Tornado Warning 12, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

OVERVIEW...SPLIT JETS IN FRONT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT/DYNAMICS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A JUICY WARM SECTOR RESIDES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED
SUPER-CELLS AND ALSO MULTI-CELL STRUCTURED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG SHEAR AS STORMS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS.

LATER THIS EVENING...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT INVADES OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL KICK OFF MORE OF A RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
SCENARIO WITH LIGHTNING...AND WINDS SHIFTING STRONGLY TO THE NW.
THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER JET MAX
ROUNDING THE TROUGH INTO SW MONTANA WILL INDUCE SOME RAIN AND
THUNDER ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER OVER MOST SECTIONS FRIDAY. DRIER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE OVER SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP US WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD LOOKING
TO BE TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY UNDERCUT THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING RETURNED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST
OF A KMLS TO 4BQ LINE. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS AROUND 55KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/068 047/077 051/079 052/080 055/085 052/077 052/071
    63/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 044/063 041/077 042/079 045/081 046/084 049/075 048/068
    54/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 051/070 046/078 049/080 051/080 056/088 052/081 053/073
    72/T    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 055/072 050/077 052/079 053/078 055/084 057/082 055/075
    63/T    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 053/071 046/077 049/080 051/079 055/087 055/087 055/076
    51/B    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
BHK 055/070 047/074 049/075 050/075 054/080 058/079 053/074
    52/T    00/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    11/U    12/T
SHR 049/069 043/076 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/085 050/073
    41/B    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>32-34>36-38>42-56>58-63>68.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 29-31-34-36>38-42-57-58-64-65-67.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONE 99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
325 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-142130-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
325 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY
CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS ALONG WITH AREAS
BURNED BY 2012 WILDFIRES REMAIN UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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