Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING DIURNAL
CONVECTION ENHANCED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC TROUGH AXIS LYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL BEND WL DIMINISH BY 02Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS WL
REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE GIVEN ENHANCED 0-1KM SR
HELICITIES IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND NUMEROUS
OUTFLOWS. ALSO THE OVERAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUED TO INDICATE
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT AND CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM JUST
NORTH OF DFW TO AROUND JUNCTION IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ENTER THE
NRN CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TNT. IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE SEWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND PRE-
DAWN HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE
IN ASSCTN WITH THE FRONT. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
WL QUICKLY ERODE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
TUE AFTN. BASICALLY A TEMP FCST THEREAFTER. GENERALLY LEANEDS TWDS
THE COOLER ENVELOPE OF TEMPS FOR TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STILL
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
WEEKEND. PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST AND
A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRIEFLY INCREASING THE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE AREAS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATUERS WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THIS
WEEK. MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGE
SLIDES EAST AND A MID LVL TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ECMWF
INDICATES A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE GFS WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE 6-7 DAY
RANGE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. AND THUS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME
TRENDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.MARINE...WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR TUE ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS FOR STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS.
WINDS WL EASE UP LATE IN THE DAY BUT REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE
CAUTION RANGE OVERNIGHT TUE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAA AND RESULTING STEEPER
LAPSE RATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  53  84  59  /  30  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          57  77  48  81  53  /  30  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  81  56  84  56  /  20  10   0   0   0
ALICE             62  79  51  86  55  /  20  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          66  78  57  80  62  /  30  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           58  78  47  83  53  /  20  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  80  52  84  56  /  30  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  78  60  79  65  /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

MB/80...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
539 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-221045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
539 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH MODERATE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PZ/GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
231 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

TXZ244>246-212000-
ARANSAS-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
231 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND SAN
PATRICIO COUNTIES...

AT 226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SINTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

TXZ241-243-244-212015-
JIM WELLS-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
246 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING JIM WELLS...NUECES AND SAN
PATRICIO COUNTIES...

AT 245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUNTZER...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF MATHIS...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

TB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NW TAFT               28.00N 97.41W
10/21/2013                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PORTLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTY
            OFFICIALS REPORT A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER AN OPEN FIELD SOUTH
            OF HIGHWAY 181 AND EAST OF 2965.

&&

JMETZ