River Flood Advisory 14, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE MOIST AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT... HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT
SCATTERED COVERAGE TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT
THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM,,,THEN 20 PERCENT AFTERWARD. CLOUDINESS WILL
HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN CAUGHT IN
THE RIDGE. TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER
TROUGH. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER POP GUIDANCE. THE HIGH MOISTURE
WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
INDICATES VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE DURING MUCH
OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT APPEARS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD AND STALL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. MODEL MEANS SUPPORT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
LOWCOUNTRY. RADAR INDICATING WDLY SCTD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATE THIS EVENING. MAINLY
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 06Z-08Z TUESDAY WITH VCSH.
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE VCNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-200800-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
354 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG SMALL
STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND
IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
837 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLOOD            BARNWELL                33.24N 81.37W
08/19/2013                   BARNWELL           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STREET FLOODING AND SEVERAL
            HOMES WITH WATER IN THE BARNWELL AREA.

&&

SJN