Tornado Warning 20, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

292 
WWUS54 KCRP 311459
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
959 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TXC057-311507-
/O.EXP.KCRP.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-131031T1500Z/
CALHOUN-
959 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1000 AM CDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. GUSTY WINDS ARE 
STILL EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 2834 9639 2815 9673 2824 9681 2826 9680
      2827 9679 2825 9677 2822 9678 2820 9672
      2829 9662 2831 9666 2827 9673 2834 9670
      2852 9648 2844 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 231DEG 30KT 2837 9649

$$

PZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHRA
AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES THIS MORNING...TEMPORARILY
IMPACTING SITES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BOUNCE
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

SHORT TERM...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO FUNNEL DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...AND PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. MODELS
HAVE SPED THE TIMING OF THE FROPA UP SLIGHTLY...AND NOW EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TODAY.
A STRONG UPPER LVL JET WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION...THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ALL COMPONENTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED LAYER...AND EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND WITH CURRENT
FFG ABOVE 3 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...DO NOT FEEL THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...IF FRONT
WERE TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM. AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING (WITH STRONG WIND)...MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MENTIONABLE CHANCES OVER
LAND ENDING THIS EVENING.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOWS TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND WITH LIGHT NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND THE
LOW TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING EAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS. OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY USHERING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOL NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
TO MID 50S CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST INTO SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM
BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THIS SCENARIO BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF MAIN SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL SEEMS LIKELY THOUGH AND HAVE RETAINED THE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS. AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THURSDAY/DAY 8.

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SEAS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. AS FROPA OCCURS THIS EVENING WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET
TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  62  85  62  79  /  50  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          82  56  82  54  78  /  80  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            88  65  87  61  81  /  30  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  61  86  60  80  /  50  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          84  63  81  62  78  /  70  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           85  57  85  54  80  /  50  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  62  86  60  81  /  50  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  67  82  64  78  /  50  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

LK/84...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
520 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TXZ229>234-239>247-011030-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
520 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG (WIND)
TODAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-011030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
520 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 8
FEET...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
TODAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS ON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LK/TB