEET...GROFFTOWN ROAD WILL FLOOD.

$$
856 
WGUS81 KCTP 120409
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1209 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-133-121609-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131014T1400Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T1200Z.131014T0800Z.UU/
1209 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 12 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...NUMEROUS HOMES ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF YELLOW 
  BREECHES CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS.

$$

PAC041-121609-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131014T1300Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0148Z.131013T0000Z.131014T0700Z.NO/
1209 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 12 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-121609-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131012T1800Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.131011T1435Z.131012T0130Z.131012T1200Z.NO/
1209 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 12 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC071-133-120439-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131012T2000Z/
/LNCP1.1.ER.131011T2336Z.131012T0115Z.131012T0251Z.NO/
1209 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER.
* AT 11 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11 PM FRIDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 4.7 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 11.0 FEET...GROFFTOWN ROAD WILL FLOOD.

$$
497 
WGUS81 KCTP 120750
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-133-121950-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131014T0300Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0531Z.131013T2100Z.UU/
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE CREEK HAS CRESTED WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* AT 11.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF YELLOW 
  BREECHES CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC041-121950-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131014T1312Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0148Z.131013T0400Z.131014T0712Z.NO/
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE CREEK WILL CREST NEAR 9.6 FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 
  THE CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-121500-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131012T1500Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.131011T1435Z.131012T0130Z.131012T0900Z.NO/
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS 
  MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
371 
WGUS81 KCTP 120904
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
503 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-133-122104-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131013T1400Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0531Z.131013T0800Z.UU/
504 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 5 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 11.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF YELLOW 
  BREECHES CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC041-122104-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131014T1312Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0148Z.131013T0400Z.131014T0712Z.NO/
504 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 5 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE CREEK WILL CREST NEAR 9.6 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
  THE CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-121500-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131012T1500Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.131011T1435Z.131012T0130Z.131012T0900Z.NO/
504 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 5 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
269 
WGUS81 KCTP 121415
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1015 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

PAC041-133-130215-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131013T0600Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0531Z.131013T0000Z.UU/
1015 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  EVENING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$

PAC041-130215-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131013T2200Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0148Z.131013T0000Z.131013T1600Z.NO/
1015 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.3 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$
605 
WGUS81 KCTP 121821
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
221 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

&&

PAC041-130621-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131013T1500Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.131012T0148Z.131012T1345Z.131013T0900Z.NO/
221 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 2 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-130300-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131013T0300Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0531Z.131012T2100Z.UU/
221 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 2 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$
230 
WGUS81 KCTP 122105
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
505 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

PAC041-133-122135-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-131013T0300Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.131011T1005Z.131012T0531Z.131012T1923Z.UU/
505 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 5 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 3 PM SATURDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 3.9 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

EVANEGO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 11, 2:59 AM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 2:59 AM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...CHANNELING DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE
EAST COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LVL RIDGING IS LIKELY TO
BUILD INTO PA EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND A FEW ADJACENT SCENT PA
COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z SAT...WHILE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN CITIES AND TOWNS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z TODAY.

A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE AREA OF ANOMALOUS STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX
/PLUS 2-3 SIGMA/...AT THE NOSE OF A -3 TO -4 SIGMA EASTERLY LLJ
WILL STAY INTACT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AND SAGGING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION
OF BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS MELDING INTO A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SCENT MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQ.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM PRACTICALLY
NOTHING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219 IN WESTERN PENN /AND ALSO
ACROSS ERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES/...TO BETWEEN
0.75-1.5 INCHES IN THE REGION BOUNDED BY KUNV...KSEG...KMDT AND
KAOO. LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE
JUST TO THE WEST OF A KMDT TO KSEG LINE

THE OFFICIAL RAINFALL AT KMDT FOR THURSDAY WAS A HEFTY /AND DAILY
RECORD/ 4.02 INCHES...WITH AN EVEN MORE EXTREME 4.51 INCHES AT KCXY.
SIMILAR...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO COME
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...ESP JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET/PWATS REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE LWR SUSQ
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF MDL QPF
/AND RADAR TRENDS/ SUGGESTS THAT TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
AT THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE PLUMES BY LATE TODAY...AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING 5-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...ESP NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE GREATER
HARRISBURG AREA. A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS COUNTIES JUST
WEST OF THE MIDDLE SUSQ MAINSTEM...AND THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE JUNIATA BASIN. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN /ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER END
TOTALS/ MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...SO WE MAY CONSIDER
EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO THE NW OF THE
CURRENT AREA.

LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARREN COUNTY IN THE NW
MTNS...AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAURELS.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60F TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA...WHERE A RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL FALL. MEANWHILE...WARMER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE LACK OF RAIN AND A
DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND COULD PUSH READINGS TO THE U60S ACROSS WARREN
CO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
WANE FRI NITE AS UPPER LOW VERY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAIN
/IN THE SE/ TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD STILL YIELD OCNL LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE ENSEMBLE DATA REMAINS STEADY IN ITS PLACEMENT OF
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WIND/PWAT SIGNATURE. CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT
LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT...WITH LOWS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 50F.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH UPPER LOW FURTHER SE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE DATA STUBBORNLY KEEP A LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA
THRU THE WEEKEND. SO DIDN/T CHANGE SAT/SUN FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY
AS CHC FOR LINGERING LGT RAIN/AND ESP DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SC COUNTIES THRU SUNDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD NIGHTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
60S THIS WEEKEND /WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH
ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVAP COOLING FROM DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

GRADUAL TRANSITION TO BRIGHTER AND DRIER CONDS ARE LIKELY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHEN WE FINALLY LOSE THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWER CLOUDS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MON BEFORE THE
RIDGE FINALLY WINS OUT WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

MODELS DIFFER BY MID LATE WEEK ON DETAILS AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT. BUT LOOKS LIKE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES WED IN THE WEST AND THU FOR ALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE VA/WV BORDER AND SFC LOW
JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST COMBINED WITH AREA OF HIGH PRES IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND/SERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN AN ANOMALOUS EAST/NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACRS THE NRN MID-ATLC. THIS WILL SUPPORT MVFR TO
LIFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OR MARGINAL VFR EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN.
RADAR TRENDS AND COSPA DATA SHOW THE RAIN REACHING BFD BY 09Z AND
WILL NEED TO AMD THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CIGS ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY LOWER /IFR/ THAN FCST AT AOO/JST AND WILL ALSO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ASIDE FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING VIS BLW
3SM...CIG TRENDS IN THE SE AIRFIELDS SEEM TO WANT TO HOLD AOA IFR
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...MVFR TO IFR IN AREAS OF RAIN/DZ.
TUE...VFR TO MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 4.02 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG
YESTERDAY OCTOBER 10TH 2013. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.50
INCHES SET BACK IN 1894. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN
KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ035-036-056-057-059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 3:49 AM EDT, 45 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

PAZ026>028-035-036-050-056-057-059-063>066-120800-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SNYDER-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
OF FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN CITIES AND TOWNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-018-019-025-034-041-045-046-049-051-052-058-120800-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-BEDFORD-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-SCHUYLKILL-
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STEADY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHTER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AND MINOR FLOODING OF OF DRAINAGE AREAS
AND ALONG SOME SMALL STREAMS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-042-053-120800-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-TIOGA-
SULLIVAN-COLUMBIA-
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LAMBERT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 10, 10:44 PM EDT, 5 hours 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLOOD            MIDDLETOWN              40.20N  76.73W
10/10/2013                   DAUPHIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            BOROUGH OFFICIAL REPORTED LOTS OF STANDING WATER AND
            LOW ROADS ARE FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300454

MACH
Local storm report, Oct 10, 11:00 PM EDT, 5 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     FLOOD            SPRING GROVE            39.88N  76.86W
10/10/2013                   YORK               PA   PUBLIC

            STREET... FIELDS AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300455

MACH
Local storm report, Oct 10, 11:05 PM EDT, 5 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1105 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLOOD            SHIPPENSBURG            40.05N  77.52W
10/10/2013                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADS AND YARDS FLOODED ANKLE DEEP

1015 PM     FLOOD            MIDDLETOWN              40.20N  76.73W
10/10/2013                   DAUPHIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            BOROUGH OFFICIAL REPORTED LOTS OF STANDING WATER AND
            LOW ROADS ARE FLOODED

1054 PM     FLOOD            SPRING GROVE            39.88N  76.86W
10/10/2013                   YORK               PA   PUBLIC

            STREET... FIELDS AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300453 CTP1300454 CTP1300455

MACH
Local storm report, Oct 11, 3:44 AM EDT, 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
344 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLOOD            SHIPPENSBURG            40.05N  77.52W
10/10/2013                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADS AND YARDS FLOODED ANKLE DEEP

1015 PM     FLOOD            MIDDLETOWN              40.20N  76.73W
10/10/2013                   DAUPHIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            BOROUGH OFFICIAL REPORTED LOTS OF STANDING WATER AND
            LOW ROADS ARE FLOODED

1031 PM     FLOOD            COLUMBIA                40.03N  76.50W
10/10/2013                   LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

            FRANKLIN DR BLUE LANE AREA FLOODED GUARDRAIL UNDER
            WATER

1054 PM     FLOOD            SPRING GROVE            39.88N  76.86W
10/10/2013                   YORK               PA   PUBLIC

            STREET... FIELDS AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES

1110 PM     FLOOD            LEWISBERRY              40.14N  76.86W
10/10/2013                   YORK               PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FISHING CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS COVERING BRIDGE

1215 AM     FLOOD            1 SSE SHREINERS         40.07N  76.35W
10/11/2013                   LANCASTER          PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            CARS STUCK IN 4FT OF WATER LANDIS MILL BRIDGE SHREINER
            STN AT BLUE JAY DR

0248 AM     FLOOD            NEWPORT                 40.48N  77.13W
10/11/2013                   PERRY              PA   PEMA

            ROCK SLIDE ROAD CLOSURE U.S. 322 WB BTWN MILLERSTOWN
            NEWPORT EXITS IN HOWE TWP

0300 AM     FLOOD            HARRISBURG              40.28N  76.88W
10/11/2013                   DAUPHIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            N CAMERON ST CLOSED BOTH EB WD NEAR U.S. 22 VIA FOX43

0300 AM     FLOOD            HARRISBURG              40.28N  76.88W
10/11/2013                   DAUPHIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HWY 230 CLOSED BOTH EB WB AT SYCAMORE ST VIA FOX43

0310 AM     FLOOD            MANCHESTER              40.06N  76.72W
10/11/2013                   YORK               PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            N SUSQ TRL BOTH EB WB CLOSED BTWN GWEN DR AND CHURCH
            ROAD MANCHESTER TWP VIA FOX43

0310 AM     FLOOD            TAXVILLE                39.96N  76.81W
10/11/2013                   YORK               PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            BAKER RD CLOSED BOTH EB WB BTWN HADLEY DR AND RT 234
            DOVER TWP VIA FOX43

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300453 CTP1300454 CTP1300463 CTP1300455 CTP1300456
CTP1300457 CTP1300462 CTP1300458 CTP1300459 CTP1300460 CTP1300461

STEINBUGL

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 8:03 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill3 hr
Oct 10, 9:04 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Sullivan3 hr
Oct 10, 9:26 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lebanon, Perry36 hr
Oct 10, 10:54 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPCentre, Clinton, Columbia, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lycoming and 7 more3 hr
Oct 10, 11:04 PM EDTFlood WatchCTPAdams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon and 7 more21 hr
Oct 11, 1:37 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPBedford, Centre, Clinton, Columbia, Fulton, Huntingdon and 9 more14 hr
Oct 11, 6:52 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lebanon24 hr
Oct 11, 7:11 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin8 hr
Oct 11, 7:11 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill8 hr
Oct 11, 10:06 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPCumberland47 hr
Oct 11, 3:30 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPBedford, Blair, Centre, Columbia, Fulton, Huntingdon and 7 more4 hr
Oct 11, 5:50 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPLancaster, York6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.