Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
AUGUSTA AREA. EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING
AND APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE MID LEVELS. WITH CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE DRAGS
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER QUITE WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH CAE AREA NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COULD CAUSE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
CAUSE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE IS A
LITTLE DRIER WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN FROM 2.0 INCHES TODAY TO ABOUT
1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ON THE RISE. HIGHS UPPER 80S FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD AS EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SUMMER SOLSTICE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH IMPACTS AT AGS/DNL EXPECTED BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR CAE/CUB/OGB BEGINNING AT 19Z. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NEXT CONCERN IS POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AND FOG AFTER 19/06Z...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOR AGS/OGB
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL ERODE
QUICKLY WITH CONDITIONS FROM 19/13Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD EXPECTED VFR.

NOTE...AGS ASOS HAS BEEN RETURNED TO SERVICE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-190930-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. ALSO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCZ027-030-035>037-182000-
AIKEN-BARNWELL-CALHOUN-LEXINGTON-ORANGEBURG-
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON...AIKEN...
CALHOUN...ORANGEBURG AND BARNWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES WEST OF
WAGENER TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
GASTON...LEESVILLE...LEXINGTON...PINE RIDGE...RED BANK...SOUTH
CONGAREE...SPRINGDALE AND ST. MATTHEWS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR USE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.COLUMBIA.GOV TO RELAY
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS. &&

LAT...LON 3337 8126 3367 8180 3409 8132 3390 8102
      3385 8098 3383 8092 3381 8091 3381 8089
      3365 8064 3341 8118 3344 8122 3339 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 239DEG 35KT 3370 8164 3342 8119

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCZ022-027-028-031-037-182045-
CALHOUN-KERSHAW-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-SUMTER-
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF KERSHAW...
LEXINGTON...RICHLAND...CALHOUN AND SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GILBERT TO 9 MILES
EAST OF GASTON TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF EASTOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
OAKLAND...ARCADIA LAKES...CAYCE...COLUMBIA...DENTSVILLE...EASTOVER...
FOREST ACRES...GASTON...IRMO...LEXINGTON...OAK GROVE...PINE RIDGE...
RED BANK...SOUTH CONGAREE...SPRINGDALE...ST. ANDREWS...SUMTER...WEST
COLUMBIA...WOODFIELDS...FORT JACKSON AND FIVE POINTS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR USE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.COLUMBIA.GOV TO RELAY
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS. &&

LAT...LON 3362 8068 3380 8100 3382 8152 3422 8115
      3419 8062 3402 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 218DEG 23KT 3389 8134 3387 8093
          3375 8070