Gale Warning 22, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA WITH WIND AND RAIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME PATCHY LOW OCEAN
ST MAKING NWRD PROGRESS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE...SO WE ADDED MORE CLD
CVR OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO THE MORN HRS. OTHERWISE...WE CONTD
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FOR ALL OF THE FA N OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BASED ON MDNGT SFC OBS. HRLY TEMPS SHOULD BECOME'
STEADY...AND EVEN RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY DAYBREAK ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WITH THE ADVANCE OF OCEAN ST AND PATCHY
FOG.

1100 PM UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS FOG PRODUCT INDICATES FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ORGNL DISC: A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE ERN MARITIMES SWWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SCTD
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR SWRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CWA AFTER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
OCCLUDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A
CLOUDY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE AT NIGHT AND RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 925 WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED,
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. A WINDSWEPT RAIN WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL THEN QUICKLY PUSH AWAY TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. DOWNEAST AREAS MAY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THE END OF THE AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY WHILE DOWNSLOPING WINDS BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

IT MIGHT GET INTERESTING NEXT WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HINTING AT WINTER WEATHER.  THE 12Z GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THICKNESSES SUGGEST A PRIMARILY
SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN
DOWNEAST.  THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION...HOWEVER IT IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
ALSO A COLDER SOLUTION WITH ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
11 PM UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
OVER THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AT MID-HIGH LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED. AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ALONG THE COAST...SCTD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY ATTM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR WINDS INCREASING TO
35 KT IN GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY 40 KT IN GUSTS ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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