Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
205 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED FOR WATCH. THE MAIN THREAT IS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO...HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY BE SEVERE
OR TORNADIC.

PREVIOUS...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE WATCH. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING IN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE...IT TOO COULD BECOME
SEVERE. THIS IS A PDS WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS
BACKS THIS UP WITH DRY AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPES
OVER 1000K/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST FORWARD PROPAGATION
ADDING TO WIND POTENTIAL. ROTATING SUPERCELLS ALSO SUPPORTED SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS...THE WAITING GAME BEGINS. SO FAR ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE WELL CAPPED AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND IS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND. WE NEVER CLEARED OUT OR HAD ANY BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST AS EXPECTED AND THIS IS ALSO LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE REGION.

COORDINATED WITH COFORECASTER...IT APPEARS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
HAS SET UP BACK OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE LOCATION THE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THIS AREA AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVERNIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SURGE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING.

THE SURGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AND COULD POSSIBLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POTENTIAL FLOODING
THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND AREAS COULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL
PONDING OF WATER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RAPID RISES OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH TO THE LAKE SHORE AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND UPPER
60S IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS EAST FORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE COAST. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL.  HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FORCING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA. A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST BY
SATURDAY. LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE THEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER WAVE THAT
MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
LINE...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH TIME. SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR RAIN FOLLOWS. IFR IN TS. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT QUESTION
WILL BE IF WE GET ANY IFR AROUND DAWN. CONDITIONS NOT TOO LOW
UPSTREAM...SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE...WILL MONITOR. WINDS FAIRLY VARIABLE TONIGHT. INITIALLY
WEST FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN VARIABLE. FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTH FLOW...GUSTS TO 25KTS OR SO. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
VARYING FROM A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. LATER TONIGHT...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WARRANTING A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET...WHICH WILL AFFECT WAVE HEIGHTS. FOR NOW IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT
THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP SPEED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD REACH 2.0"
WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND COULD DROP A QUICK INCH TO AN AREA. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS IS HIGH SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF A QUICK 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES THIS HIGH COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL BETWEEN 10 PM
TONIGHT AND 8 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-
     031>033-038-089.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-
     017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN/YEAGER
HYDROLOGY...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1125 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW BUTLER            40.56N 82.43W
06/12/2013                   RICHLAND           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 INCHES OF WATER ON GILMORE ROAD

&&

LW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TORNADO          CUSTAR                  41.28N 83.84W
06/13/2013                   WOOD               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED ALONG ROUTE 281.

&&

YEAGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             5 SW BELLVILLE          40.57N 82.58W
06/12/2013  E0.88 INCH       RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KIELTYKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FREMONT                 41.35N 83.11W
06/12/2013                   SANDUSKY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30 FOOT LONG BRANCH DOWN.

&&

LW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     RISINGSUN               41.27N 83.43W
06/13/2013  M73.00 MPH       WOOD               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

YEAGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
328 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH AMHERST           41.35N 82.24W
06/13/2013                   LORAIN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6-8 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN.

0121 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HURON                   41.40N 82.56W
06/13/2013                   ERIE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING SOME ROADS.

0116 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MILAN                   41.29N 82.60W
06/13/2013                   ERIE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING ROADS

0107 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CASTALIA                41.40N 82.81W
06/13/2013                   ERIE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES AND TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

1246 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 N TIFFIN              41.25N 83.18W
06/13/2013                   SENECA             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A FARM. TREES DOWN AND BARN DOWN.

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERVILLE              41.50N 83.73W
06/13/2013                   LUCAS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TIFFIN                  41.12N 83.18W
06/13/2013                   SENECA             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF COUNTY.

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BOWLING GREEN           41.38N 83.65W
06/13/2013                   WOOD               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EULER ROAD, TREE THROUGH ROOF

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BOWLING GREEN           41.38N 83.65W
06/13/2013                   WOOD               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES ALL
            ACROSS WOOD COUNTY

&&

LW