Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLRG LINE IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS E. FAR WRN AREAS SHOULD BREAK
OUT INTO THE FULL SUN SOON WITH FILETERED SUNSHINE FINALLY
OCCURRING FARTHER E ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST WERE MADE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE INLAND...BUT COULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTER. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
COOL NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MID
40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN COULD
OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. COULD NOT RULE OUT WINDS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MIXING OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS DOWN OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIPPING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AND IT COULD EVEN STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA. FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES LOW AND MAINLY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TOMORROW. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING.
GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 23 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
COULD POSSIBLY LAST INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS PER GOING BUOY AND WW4 OUTPUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
DOWN INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHILE VEERING N TO NE.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT STALLING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH IN THE AREA.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT
AND SEAS WILL BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND FAVORABLE
FETCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY POOR MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. GALE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AND THUS HAVE RAISED A GALE WATCH
FOR ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATER MONDAY AND ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING SEAS AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND
POSSIBLY BEACH EROSION AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING. THUS...A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

ST/ECT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STILSON                 32.33N  81.55W
04/19/2013                   BULLOCH            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN STILSON COMMUNITY. TIME BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300196

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1036 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ELLABELL           32.13N  81.50W
04/19/2013                   BRYAN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN JUST NORTHWEST OF ELLABELL.
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300197

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE ROCKY FORD        32.69N  81.82W
04/19/2013                   SCREVEN            GA   POST OFFICE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN REPORTED BETWEEN 1800 AND 2200 BLOCK
            OF OLD ROCKY FORD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300198

TIMTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1054 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE MENDES             32.01N  81.96W
04/19/2013                   TATTNALL           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HARMONY CHURCH ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300199

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1118 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N MILLETT             33.12N  81.54W
04/19/2013                   ALLENDALE          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HOLLY ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300200

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1119 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE ROCKY FORD        32.69N  81.82W
04/19/2013                   SCREVEN            GA   POST OFFICE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN REPORTED BETWEEN 1800 AND 2200 BLOCK
            OF OLD ROCKY FORD ROAD.

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BURTONS FERRY LAND 32.97N  81.47W
04/19/2013                   ALLENDALE          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON REVOLUTIONARY TRAIL.

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE OLIVER            32.51N  81.51W
04/19/2013                   EFFINGHAM          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 17 NORTH.

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STILSON                 32.33N  81.55W
04/19/2013                   BULLOCH            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN STILSON COMMUNITY. TIME BASED ON
            RADAR.

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE MENDES             32.01N  81.96W
04/19/2013                   TATTNALL           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HARMONY CHURCH ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ELLABELL           32.13N  81.50W
04/19/2013                   BRYAN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN JUST NORTHWEST OF ELLABELL.
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW GARNETT           32.61N  81.27W
04/19/2013                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY OLD ORANGEBURG ROAD AT AUGUSTA
            STAGECOACH ROAD.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROBERTVILLE             32.59N  81.20W
04/19/2013                   JASPER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT ROBERTVILLE ROAD AND COTTON HILL
            ROAD.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW LAKE WARREN STATE 32.86N  81.19W
04/19/2013                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY THOMAS HAMILTON ROAD.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINELAND                32.60N  81.16W
04/19/2013                   JASPER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT CYPRESS BRANCH ROAD AND GILLISON
            BRANCH ROAD.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E CROCKETVILLE        32.91N  81.06W
04/19/2013                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT ALTMAN ROAD.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW ISLANDTON         32.89N  81.00W
04/19/2013                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY OLD SALKEHATCHIE HIGHWAY 1 MILE OFF OF
            HIGHWAY 63.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROCKETVILLE            32.92N  81.08W
04/19/2013                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY HIGHWAY 601 NEAR SANDY RUN ROAD.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N MILLETT             33.12N  81.54W
04/19/2013                   ALLENDALE          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HOLLY ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E GRAYS               32.67N  80.99W
04/19/2013                   JASPER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT MILL POND ROAD.

0539 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W WALTERBORO          32.90N  80.71W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY INTERSTATE 95 AT MILE MARKER 42 NB.

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YEMASSEE                32.69N  80.85W
04/19/2013                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT SALKEHATCHIE ROAD AND CASTLE HALL
            ROAD.

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE ISLANDTON          32.84N  80.85W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY ON LOW COUNTRY HIGHWAY AND PARADISE
            ROAD.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W HENDERSONVILLE      32.78N  80.79W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN INTERSTATE 95 AT COMBAHEE ROAD.

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW WALTERBORO         32.92N  80.69W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT RAILROAD STREET AND KIMBRELL STREET.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW WALTERBORO        32.85N  80.69W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HENDERSONVILLE
            HIGHWAY AND DANTZLER LAND.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW ROUND O           32.96N  80.60W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT WELCH CREEK ROAD AND SIDNEYS ROAD.

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW WALTERBORO        32.92N  80.74W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DOCTORS CREEK ROAD
            AND STATE ROAD S-15-64.

0601 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOWCOUNTRY REGIONAL AIR 32.92N  80.64W
04/19/2013  M49 MPH          COLLETON           SC   AWOS

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ISLANDTON          32.94N  80.90W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WALLING ROAD AND
            ADNAH CHURCH ROAD.

0603 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAVANNAH AIRPORT        32.13N  81.20W
04/19/2013  M47 MPH          CHATHAM            GA   ASOS

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE SUN CITY          32.27N  80.94W
04/19/2013                   BEAUFORT           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BLUFFTON PARKWAY
            AND HAMPTON LAKE DRIVE.

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE SUN CITY          32.27N  80.95W
04/19/2013                   BEAUFORT           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROADWAY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE
            170 AND DAVIS ROAD.

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW ASHTON            32.99N  81.02W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CAYCE ROAD AND
            MOSELLE ROAD.

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ROUND O             32.97N  80.55W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY AT COOLERS DAIRY ROAD.

0606 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW WALTERBORO        32.94N  80.73W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STOKES ROAD AND
            WEST BELLS HIGHWAY.

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRITCHARDVILLE          32.24N  80.97W
04/19/2013                   BEAUFORT           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREE BLOCKING ALL LANES ON OAKATIE HIGHWAY
            BETWEEN FORDING ISLAND ROAD AND MAY RIVER ROAD.

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW ROUND O            32.91N  80.59W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON FEATHERBED ROAD.

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW GIVHANS FERRY STA 33.05N  80.43W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT MEETING HOUSE ROAD AND AUGUSTA HIGHWAY.

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WILLIAMS          33.04N  80.86W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF LUMBER ROAD AND
            CUTLER ROAD.

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW COTTAGEVILLE       32.92N  80.50W
04/19/2013                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF JACKSONBORO ROAD
            AND BURR HILL ROAD.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SW CROSS              33.26N  80.25W
04/19/2013                   BERKELEY           SC   POST OFFICE

            TREE DOWN ON HELMET LANE.

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEAUFORT COUNTY AIRPORT 32.41N  80.63W
04/19/2013  M49 MPH          BEAUFORT           SC   AWOS

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW LADYS ISLAND      32.41N  80.65W
04/19/2013                   BEAUFORT           SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN IN PUBLIX SHOPPING CENTER PARKING LOT.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW CROSS             33.28N  80.17W
04/19/2013                   BERKELEY           SC   POST OFFICE

            TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 6 AND HIGHWAY 311.

0749 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S MOUNT PLEASANT      32.77N  79.87W
04/19/2013  E45 MPH          AMZ330             SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED WIND GUST BETWEEN 40 AND
            45 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300198 CHS1300161 CHS1300160 CHS1300196 CHS1300199
CHS1300197 CHS1300172 CHS1300167 CHS1300170 CHS1300169 CHS1300173
CHS1300171 CHS1300174 CHS1300200 CHS1300166 CHS1300163 CHS1300164
CHS1300189 CHS1300192 CHS1300190 CHS1300185 CHS1300188 CHS1300184
CHS1300162 CHS1300183 CHS1300165 CHS1300177 CHS1300180 CHS1300182
CHS1300187 CHS1300181 CHS1300175 CHS1300178 CHS1300191 CHS1300179
CHS1300176 CHS1300194 CHS1300168 CHS1300186 CHS1300195 CHS1300193

TIMTE