Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Charleston, SC

434 
WWUS52 KCHS 190330
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1130 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

SCC013-015-019-029-035-053-190340-
/O.CAN.KCHS.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130319T0345Z/
DORCHESTER SC-CHARLESTON SC-BERKELEY SC-JASPER SC-COLLETON SC-
BEAUFORT SC-
1130 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER...
CHARLESTON...BERKELEY...JASPER...COLLETON AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 1130 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED
THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SAFEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3272 8004 3255 8019 3247 8035 3243 8035
      3249 8036 3246 8040 3249 8043 3248 8047
      3241 8042 3231 8044 3226 8060 3222 8062
      3207 8087 3212 8108 3288 8051 3333 8052
      3326 8043 3327 8030 3330 8026 3345 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 265DEG 39KT 3326 7998 3258 8013
          3221 8031

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1044 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COUPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QLCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE COAST. EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 55
TO INCLUDE REMAINING SC COUNTIES AND ALL NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
MEANWHILE...SEVERE THREAT ENDS ABRUPTLY WITH PASSAGE OF SQUALL
LINE...GIVING WAY TO A TRAILING AREA OF ANVIL RAIN/OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM
WATCH FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING RAPID EXIT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
COLD ADVECTION LAGS SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM.
PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCALS...THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH WIND IN MOST PLACES TO KEEP FROM DECOUPLING. AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE THAT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCALS.

THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY AS A RESULT OF THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A COLD RAIN
TO MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES. GFS KEEPS RAIN OFF THE COAST AND IS NO
WHERE NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NAM. CANADIAN AND
ECMWF ARE EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE
QUICKLY MOVE ANY LIFT EAST OF THE AREA. TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT
OF NAM SOLUTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NAM MAINTAIN THIS TREND AND
OTHER MODELS TO JUMP ON BOARD BEFORE MAKING ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW MAINLY CARRIED HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LIKE FOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST...GENERALLY FOLLOWED
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT DETAILS THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE
STILL MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD REACH ONE OR TWO INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TRICKY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SC/GA...DO NOT GET OUT
OF THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR AT 00Z SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL GA.
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT TO THE
COAST...WITH TIMING OF ARRIVAL IN THE KSAV VICINITY AROUND 03Z.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE AT KSAV...SO HAVE NO
MENTION IN KCHS TAF AT THIS TIME. LOWER VSBYS/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT KSAV TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND POTENTIAL STRONG GUSTS WITH
THIS LINE. ONCE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QLCS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CROSS COASTAL WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT-2 AM. EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. THE SQUALL LINE COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE
PATTERN/ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

IN AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH COOL SHELF WATERS WILL DETER
A SIGNIFICANT MIXING ENVIRONMENT. WE THINK VERY MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN ADVISORY OVER AMZ374 BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SW OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE TONIGHT AND UP TO 5 FT WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST ONE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD SEVERAL BOUTS OF INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS
BUT OVERALL THE CHANCES OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LOW AT THIS
TIME...AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR TUE AND/OR WED AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...MTE
AVIATION...SPR/ECT
MARINE...SPR/MTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ088-100-101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-
047>052-200245-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-SCREVEN-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-
TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-
COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ374-200245-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-099-200245-
JENKINS-CANDLER-
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1015 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     HAIL             SCOTIA                  32.68N  81.24W
03/18/2013  M1.00 INCH       HAMPTON            SC   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300087

TIMTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1018 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE HUNTERS           32.69N  81.54W
03/18/2013                   SCREVEN            GA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON 800 BLOCK OF POOR ROBIN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300088

TIMTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     HAIL             3 ESE LENA              32.74N  81.17W
03/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAMPTON            SC   PUBLIC

            HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTERS FALLING NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF TURNER EXPRESSWAY AND HW-3.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300089

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GEORGIA SOUTHERN    32.42N  81.84W
03/18/2013                   BULLOCH            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT COUNTRY CLUB ROAD NEAR IRON GATE
            SUBDIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300090

TIMTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1031 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HAIL             3 SSW CLYO              32.44N  81.28W
03/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300091

TIMTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW CLYO              32.44N  81.28W
03/18/2013  E70 MPH          EFFINGHAM          GA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300092

TIMTE