Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
UPSTATE. EXPECT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
THREAT OF FLOODING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. INITIAL REPORTS FROM
THE TIP OF LANCASTER COUNTY INDICATE RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. WITH SEVERAL RIVERS AT OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS NEAR CAPACITY AND THE GROUND
SATURATED FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE THREAT OF
FLOODING IS A REAL CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS SUCH
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FROM 2PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES A CONTINUED
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN AND WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE TREND OF AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. THE GENERAL PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHER POPS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGHING BEGINNING TO SHIFT
WESTWARD BY SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA BECOMING
MORE DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A DECREASE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE STILL WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE UPSTATE AND TOWARD THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...ONE INCH PLUS PER HOUR...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED JUST
SOUTH OF CLT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO INCLUDE TEMPO FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR WITH
SUNRISE AND ONSET OF MIXING. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AS WELL AS SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-120745-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
343 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.