Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS State College, PA

467 
WGUS71 KCTP 230456
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

PAC043-071-075-133-230600-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130723T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-YORK PA-
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR 
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN LEBANON...NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER AND EXTREME 
SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN COUNTIES...

AT 1236 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN EXITING QUICKLY 
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
OF 3 TO 4 INCHES THAT FELL JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF YORK...AND 
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES NEAR CORNWALL...MOUNT GRETNA...AND 
KLEINFELTERSVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS 
AND CREEKS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING  
WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL ALSO BE COMMON THROUGHOUT 
SOME RURAL AREAS AND IN A FEW TOWNS....ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF 
CORNWALL. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL COME IN THE 
FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MEASURE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN 
INCH.  

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
LAWN...CORNWALL...WEIGELSTOWN...YORK...MOUNT GRETNA...AND 
KLEINFELTERSVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7700 3983 7700 3986 7695 3989 7699
      3992 7697 3995 7698 4019 7678 4026 7662
      4025 7654 4036 7620 4026 7605 3997 7644
      3971 7692

$$

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

924 
WGUS71 KCTP 230603
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
203 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

PAC043-071-075-133-230613-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130723T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-YORK PA-
203 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR YORK...SOUTHEASTERN
LEBANON...NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER AND SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN COUNTIES...

THE WATERS FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS ARE RECEDING AND NO LONGER
POSE A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DALLASTOWN...
HANOVER...PARKVILLE...RED LION...SPRY...WEIGELSTOWN...YORK...AKRON...
COLUMBIA...EAST PETERSBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...EPHRATA...LITITZ...
MANHEIM...MOUNT JOY...CORNWALL AND MIDDLETOWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

LAT...LON 3972 7700 3983 7700 3986 7695 3989 7699
      3992 7697 3995 7698 4019 7678 4026 7662
      4025 7654 4036 7620 4026 7605 3997 7644
      3971 7692

$$

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE OVERHEAD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WITH THIS UNSETTLED
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT IT WILL FEEL MUGGY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING OHIO
VALLEY SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT UPR JET ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE.

PERSISTENT LLVL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND A FEW WEAK/ILL DEFINED...EAST/WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION /ALONG WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-2
INCHES TO BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...ESP WHERE TRAINING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSRA OCCUR.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NOTICEABLY LOWER /LESS THAN 2
INCHES PER HOUR/ ACROSS THE LAURELS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
/THROUGH TONIGHT/ WAS ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING.

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALSO EXISTS TO A LOWER EXTENT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AREA AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
FFG VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER - ALMOST TWICE AS HIGH. HAVE INCLUDED
CLEARFIELD CO IN THE WATCH...AS THEY HAVE EXPERIENCED ALMOST-DAILY
RAIN FOR A FEW WEEKS...AND HAD SOME PRETTY BAD FLOODING NOT SO
LONG AGO.

HOWEVER...ONE OF PERSISTENT/TRAINING TSRA WAS OCCURRING JUST EAST
OF KHAR AND KMDT /FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTY/ WHERE
FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE CITY OF LEBANON
WHERE SEVERAL ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS WERE CLOSED. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES WILL ADD TO THE 2-3 INCHES
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXACERBATE
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO
CONCENTRATE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHEST MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...FROM HARRISBURG...TO WILLIAMSPORT AND
BRADFORD. PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHTER...THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME PINPOINT AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES SO FAR TODAY.

ISOLATED POCKETS - LIKE RIGHT HERE AT THE OFFICE...COULD SEE
FLOODING WITH LOWER RAIN TOTALS DUE TO RAIN YESTERDAY OR THE DAY
BEFORE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
STARTS TO END...AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS BY THE MORNING...BUT LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IS THEN POSITIONED OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ONGOING
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH TO THE NE DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY -
ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT FOR THE TIME- BEING. BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP IN THE
EASTERN ZONES. SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA COULD APPCH THE WRN ZONES VERY
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE THERE FOR THE
DAY. MAXES WILL BE COOLER IN THE SE...BUT JUST A DEG OF TWO F
LOWER THAN TODAY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. WINDS DO PICK UP A BIT
IN THE WEST...SO THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD MIX A BIT
AND IT MAY FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BECOMING MORE BROAD MIDWEEK...BEFORE SHARPENING AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY TUE NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS PA. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION IN EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY TUE EVE...BUT THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS DROPPING ACROSS GLAKES AND INTO PA TUE
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE NW HALF...AS FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES CWA.

WED INTO THU...DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOWER
LEVELS. AN ISO TSTM WILL REMAIN POSS IN THE SE...BUT REGION WILL
SEE A BREAK FROM THE DAILY RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS WED WILL BE 5-10F
COOLER THAN TUE...AND RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALSO BRING NOTICABLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS...POSS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN TIER THU MORNING AND
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCALES. HIGHS THU RECOVER A BIT BACK
TOWARD NORMAL.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW SHARPENS ACROSS THE GLAKES SENDING
A COLD FRONT OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THAT...MOISTURE BEGINS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING RETURN OF
DAILY TSTM CHANCES BY SAT. BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WITH RIBBON OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING DIFFS REMAIN BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS AGAIN
BECOMING MORE MILD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVR OHIO EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TONIGHT. AS OF 00Z WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW TSRA ARE FALLING ACROSS PA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
FALL. AS OF 00Z...ONLY LOCALIZED SPOTS OF IFR NOTED UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. HOWEVER...COOLING/MOISTENING OF BLYR SHOULD
RESULT IN FALLING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...A SCENARIO BACKED BY
LATEST SREF OUTPUT...AS WELL AS BLYR RH OF THE 18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH
IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...BEST CHC WILL BE AT
BFD...WHERE MOIST SERLY FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA. AT
JST...BEST CHC OF LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 11Z-15Z
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN WNW FLOW FORCES
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AFTER EARLY SHRA/LOW CIGS AND VSBYS...EXPECT IMPROVING FLYING
CONDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AM...AS LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST. BY
AFTN...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY...AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A LATE DAY OR EVENING TSRA COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NW MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE
FROM THE GRT LKS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ017-024-033-
034.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

PAZ017-024-033-034-231515-
CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-231515-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
628 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 40.34N  76.42W
07/22/2013                   LEBANON            PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL ROADWAYS NEAR QUITTAPAHILLA CREEK IN THE CITY
            OF LEBANON ARE FLOODED.

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEBANON                 40.34N  76.42W
07/22/2013                   LEBANON            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL SIDE STREETS AND ALLEYS ARE FLOODED IN THE CITY
            OF LEBANON.

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W LEBANON             40.34N  76.44W
07/22/2013                   LEBANON            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            THE TUNNEL BEHIND THE LEBANON VALLEY MALL IS FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300319 CTP1300320 CTP1300321

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
949 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

PAZ065-066-230245-
LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
949 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL LANCASTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

AT 947 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR NORRISVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM
WILL AFFECT FAWN GROVE...SUNNYBURN...HOLTWOOD AND SHENKS FERRY.

LAT...LON 3972 7659 3996 7642 3988 7616 3972 7643

FORECASTER: LAMBERT