Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Cleveland, OH

556 
WWUS51 KCLE 062342
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

OHC075-151-169-070000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-131007T0000Z/
HOLMES OH-STARK OH-WAYNE OH-
742 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN STARK AND NORTHEASTERN HOLMES
COUNTIES...

AT 742 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR MOUNT EATON...OR 10 MILES EAST OF HOLMESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
DALTON...BREWSTER...NAVARRE...MASSILLON AND PERRY HEIGHTS.

LAT...LON 4057 8190 4083 8190 4083 8145 4065 8147
      4063 8166 4056 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 213DEG 48KT 4069 8173

$$

KING

779 
WWUS51 KCLE 070000
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

OHC075-151-169-070011-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-131007T0000Z/
HOLMES OH-STARK OH-WAYNE OH-
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN STARK AND NORTHEASTERN HOLMES COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 800 PM
EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4057 8190 4083 8190 4083 8145 4065 8147
      4063 8166 4056 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 213DEG 48KT 4068 8174

$$

KING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
619 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVER OHIO EARLY TUESDAY THEN REACHING MAINE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CHANGES MADE MOSTLY DUE TO TIMING OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DID END THE THUNDER WEST OF THE
FRONT HOWEVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO BROUGHT BACK
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE LOW GOES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
FLASH FLOOD WILL BE EVALUATED NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HEAVY RAINS ARE UNLIKELY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH A VERY WET GROUND AND THE
FRONT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WE WILL
CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH. ALTHOUGH WE FULLY EXPECT IT TO BE
DROPPED ON THE EVENING SHIFT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA BUT STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO POP
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT THUNDER TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM THAT PRODUCES A STRONG WIND GUST FROM KNOX
COUNTY EASTWARD INTO MAHONING COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECREASED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WEST MAY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST ON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT LINGER ACROSS
NE OH INTO NW PA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
OVER ON TUESDAY WITH 5H HEIGHTS RISING INTO WEDNESDAY.

SO WITH THAT SAID WE WILL SEE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID MORNING THEN
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL. MONDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH
WIND AND CLOUD COVER TO AVOID FROST. HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT MAY
CHILL ENOUGH NEAR THE OH/PA LINE AND INLAND NW PA TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FROST. HIGHS WILL WARM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THAT ARE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THU THRU SAT WHILE A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
AS THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS FROM ENE TO SE. BY SUN THERE ARE TWO
SYSTEMS THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. ONE IS A SYSTEM THAT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST THEN RETROGRADES NW TOWARD THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA WHILE THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FEEL BEST MOVE FOR NOW IS TO STAY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND AT LEAST CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPS SUN
MAY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO IF THE CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF TOL AND FDY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THRU 09Z. A BAND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL PROGRESS EAST
WITH THE FRONT PRODUCING MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE EAST OF THIS BAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF
LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS JUST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN GUIDANCE
INDICATES CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. SOME OF THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
MAY EVEN SEE THE CIGS SCATTER OUT FOR A WHILE.

WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH IMPROVING LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS ON MON. EXPECT MVFR OR
LOW VFR CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN FOR MAINLY BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SCT SHRA OCCUR NEAR LERI

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL IMPROVE TUE THEN EXPECT VFR LATER TUE THRU
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER SHOWING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LAKE TONIGHT AND SHIFTING THE SOUTH FLOW TO WSW WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT THEN TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
IN THE WELL OFFSHORE AREAS ON MON. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE LAKE BY MIDDAY
TUE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED SO A LIGHT
AND CHANGEABLE FLOW WILL TURN MOSTLY EAST FOR WED THRU FRI WHILE
MAINLY STAYING 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-
     018-027.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ009>014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-071415-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-
MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1004 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. IF THEY DO BECOME STRONG THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-071415-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-HANCOCK-SENECA-WYANDOT-
1004 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. IF THEY DO BECOME STRONG THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.