Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN BAND OF SHRA HAS DEVELOPED ALREADY FROM
NEAR LRD-HBV. ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH TSRA ALSO
POSSIBLE...AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING ALI AND VCT AND POSSIBLY NQI/CRP. GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW TSRA COULD BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH...WEST INTO THE EWX CWA. A VORTICITY MAX WAS SWINGING
THROUGH THE BASE...AND WAS IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE
CRP CWA. 12Z CRP SOUNDING REVEALS MOIST AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND FORCING FROM VORT INCREASES. THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR
THAT WORKS INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATELY MOIST UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND
THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS IS WHERE BAND OF HIGHER 40 KT BULK SHEAR
RESIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  84  69  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          64  83  65  84  64  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            69  92  71  94  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             65  87  68  87  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  69  76  69  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           64  87  67  91  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        66  86  69  87  69  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  79  70  80  70  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JR/76...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
212 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
212 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND WILL BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI.

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ244-246-291830-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
104 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND SAN
PATRICIO COUNTIES...

AT 1257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF BAYSIDE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TAFT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAYSIDE BY 130 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
121 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE TAFT              28.04N 97.38W
04/29/2013                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY
            188 AND FM 631. REPORTED BY AN AFFILIATE WITH LAW
            ENFORCEMENT. NO DAMAGE...NO INJURIES. MAGNITUDE UNKNOWN
            AT THIS TIME.

&&

DVOGELSA