Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM PATCHY MIST AND ISOLD/SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OCCUR ALSO DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDESTORMS ANTICIPATED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE BELATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD AN
AREA OF HIGHER CAPE AND NO CIN...WITH STILL GOOD SURFACE FORCING
OCCURRING. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE...COLD CLOUD TOPS STILL NOT
WARMING AND THUS FEEL HAVE TO INCLUDE TEMPOS IN KCRP AND KALI FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STORMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS THEY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. THUS...HAVE TEMPOS IN FOR THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME THROUGH 06Z (SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS). AFTER
THAT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLRD BY 09Z DUE TO
EASTERLY WINDS...MVFR/PSBL IFR CIGS WITH IFR BR AT KVCT (SAME
REASON)...AND KEEP THINGS VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AT KCRP AND
KALI. WINDS WEAKEN AND GENERALLY WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT...THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS LOW OUT WEST WEAKENS. FOR
NOW...JUST GOING WITH VCSH MONDAY AT KCRP AND KVCT DURING THE
DAYTIME AS THINK RAINFALL WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE MCS FROM THIS
MORNING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE FROM TS
OCTAVE OVER THE PACIFIC TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALSO...850MB WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. MODEL PW PROGS OF GREATER THAN 2
INCHES HAVE VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE 12Z CRP PW WAS 2.24 INCHES.
THIS HAS RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...NOW EXTENDING INTO
LASALLE COUNTY. FOCUS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THESE REGIONS
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS. WILL
FOREGO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
BETTER FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. KEPT SOME LOW LEVEL POPS THOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...VORT LOBE WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS WELL...HOWEVER PWATS OF NEAR 1.7 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN QUIET POPS FOR
NOW AS SOME WARMING OCCURS IN THE MIDLEVELS. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A SLOW SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS SETTLED
BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND PUSHING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE EVENING.
MOISTURE OF NEAR 1.9 INCHES REMAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT H85 SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH A BRIEF RETREAT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE SECOND WAVE
OF ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT BACK
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA...ENDING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON DRYING OUT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS REMAINING
WETTER AND THE EURO DRIER. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY WITH THE EURO
THESE PAST FEW DAYS...DECIDED UPON THE DRIER SOLUTION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...TRENDING ON THE COOLER SIDE DUE THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  74  91  74  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  72  88  70  81  /  20  10  10  10  50
LAREDO            94  74  94  72  88  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             91  72  92  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          85  77  88  75  81  /  10  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           90  72  90  70  78  /  20  10  20  30  40
KINGSVILLE        91  73  91  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       87  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
512 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
512 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND COASTAL BEND AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM COTULLA TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA
AND AREAS NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN HALF OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TE/TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     FLOOD            10 N FREER              28.03N 98.62W
10/13/2013                   DUVAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE DUVAL COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODING
            ON A BRIDGE ALONG HIGHWAY 16 ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF FREER

&&

GWILK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     FLOOD            COTULLA                 28.44N 99.24W
10/13/2013                   LA SALLE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES OCCURRING IN LA SALLE

            COUNTY...WITH WATER AS HIGH AS 4 FEET DEEP IN SOME AREAS.

&&

GWILK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1136 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ENCINAL                 28.04N 99.35W
10/13/2013                   LA SALLE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MILE MARKER 37 SOUTHBOUND ON INTERSTATE 35 CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING AND MULTI-CAR ACCIDENTS. REPORTED BY DEPARTMENT
            OF PUBLIC SAFETY.

&&

GWILK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1156 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLOOD            LAREDO                  27.53N 99.49W
10/13/2013                   WEBB               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOODING REPORTED IN SOME INTERSECTIONS IN
            LAREDO...INCLUDING BARTLETTE AVENUE...MCPHERSON
            AVENUE...AND JACKAMAN ROAD.

1140 PM     FLOOD            LAREDO                  27.53N 99.49W
10/13/2013                   WEBB               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOODING REPORTED IN SOME ROADS IN THE CITY OF
            LAREDO...INCLUDING JACAMAN ROAD...BARTLETTE AVENUE...AND
            MCPHERSON AVENUE.

&&

GWILK