Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Cleveland, OH

675 
WWUS51 KCLE 310558
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

OHC123-143-310607-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-130831T0630Z/
OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SANDUSKY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

THE STRONGEST STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE 
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4162 8340 4162 8310 4152 8293 4155 8287
      4160 8284 4155 8278 4154 8270 4148 8274
      4150 8280 4148 8282 4147 8296 4146 8297
      4143 8294 4145 8284 4134 8284 4130 8330
      4150 8334 4150 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 278DEG 24KT 4148 8286

$$

KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY USHERING COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO AND
NW PA. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO MICHIGAN. THE CURRENT INCREASE
IN THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY CAUSED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB.
SO WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NW OHIO. STILL DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE MORE
THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NWRN PA. RADAR
HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SMALL RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING ERIE COUNTY FAR
NORTHEAST AND THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ON THE LINE WITH ONE DEVELOPING CLUSTER IN SERN WI WITH A BROKEN
LINE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. HRRR BRINGS THE WI CLUSTER INTO NRN
INDIANA BY 03Z WHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WEAKENS AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ISOLATED IN SERN LOWER MI AND ONTARIO JUST
NORTH OF THE LAKE. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO NWRN OHIO AND THE
LAKE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TIER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWED SREF
TIMING BUT GUIDANCE POPS WERE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFS MOS SO DID
SCALE BACK TOWARD THE GFS MOS CHANCE POPS. TEMPS AGAIN MILD WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE LIKELY
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THAT
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT WEST
OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT WAFFLES BACK TOWARD OR INTO
THE AREA. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST AFTER
HAVING DRIED IT OUT FOR THE EVENING. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MODELS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND WITH FORECAST CAPES FROM 2-3000J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON
TSTMS COULD GET STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WESTERN COUNTIES TO DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
IN THE EAST GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT COOLER AIR WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS WILL FEEL
NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES. EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN NE OH/NW PA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW
70S IN OHIO...STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY.

12Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE NEXT FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS FASTER AND
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH THE 12Z RUN
AND TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAKER FRONT. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY THE GFS SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS JUST ANOTHER
MODEST DROP IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE
MADE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WHEN HZ/BR
WILL START TO DEVELOP WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE VCSH
MENTION FOR ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT INCLUDED VCTS AT TOL AND ERI.
AS FAR AS WE CAN SEE NOW...THEY HAVE THE BEST TS CHANCES. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS STILL IN QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT THAT WILL BE
WEAKENING AND SLOWING AS IT APPROACHES. A SCT- BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS/VISIBILITY. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
LAKE ERIE IN THE MORNING AND HENCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
FRONT MAY LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT YNG AND CAK FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR MFD OR MAYBE FDY TO HAVE TS SATURDAY TOO...BUT
CHANCES LOW. BY 00Z SUN ALL WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY INLAND LOCATIONS EACH MORNING IN PATCHY
FOG. NON VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SOME DEGREE OF A LAKE BREEZE ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE IS IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MORE THAN 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER CENTRAL
OHIO.

WIND WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
BACK NORTH OVER THE LAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-310900-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-310900-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             16 E TOLEDO             41.66N 83.27W
08/31/2013  E0.75 INCH       LUCAS              OH   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
114 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

OHZ003-006>008-310600-
LUCAS-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-WOOD-
114 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LUCAS...NORTHEASTERN WOOD...NORTHERN
SANDUSKY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 109 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM NEAR TOLEDO TO PORT CLINTON
INCLUDING INLAND LOCATIONS OF OTTAWA COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A PENNY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TOW INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING NAD POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.