Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED
DRG THE 09-14Z TUESDAY PERIOD AND GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE
281. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY ALSO OCCUR YET MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST/OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A TRANSITION FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS TUESDAY.
EXPECT LGT WIND OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
ROTATED INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND...ALONG WITH A MOIST AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...IS ASSISTING WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS TOWARDS SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH THE VORT MAX SHEARED OVER THE
AREA...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MORE UNSTABLE MARINE AREAS...POSSIBLY WORKING
INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH DRIER AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CRP CWA. THERE IS STILL A SPOKE OF PVA FROM
CORPUS CHRISTI NORTHEAST TO VICTORIA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MARGINAL
POOL OF MOISTURE...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING WILL OCCUR AS
UPPER RIDGING SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. MOIST
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM
FURTHER...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. GENERAL MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 90S OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS...AND EXISTING THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE INCREASES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...COULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO...INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY...MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD
BE THE GREATEST GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER IN...WITH COOL NIGHTS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THE COOLEST OF NIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  86  69  86  69  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  83  64  84  65  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            69  91  71  93  71  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             65  87  67  88  68  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  80  69  81  69  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           64  88  67  91  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        66  87  69  87  69  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  81  70  82  70  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
212 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
212 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI.

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             4 N ROBSTOWN            27.86N 97.66W
04/29/2013  0.25 INCH        NUECES             TX   COCORAHS

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL AROUND 730 PM AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF FM 1889 AND FM 624.

&&

IBLAYLOC

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