Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS State College, PA

324 
WGUS71 KCTP 280859
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

PAC111-281345-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130828T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET PA-
459 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 450 AM EDT...THE SOMERSET 911 CENTER REPORTED TWO ROAD CLOSURES
AND 5 FLOODED BASEMENTS IN JENNER TOWNSHIP AND BOSWELL BOROUGH. 

ROUTE 601 IS CLOSED IN JENNERS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ACOSTA...
BOSWELL...DAVIDSVILLE...FRIEDENS...JEROME AND TIRE HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 7906 4029 7893 4028 7890 4025 7889
      4024 7883 4002 7894 4005 7921

$$

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE LATE-SUMMERTIME UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MAINLY DRY AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR/SATL COMPOSITE INDICATES AN UPTICK IN HVY CONVECTIVE
RAINS EVOLVING ESEWD ACRS SE LWR MI/LAKE ERIE INTO NE OH AND WRN
PA. MSTR IN THIS REGION IS RUNNING VERY HIGH WITH PWS BTWN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES...AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY. THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS SETTING UP FROM XTRME NE
OH/NW PA SEWD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WITH PWS RUNNING +2SD
ABOVE THE MEAN OR 175-200% ABOVE NORMAL PER BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT...LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES AND TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. 1-3HR
FFG VALUES IN THIS REGION /SOMERSET-CAMBRIA COUNTIES/ ARE ONLY
1-1.5 INCHES...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL MTNS WITH THE LOWEST
POPS THRU 12Z ALONG/E OF THE SUSQ VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHTS DO DIP A LITTLE FURTHER AS FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE NWRLY.
DEEPENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE WITH THE EXPECTED SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE AND MCS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW
DISSIPATION TO CLOUDS/FOG DURING THE MORNING. BUT SHORT RANGE NUM
GUID DOES POP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME. WILL
TAKE A FEW DEGS OFF THE MAX TEMPS IN THE WEST DUE TO THE CLOUDS.
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ME KEEP STRONG
CONTINUITY WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR ALL DAY - WITH HIGHER
VALUES OVER THE SW. BUT THERE COULD BE A DRYING TREND FROM N-S
THROUGH THE AFTN. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS JUST YET...SO WILL
HOLD ONTO A CHC POP IN THE N THRU 20Z...THEN ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES
DOWN ON SLIGHT NRLY WIND TO HELP DECREASE POPS TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WED THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND /WITH 850MB
TEMPS LINGERING AROUND +16C/.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PULLING A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PA ON WED...WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO HELD ON TO MENTION OF SCT
TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVE. THOUGH BROAD YET WEAK
AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THU INTO
FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH TO TAKE THE
HUMID AIRMASS ALONG WITH IT...SO CAPES FORECAST TO RECOVER ENOUGH
TO KEEP MENTION OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE WEEK.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SCT TSTMS SAT AND ESP SUNDAY.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF FROM MONDAY ONWARD. AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WWD...THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE NE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
CENTER OF LOW TRACKING ACROSS E CANADA. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TO A NOTICEABLY DRIER/COOLER ONE FOR MIDWEEK AS
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO NORMAL. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING 850MB TEMPS
MAY DIP 10C...AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT A
MINIMUM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LAURELS...AND COULD AFFECT
JST AND AOO BY SUNRISE.
 THERE ARE CURRENTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE SHOWERS...AND THESE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING.
TODAY WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL KEEP MVFR LOCKED IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SXNS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE OVER
EASTERN AREAS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD OVER THE SOUTH EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE.

FRI-SUN...VFR BUT WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-290700-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
259 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ024-033-290700-
CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
259 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.