Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
309 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WERE HELPING TO FEED HIGH CAPES...ESPECIALLY IN THE E. SURFACE
CAPES RANGED FROM 500 TO 2000 J/KG FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA AT
19Z. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT FROM DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH W MT...AND STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SEVERE THREAT WILL PROGRESS FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS DYNAMICS MOVE E.
ONLY HINDRANCE TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WHERE THE S TO SW FLOW
WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM KBIL S AND
E...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS EVOLVING SITUATION CAREFULLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO EXIT THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS
COLD FRONT MOVES E. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAD A STRONG WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS WELL INTO THE 30S.

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL COMPETE WITH UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. CONTINUED THE LOW CHANCES OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER AS
AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE THAN TODAY/S AIRMASS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERED ON PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. DYNAMICS ALOFT AND INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LEANED ON THE SREF FOR POP FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES THU AND FRI. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE SITUATED
JUST NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL GET PULLED NORTHEAST WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS WHERE CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST SUNDAY LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA IN
A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...NO BIG DISTURBANCES
LOOK TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A KSHR-
KBIL LINE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
55KTS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL BUT EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/077 052/073 052/069 051/078 054/082 058/082 059/082
    31/U    33/T    34/T    41/B    11/B    22/T    21/U
LVM 042/070 041/072 042/067 046/079 046/082 051/081 054/085
    33/T    34/T    35/T    40/B    22/T    22/T    21/U
HDN 051/078 052/074 050/072 050/078 052/082 054/083 058/083
    20/U    33/T    24/T    41/B    11/B    22/T    21/U
MLS 058/078 055/077 056/076 055/080 056/083 059/083 061/085
    20/U    34/T    34/T    42/T    11/B    22/T    21/B
4BQ 055/080 055/076 054/075 053/079 054/084 057/084 059/086
    20/U    34/T    46/T    42/T    11/B    22/T    21/U
BHK 059/077 054/078 055/074 054/076 054/084 059/082 062/085
    30/U    25/T    56/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 048/078 048/075 048/073 047/076 049/081 052/082 053/084
    21/U    24/T    34/T    41/B    11/B    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-202115-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
314 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY TO
THE NORTH OF LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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