Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
656 PM MDT SUN SEP 8 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES FOR ADITIONAL SEVERE STORM WATCH IN SE ZONES
THROUGH 1 AM. ALSO UPDATED POPS FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PROGGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT Q VECTOR
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. STORMS DEVELOPING OFF MOUNTAINS WILL
MOVE INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP WATER AVAILABLE.
THEREFORE...IN COORDINATION WITH SPC A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA UNTIL 9 PM. TO THE SOUTHEAST...SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FLOWING ACROSS THE BIG HORNS TAKING AIM AT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. CRAVEN/BROOKS SEVERE WEATHER
INDICES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN CARTER COUNTY...AND WILL HAVE
LIMITED TIME TO GET SOME SURFACE HEATING BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK OVER THE AREA. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
SEVERE STORM WATCH AS WELL.

DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS A MATTER OF FACT...WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND IT 6 AM MONDAY DUE TO CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS
AND A POSSIBLE MCS IN EASTERN MONTANA LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER MONDAY...BUT BE DECREASING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...AS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND INCLEMENT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DRY WEATHER. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FRI INTO SAT BEFORE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE FRI THROUGH SUN TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. CONDITIONS IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR...WITH LOCALIZED VLIFR
VISIBILITIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA E AND S OF KBIL MON MORNING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH MON MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WNW. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/078 054/083 056/083 058/083 060/084 057/084 058/084
    70/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 048/076 046/083 047/086 051/085 053/083 054/085 053/082
    31/B    00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    22/U
HDN 056/080 053/086 054/084 057/083 057/085 059/084 059/086
    62/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 059/079 056/084 056/084 057/084 059/083 058/083 058/086
    62/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 058/080 053/084 054/083 057/082 056/084 059/082 058/086
    73/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/U
BHK 059/077 054/080 054/080 054/078 054/079 055/077 056/082
    63/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T    21/U
SHR 054/076 048/081 050/084 053/082 054/083 053/082 051/083
    42/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63-66>68.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
      29>33-35>38-57-58.
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MDT MONDAY
      FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
      98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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