Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
249 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER IN THE SHORT-
TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ITS AXIS OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ARE ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA IN AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL AND CAPE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S...AND
PWATS UPWARDS OF THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK INVERTED V
SIGNATURES BELOW 10 KFT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BILLINGS AND
LIVINGSTON ALSO HINT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY SUB-SEVERE WINDS. FURTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS EAST.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STC

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN
PLACE...WITH NO IMPACTS FROM DEEP TROF IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
PREVIOUSLY IT WAS EXPECTED THAT SOME BACKDOOR COOLING WOULD SURGE
INTO SOUTHEAST MT WED/THU...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS NO LONGER IN THE
CARDS FOR US...PER STRONGER PACIFIC FLOW IN BC AND OVERALL LESS
AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY/WARM WITH TEMPS MUCH LIKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...IE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL STEP UP A BIT
WED/THU AS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FLATTER
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
MODELS CURRENTLY NOT ADVERTISING ANY PERIODS OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WED/THU...AND BELIEVE HIGHS WILL
GET FURTHER INTO THE 90S THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THIS RECENT WARM
SPELL. A VERY WARM PREFRONTAL DAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY BY FRI/SAT...THOUGH MUST STRESS
UNCERTAINTY HERE AS IT IS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE/
BLOCKY PATTERN. NONETHELESS WILL KEEP CLIMO POPS IN PLACE FOR
FRI/SAT...AND IN FACT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY MAY COMMENCE BY THU IN
OUR WEST AS ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND
RIDGE BY THEN. AS FOR TEMPS...WE MAY COOL BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A KBIL-
KSHR LINE. LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...AND THE TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KLVM. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/091 061/091 062/090 062/094 064/092 064/088 063/085
    32/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 056/091 056/091 054/092 054/095 056/092 056/086 053/084
    43/T    20/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/091 058/091 058/091 059/094 059/092 059/090 060/085
    21/B    11/U    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 060/088 061/088 061/088 061/090 062/091 063/089 063/086
    11/U    01/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 058/086 058/087 057/086 057/087 057/088 059/088 057/086
    11/B    11/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 056/083 056/083 057/083 056/086 056/088 060/087 060/084
    01/U    01/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 057/088 055/086 055/087 055/090 055/091 056/088 056/085
    32/T    21/B    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
538 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013

MTC067-300015-
PARK MT-
538 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PARK COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
MDT...

AT 535 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. GUSTS TO 50 MPH WERE REPORTED
NEAR BOZEMAN WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...PINE CREEK AND SPRINGDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 4553 11085 4559 11086 4559 11080 4585 11079
      4589 11029 4579 11029 4578 11022 4543 11022
      4548 11092 4552 11092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 270DEG 24KT 4567 11078

CHAMBERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
541 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013

MTC107-300015-
WHEATLAND MT-
541 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEATLAND COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

AT 539 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES WEST OF HARLOWTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TWODOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 4659 10985 4634 10994 4621 11028 4623 11029
      4645 11029 4665 11027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 322DEG 32KT 4649 11035

CHAMBERS

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