Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362 VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

GULF MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA.  CAPES HOVERING AROUND 3000
J/KG AND LI S UP TO MINUS 6 EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NO PARTICULAR BOUNDARY THAT I
CAN LATCH ONTO TO TIME CONVECTION THIS EVENING.   THEN AFTER A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION TOWARD SUNSET EXPECT A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION
FROM THE TSRA NOW DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI.
IT WILL BE CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SOME LINGERING TSRA ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE PRECISE TIMING AS NO LONGER HAVE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING
IN MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.  BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH PERIOD AS SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO AND THEN GETTING STUCK IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
INTO AN ELONGATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TO THE GULF COAST WITH ITS AXIS
WEST OF THE AREA.  ALL THE WHILE...BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH 60-80% CLOUD COVER ON
AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CUMULUS LINE NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF KYNG TO KCAK. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN OHIO. CONCERNED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
BOTH LOCATIONS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
US ALSO GENERALLY BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXPECTING A BREAK THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT NAM SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA SO BELIEVE MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING FROM OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS MAY TRY TO RAMP UP AGAIN AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME...ESPECIALLY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG WITH SEVERE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-260830-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AND COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.