Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS State College, PA

566 
WGUS71 KCTP 011340
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
940 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

PAC023-027-033-035-047-081-083-105-011445-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130701T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-CENTRE PA-
LYCOMING PA-CLINTON PA-
940 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING...NORTH CENTRAL
CENTRE...SOUTHERN POTTER...SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN...EASTERN ELK...
NORTHERN CLEARFIELD AND CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 930 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CAMERON...EASTERN ELK...NORTH CENTRAL 
CENTRE...NORTHERN CLEARFIELD...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN 
LYCOMING...SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN AND SOUTHERN POTTER COUNTIES.

AS OF 930 AM THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FALLING FROM NEAR DUBOIS EASTWARD 
TO THE VICINITY OF KETTLE CREEK STATE PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS 
APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE BEING ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DUBOIS...
TREASURE LAKE...ST. MARYS...SKI SAWMILL SKI AREA AND PENN STATE
DUBOIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7760 4154 7760 4155 7740 4150 7722
      4097 7804 4108 7881 4116 7880 4121 7877
      4121 7872 4124 7874 4179 7837

$$

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.

QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT
11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF
A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.

THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.

THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.

0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.

HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.

IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.

DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS FOR THE 01/12Z CYCLE.

NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL/LCL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE
TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-021115-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
707 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM REPEAT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE DEEP...
AND ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LAMBERT