Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING HAS PUSHED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S. THIS HAS MADE THE
ATMOSPHERE QUITE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE LATE AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 4500 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -6 OR -7C. CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...PEE DEE AND GRAND STRAND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF OUTFLOW/COLD POOLING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THE SEA BREEZE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATER TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CONTINUING ACROSS INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...THROUGH LATE EVENING. THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
LEAVING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE CLEARING SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SETS UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA...ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING AND GREATEST
INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PEAK LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOP NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD AT KCHS AND KSAV. INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT BOTH TERMINALS
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES DO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KCHS FOR
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP THERE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.
REGARDLESS...CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION INLAND BY EARLY EVENING AS
THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. OVERNIGHT...MODELS AGAIN HINT AT
SOME LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEEK OUTSIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OFFSHORE WITH INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BUILD BUT
SHOULD STAY 5 FT OR LESS GIVEN THE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
WEEKEND.

WATERSPOUTS...MAY SEE AN ENHANCED RISK THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELDS...MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLE LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE LINE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE UPCOMING FULL MOON AND LUNAR
PERIGEE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
KEEP DEPARTURES MINIMAL AND THUS THE THREAT FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JHP/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
450 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-SCZ040-042>045-047-052-182100-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
450 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

SCZ048>051-182100-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
450 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TIDE LEVELS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE UPCOMING FULL MOON AND LUNAR
PERIGEE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
KEEP DEPARTURES MINIMAL AND THUS THE THREAT FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

GAZ116-118-137-138-140-182100-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
450 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

GAZ117-119-139-141-182100-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
450 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TIDE LEVELS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE UPCOMING FULL MOON AND LUNAR
PERIGEE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
KEEP DEPARTURES MINIMAL AND THUS THE THREAT FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-182100-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
450 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

SCZ043-044-050-172100-
CHARLESTON-DORCHESTER-INLAND COLLETON-
409 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER...
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR DELEMAR CROSSROADS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
MIDDLETON PLACE...MAGNOLIA GARDENS...CAPWELLS CROSSROADS...COOKE
CROSSROADS...DELEMAR CROSSROADS...WESTOE...SLANDS BRIDGE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN ENCLOSED BUILDING.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 8051 3305 8036 3288 8008 3275 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 117DEG 12KT 3284 8020

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
458 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

SCZ045-172130-
INLAND BERKELEY-
458 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUDGE TOWN TO
BONNEAU TO CORDESVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BONNEAU...OLD CORDESVILLE...STONY LANDING...SIMPSON CROSSING...OLD
SANTEE CANAL STATE PARK...PIMLICO...NORTHERN LAKE MOULTRIE...SOUTHERN
LAKE MOULTRIE...WAPPOOLA...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 7945 3313 7964 3293 7981 3296 7986
      3307 7985 3307 7997 3300 8000 3291 7998
      3290 8001 3300 8006 3300 8012 3315 8032
      3318 8030 3326 8036 3330 8025 3345 8022
      3345 8015 3351 8013 3351 8000 3332 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 079DEG 12KT 3351 8003 3330 7996
          3311 7991

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
610 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N OLD SANTEE CANAL ST 33.22N  79.96W
07/17/2013                   BERKELEY           SC   911 CALL CENTER

            MINOR FLOODING AND A TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 52 AND HIGHWAY 17A NEAR MONCKS CORNER. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300686

BDC