Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

187 
WWUS84 KCRP 272342
RFWCRP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013

TXZ229>234-239>247-280045-
/O.EXP.KCRP.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130228T0000Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
542 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO
WILL THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO SLOWLY REBOUND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

$$

RG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
517 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF'S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
LATER THIS MORNING THEN REACH THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
GUSTS RANGING FROM 22 TO 28KTS. N WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SHORT WAVE MOVG ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWA TODAY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MV INTO THE WRN CWA THRU MID MORNING THEN REACH THE
COASTLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON (18-20Z). VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THEREFORE NO PRECIP EXPECTED NOR MUCH CLOUD
COVER EITHER OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS. THE FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. AS THE
FRONTAL BDRY MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN...BUT NOT  NEARLY AS HIGH AS LAST
MONDAY'S SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY BUT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WITH WEAK TO MOD NLY WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THU. TODAY'S HIGHS AER EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS WITH SOME LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT AND THU. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN CWA TO MID 40S.
HIGHS ON THU ARE PROGD TO BE APPROX 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF S TX.

MARINE...A GENERALLY WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SW THEN W THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N AND STRENGTHENING TO MOD LEVELS. N WINDS
TONIGHT WILL AT TIMES BE MOD TO STRONG...WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT. N WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THU.

FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MV ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS BY MID MORNING...REACHING THE COASTLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FROPA WILL REINFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. GENERALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF S TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. MN RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY/INTERIOR COASTAL BEND AND 25-35 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE COMBINED WIND AND LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THREAT TODAY. THE THREAT WILL START ACROSS THE
WEST AND SPREAD E THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF S TX...ALTHOUGH THE E AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LATER
IN THE DAY AND NOT LAST AS LONG AS THE WEST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SERIES OF FRONTS/HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES DOES NOT REALLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO COME BACK IN TIME
TO BRING ANY REASONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SO FORECAST WILL BE DRY. GFS IS SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE
COMING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
AS PWATS NOT EVEN UP TO 0.75 INCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR AS WAVE IS POTENT AND COULD GET AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES (NOT
WORTH PUTTING IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME). AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
FOLLOWS WAVE WHICH BRINGS YET ANOTHER BOUNDARY/RIDGE THROUGH AREA
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EASTERN AREAS AND SCA FOR THE WATERS.
COOL WEEKEND THEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
RETURN FLOW. BREEZY IF NOT WINDY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DEEPENING
LOW IN THE PLAINS AREA AND WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMES
DOWN TUESDAY BUT IT LOOKS AS IF AVAILABLE MOISTURE GETS PUSHED TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST SO WILL NOT HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FRONT EITHER. IN A NUTSHELL...RAIN CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE...COOL WEEKEND
AND WARM START TO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (MAINLY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS AS LOWS RELATIVELY PLEASANT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  43  67  41  71  /   0   0   0  10   0
VICTORIA          71  37  64  34  68  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            79  45  70  45  74  /   0   0   0  10   0
ALICE             77  40  69  38  73  /   0   0   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          75  49  66  42  69  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           74  37  67  38  70  /   0   0   0  10   0
KINGSVILLE        77  40  69  38  73  /   0   0   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       74  50  65  48  68  /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...
     DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013

TXZ229>234-239>247-281030-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
428 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-281030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
428 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TE/GW