Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Cleveland, OH

311 
WWUS51 KCLE 102023
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
423 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

OHC033-101-175-102100-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130410T2100Z/
WYANDOT OH-CRAWFORD OH-MARION OH-
423 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MARION AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
9 MILES SOUTH OF UPPER SANDUSKY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
NEVADA...BUCYRUS...NORTH ROBINSON...GALION...CRESTLINE AND TIRO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 8342 4087 8312 4089 8311 4099 8273
      4071 8273 4071 8285 4054 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 245DEG 36KT 4073 8317

$$

WILLARD

770 
WWUS51 KCLE 102043
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
443 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

OHC033-101-175-102053-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130410T2100Z/
WYANDOT OH-CRAWFORD OH-MARION OH-
443 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MARION AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOT COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST OHIO IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4074 8342 4087 8312 4089 8311 4099 8273
      4071 8273 4071 8285 4054 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 245DEG 36KT 4081 8293

$$

WILLARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CAUSING DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROWING IN THE WHITE TOWEL ON WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT. SEVERAL FORCES ARE WORKING ON THIS LOCATION OF
THE BOUNDARY BY FORCING IT NORTH AND THEN SOUTH. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA HAS BEEN NUDGING NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TODAY. TEMPERATURE
SWINGS FROM THE 40S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE 60S SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN COMMON. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE
RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND AREAS SUCH AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
LUCAS COUNTY NEAR THE LAKE HAVE BEEN LUCKY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR
HIGHS.

DUE TO THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AS THE SUN
SETS...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT CONVECTION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE
FORECAST AREA TRIES TO DRY SLOT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KEEP IN MIND...THAT MOST OF THE NIGHT COULD ESCAPE DRY AFTER SUNSET
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE LAKE AS TO EXACTLY HOW
COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH AND MIDDLE TO LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.  BASICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PIVOTS A TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE REGION.
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL AID IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FORCING A COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR CONTINUES TO WAFFLE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL BE PLAGUED ONCE AGAIN BY MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. TOUGH CALL ON WHAT TO
GO WITH FOR HIGHS. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY.

CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A QUICK
SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND THIS COULD BE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NEEDED
TO FIRE OFF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE
REGION.

ONCE THE FRONT AND LOW PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS WRAP
AROUND AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ITS POSSIBLE FOR US TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WE CAN ANTICIPATE SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. IF YOU
HAPPEN TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MUCH
COOLER IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN A COUNTY OR TWO OF
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS NORTH OF
THE FRONT. LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
OHIO...LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THUNDER COULD OCCUR
AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST ROUTES LATE THURSDAY AND USHER IN A COOL AIR MASS.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING THE NE FLOW TO INCREASE TONIGHT THRU NOON ON THU. FOR NOW...
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WILL ONLY INCREASE THE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
INSTEAD OF 35 KNOT GALES.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE OVER LAKE ERIE THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO EXPECT
CHANGEABLE WINDS DURING THIS TIME THEN THE FLOW SHOULD TURN OUT OF
THE WSW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 AND MAYBE 15 TO 25 KNOTS FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO
SAT NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY WILL LESSEN
THE FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUN A SE THEN S FLOW WILL
SET UP AND INCREASE SOME SUN NIGHT. BY MON THE MODELS DIFFER A FAIR
AMOUNT ON THE POSITION OF A FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE SO WIND DIRECTION
IN QUESTION. WILL GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS AND LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN A S TO SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARE
RUNNING IN THE MID 60S. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH CAN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS
EXPECTED TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT DON'T SEE
ENOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TO JUSTIFY A WATCH AS MOST AREAS HAVE
BEEN DRY. THE RAIN FALLING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL PRECONDITION THE
GROUND FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN COMING IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AT WHICH TIME A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE AS MUCH AS 2 MORE
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...ADAMS
HYDROLOGY...JAMISON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

OHZ003-006>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-112000-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-MAHONING-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
347 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO THROUGH CLEVELAND TO SOUTHERN CRAWFORD
COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

THERE COULD BE PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ017>019-027>032-036>038-047-112000-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
347 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO THROUGH CLEVELAND TO SOUTHERN CRAWFORD
COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

THERE COULD BE PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-112000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
347 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LOMBARDY