Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CAUSING DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN OHIO.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HANCOCK/SENECA TO KNOX/HOLMES
COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
CONVECTION OCCURRING UPSTREAM IN INDIANA FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS IF
THEY MOVE OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS.

OTHERWISE EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOCUSED
TOWARDS NW OHIO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WOULD THINK
THIS WOULD ALSO ACT TO DISRUPT THE TRAINING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.  BASICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PIVOTS A TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE REGION.
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL AID IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FORCING A COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR CONTINUES TO WAFFLE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL BE PLAGUED ONCE AGAIN BY MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. TOUGH CALL ON WHAT TO
GO WITH FOR HIGHS. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY.

CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A QUICK
SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND THIS COULD BE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NEEDED
TO FIRE OFF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE
REGION.

ONCE THE FRONT AND LOW PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS WRAP
AROUND AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ITS POSSIBLE FOR US TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WE CAN ANTICIPATE SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. IF YOU
HAPPEN TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MUCH
COOLER IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
LEAVING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OHIO. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AT ALL LOCATIONS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN IFR
OVERNIGHT WHILE MFD/CAK/YNG ARE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND MAY FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO VFR...TRANSITIONING TO MORE
VFR TOWARDS MORNING.

EXPECTING SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SOME BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS NW OHIO ON
THURSDAY MORNING. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY AND TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE REVISED.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CAUSING THE NE FLOW TO INCREASE TONIGHT THRU NOON ON THU. FOR NOW...
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WILL ONLY INCREASE THE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
INSTEAD OF 35 KNOT GALES.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE OVER LAKE ERIE THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO EXPECT
CHANGEABLE WINDS DURING THIS TIME THEN THE FLOW SHOULD TURN OUT OF
THE WSW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 AND MAYBE 15 TO 25 KNOTS FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO
SAT NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY WILL LESSEN
THE FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUN A SE THEN S FLOW WILL
SET UP AND INCREASE SOME SUN NIGHT. BY MON THE MODELS DIFFER A FAIR
AMOUNT ON THE POSITION OF A FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE SO WIND DIRECTION
IN QUESTION. WILL GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS AND LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN A S TO SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARE
RUNNING IN THE MID 60S. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH CAN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS
EXPECTED TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT DON'T SEE
ENOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TO JUSTIFY A WATCH AS MOST AREAS HAVE
BEEN DRY. THE RAIN FALLING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL PRECONDITION THE
GROUND FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN COMING IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AT WHICH TIME A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE AS MUCH AS 2 MORE
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

OHZ003-006>009-011>014-021>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-121100-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-MAHONING-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
414 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODERATE RAINFALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TODAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ010-017>020-027>032-036>038-047-121100-
LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-
WAYNE-STARK-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
414 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-121100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
414 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1045 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UPPER SANDUSKY          40.83N 83.28W
04/10/2013                   WYANDOT            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTED 4 SEMI TRUCKS BLOWN OVER ALONG WITH
            NUMEROUS POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.

0348 PM     HAIL             MARBLEHEAD              41.53N 82.72W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW WASHINGTON          40.96N 82.85W
04/10/2013                   CRAWFORD           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL UNINHABITED BUILDINGS DAMAGED AND POWER POLES
            DOWN

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBY                  40.88N 82.66W
04/10/2013                   RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BUILDING HAD A PORTION OF ROOF BLOWN OFF BY THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBY                  40.88N 82.66W
04/10/2013                   RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF DAMAGED ON BUILDING.

0425 PM     HAIL             MARION                  40.58N 83.13W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MARION             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHLAND                 40.87N 82.32W
04/10/2013                   ASHLAND            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS SMALL LIMBS DOWN IN CITY OF ASHLAND.

0500 PM     HAIL             4 N NASHVILLE           40.65N 82.11W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       HOLMES             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARKMAN                 41.37N 81.06W
04/10/2013  E60.00 MPH       GEAUGA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AKRON                   41.08N 81.52W
04/10/2013                   SUMMIT             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDOW BLOWN OUT ON BUILDING. ROOF DAMAGED ON SHED.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SHELBY              40.88N 82.70W
04/10/2013                   RICHLAND           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN DAMAGED AND UTILITY POLES DOWN.

0517 PM     TSTM WND GST     RAVENNA                 41.16N 81.24W
04/10/2013  M64.00 MPH       PORTAGE            OH   AWOS

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH CANTON            40.87N 81.40W
04/10/2013                   STARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A ROOF.

0529 PM     HAIL             MORRAL                  40.55N 82.83W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MORROW             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH CANTON            40.89N 81.42W
04/10/2013                   STARK              OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TELEPHONE POLE DOWN ON SYNDER ST.

0536 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE NILES              41.16N 80.71W
04/10/2013                   TRUMBULL           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UTILITY POLE DOWN. 3 INCH LIMBS DOWN. POWER OUTAGE
            REPORTED.

0548 PM     HAIL             CANTON                  40.81N 81.37W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       STARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM     HAIL             CARDINGTON              40.50N 82.90W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MORROW             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 PM     FLOOD            HOLMESVILLE             40.63N 81.92W
04/10/2013                   HOLMES             OH   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL ROADS IN NORTH AND NORTHEAST HOLMES COUNTY WERE
            WASHED OUT DURING THE EVENING

&&

MULLEN