River Flood Warning 3, NWS State College, PA

023 
WGUS81 KCTP 311502
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1002 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PAC061-010302-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0002.130131T2000Z-130201T1200Z/
/SLYP1.1.ER.130131T2000Z.130201T0000Z.130201T0600Z.NO/
1002 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 11.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG EXCEEDS ITS 
  BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED.

$$

PAC043-075-107-010302-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0003.130131T1600Z-130201T1200Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.130131T1600Z.130201T0000Z.130201T0600Z.NO/
1002 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 10.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-010302-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0004.130131T1800Z-130201T1300Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.130131T1800Z.130201T0000Z.130201T0700Z.NO/
1002 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND CREST NEAR 7.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS. SEVERAL ROADS 
  ARE AFFECTED.

$$

PAC071-133-010302-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0005.130131T1622Z-130201T0800Z/
/LNCP1.1.ER.130131T1622Z.130131T2100Z.130201T0200Z.NO/
1002 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 12.0 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* AT 13.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC013-061-311532-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1845Z/
/SPKP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK.
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7.2 FEET...AND WILL CONTINUE
  FALLING TO 3.2 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS...AFFECTING 
  SEVERAL HOMES.

$$

277 
WGUS81 KCTP 312021
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
321 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONOSTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

PAC071-133-010800-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130201T0800Z/
/LNCP1.2.ER.130131T1558Z.130131T2100Z.130201T0200Z.NO/
321 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER.
* AT 3 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 13.2 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 13.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC061-010645-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130201T0645Z/
/SLYP1.1.ER.130131T2300Z.130201T0000Z.130201T0045Z.NO/
321 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 3 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE TODAY AND
  CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG EXCEEDS ITS 
  BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED.

$$

PAC043-075-107-010600-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130201T0600Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.130131T1932Z.130131T2100Z.130201T0000Z.NO/
321 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 2 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND WILL CREST NEAR 9.1 FEET BY LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED. WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-075-010800-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130201T0800Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.130131T2315Z.130201T0000Z.130201T0200Z.NO/
321 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 3 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND
  CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET LATER THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

051 
WGUS81 KCTP 312259
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
559 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED {**** ENTER GENERIC TIMING 
FOR NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT.  I.E. "LATE THIS EVENING"*****}

&&

PAC071-133-010700-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130201T0700Z/
/LNCP1.1.ER.130131T1558Z.130131T2030Z.130201T0100Z.NO/
559 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER.
* AT 5 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  EVENING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC061-312329-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130201T0645Z/
/SLYP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
559 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 6 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9.8 FEET...AND WILL CONTINUE
  FALLING TO 5.5 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG EXCEEDS ITS 
  BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED.

$$

PAC043-075-107-312329-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130201T0600Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.130131T1945Z.130131T2015Z.130131T2045Z.NO/
559 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 5 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 4 PM THURSDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 3.4 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED.  WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-075-312329-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130201T0800Z/
/HERP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
559 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 6 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6.8 FEET BY TONIGHT.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW...REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS...WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE ALLEGHENIES AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL
PA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. AFTER
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN MOST
AREAS...THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS BACK TO WINTERTIME HAZARDS. VERY
STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STG LLVL CAA
WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT BLYR MIXING TDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW FQNT WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STG ISALLOBARIC PRES
RISES WILL ALSO AID IN GENERATING PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND ADVY...THEREFORE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINE.

STRONG/PERSISTENT NW FLOW TRAJECTORIES DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND LCL HVY SQUALLS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU INTO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THRU TNT. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL TO -15 TO
-18C BY THE END OF PERIOD...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
SUPPLIED VIA SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING
SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HEIGHT FALL CENTER ASSOCD WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO SHIFT ESEWD THRU THE OH VLY ACRS
THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS /SW PA AND THE WV/MD PNHDLS/ LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS OVER THE
NW MTNS/LAURELS. A SFC WAVE SHOULD FORM EAST OF THE APPLCHNS AND
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT DEFORMATION SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SRN TIER ZONES INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.

UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR WARREN COUNTY AND ADDED
A LAKE EFFECT ADVY FOR MCKEAN. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER PROTRACTED
LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONTINUING INTO DAY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NMRS SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS OVER THE ALLEGHENY RIDGES ON FRI SHOULD
BECOME DISORGANIZED FRIDAY NGT...AS WIND PROFILES SHIFT BACK TO
THE WSW. HIGH PRES MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND HELP SHIFT BANDS TO A MORE
PARALLEL ORIENTATION/ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.
THEREFORE...MOVED THE END TIME OF THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES BACK
TO MIDNIGHT SAT. STORM TOTAL SNOWS OF 2-4" ARE EXPECTED IN MCKEAN
CNTY WITH 4-8" IN WARREN. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NW WARREN SNOWBELT. ANOTHER COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA.

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM ON THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY. THE FIRST LOW WILL STREAK EWD THRU THE OH VLY ACCOMPANIED
BY A BURST OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADV. THE SECOND CLIPPER WILL DROP
SEWD FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF
WAA AND DEFORMATION TYPE SNOWS ARE LKLY ON DAY 3 AND MAY SPILL
INTO DAY 4. DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AT SHORTER
RANGES...BUT IN GENERAL LGT ACCUMS APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE ACRS A LG
PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF THESE LOW-AMPLITUDE/FAST-MOVG
SYSTEMS IS LKLY TO BE VARIABLE AT THIS RANGE...BUT IT APPEARS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA COULD PICK UP SOME SNOW. THE GFS
AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA TODAY. SFC OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO ARND 40KTS
EARLY THIS AM...AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SIMILAR STRENGTH GUSTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN
12Z-14Z...SUPPORTING SOME BRIEFLY LOW VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE W MTNS. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR STRATOCU AND OCNL -SHSN AT BFD
AND JST. FURTHER EAST...A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL DRY OUT AS IT
DESCENDS THE MTNS...RESULTING IN ONLY SCT FLURRIES AND MAINLY VFR
CIGS AFTER 12Z.

WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN IN THE
15-25KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTN.
SAT...REDUCED VSBYS IN LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP JST.
SUN...SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
MON...PM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AUTOMATED GAGES SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMTS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS
COMBINED WITH COLD SEASON HYDRO EFFECTS ARE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON ALL CENTRAL PA WATERWAYS...WITH SHARPER RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS...CREEKS AND TRIBS. THE RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE SLOWER ON
THE MAINSTEM POINTS. SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE
CAUTION/ACTION STAGES WITH MINOR FLOODING FCST AT A FEW POINTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
PAZ004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-010945-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ005-010945-
MCKEAN-
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004-010945-
WARREN-
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ024-033-010945-
CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN SOMERSET
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

PAZ006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-311200-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-
523 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...ICY ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...

FAST MOVING SNOW SHOWERS...ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING...WILL PRODUCE ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IF TRAVELING...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
650 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

PAZ006-010>012-017-018-024>026-033-037-041-042-311330-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-
650 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...ICY ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...

FAST MOVING SNOW SHOWERS...ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING...WILL PRODUCE ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IF TRAVELING...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLOOD            LANCASTER               40.04N  76.30W
01/31/2013                   LANCASTER          PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NMRS WATER RESCUES AND SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED ESP IN THE
            NRN PART OF THE CNTY

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CATAWISSA               40.95N  76.46W
01/31/2013                   COLUMBIA           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF STRUCTURE RESTING ON UTILITY WIRES

0654 AM     FLOOD            YORK                    39.96N  76.73W
01/31/2013                   YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NMRS ROADS CLOSED. ONE WATER RESCUE IN WASHINGTON TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300004 CTP1300005 CTP1300006

STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
839 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-041-045-046-049-050-056-311430-
BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-HUNTINGDON PA-
JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-UNION PA-
839 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
PERRY...CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...CLINTON...MIFFLIN...NORTHERN
BLAIR...NORTHERN CAMBRIA...NORTHERN HUNTINGDON...NORTHERN
JUNIATA...SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON...SOUTHERN ELK...SOUTHERN
LYCOMING...WESTERN SNYDER AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES...

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS
COVERED PORTIONS OF BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CAMERON...CENTRE...
CLEARFIELD...CLINTON...ELK...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LYCOMING...
MIFFLIN...PERRY...SNYDER AND UNION COUNTIES AT 836 AM EST. THE SNOW
SQUALLS WERE GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW
WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES IN THESE SNOW SQUALLS TO LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF A MILE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 204...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 32
AND 85.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
22...ROUTE 22/522...ROUTE 119...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ALTERNATE
ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 422...ROUTE 522...STATE
ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 45...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 153...STATE
ROAD 255...STATE ROAD 350...STATE ROAD 453.

LAT...LON 4139 7821 4121 7690 4043 7723 4050 7891
      4072 7881 4113 7881 4122 7872 4134 7909

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
906 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

PAZ012-017>019-045-311500-
CLEARFIELD PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
906 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
CLEARFIELD...NORTHERN CENTRE AND SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF SNOW SQUALLS COVERED PORTIONS OF CENTRE...CLEARFIELD AND
CLINTON COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRRIDOR AT 856 AM EST.
THE SNOW SQUALLS WERE GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW
WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES IN THESE SNOW SQUALLS TO NEAR ZERO...
WHICH WILL CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON INTERSTATE 80
AND SECONDARY STATE ROUTES. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...ROUTE
220...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4104 7807 4108 7776 4117 7749 4118 7740
      4111 7741 4101 7759 4092 7801 4095 7881
      4107 7881

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
928 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

PAZ019-045-046-049-052-311530-
NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-UNION PA-
928 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CENTRE...NORTHERN
UNION...NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL LYCOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 924 AM EST...A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS EXTENDED FROM 3 MILES NORTH
OF BELLEFONTE TO CARROLL...PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
THE SQUALLS WERE MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THROUGH 1030 AM...THE SQUALLS WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE ALONG I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND
212...AND I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
147...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD 120.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THESE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALLS.

LAT...LON 4116 7716 4113 7701 4111 7681 4098 7686
      4101 7702 4099 7724 4094 7752 4096 7769
      4098 7776 4118 7740

FORECASTER: DEVOIR