Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND. 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS AND MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG
EXIST OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL BEND
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS EVENING. CONVECTION TO NW
OF THE REGION MAY MOVE SE INTO S TX THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE AT
ANY ONE TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SIGNIFICANT AMENDMENTS TO TAFS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...BECOMING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE...WORST FLIGHT RULES AT KVCT/KCRP AND BEST AT KLRD.
TRANSITIONING TO VFR DURING DAY MON ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SE WINDS
TONIGHT BECOMING MODERATE DURING DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  68  83  68  /  20  10  10  40  60
VICTORIA          65  83  66  80  62  /  30  10  10  50  80
LAREDO            69  91  69  87  66  /  20  10  20  40  40
ALICE             66  88  67  85  67  /  30  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  78  68  76  66  /  20  10  10  40  70
COTULLA           67  88  67  84  64  /  40  10  20  50  50
KINGSVILLE        67  87  68  83  69  /  20  10  10  40  50
NAVY CORPUS       69  77  69  79  69  /  20  10  10  40  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TT/89...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
508 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ229>234-239>247-011000-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
508 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM JUST NORTH OF LAREDO TO ALICE TO VICTORIA...FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE
THE RISK OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA REGION.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-011000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
508 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ240-241-010030-
DUVAL-JIM WELLS-
656 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
DUVAL AND JIM WELLS COUNTIES...

AT 651 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF RANCHO DE LA PARITA...OR 18 MILES
NORTH OF SAN DIEGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TMT

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