Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES UNTIL 11 PM TO
COVER SOME OF THE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS STILL PROPAGATING
EAST/NORTHEAST. WE STILL HAVE SOME STORMS WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR
WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
THERE SO WE DID SHAVE PARK...WHEATLAND...SWEET GRASS...CARBON AND
STILLWATER OUT OF THE WATCH. THOUGH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND FORCING YET OVERNIGHT AND WE
STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OF
MODERATE RAIN FORM AND HEAD NORTHEAST BY MORNING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

OVERVIEW...SPLIT JETS IN FRONT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT/DYNAMICS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A JUICY WARM SECTOR RESIDES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED
SUPER-CELLS AND ALSO MULTI-CELL STRUCTURED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG SHEAR AS STORMS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS.

LATER THIS EVENING...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT INVADES OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL KICK OFF MORE OF A RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
SCENARIO WITH LIGHTNING...AND WINDS SHIFTING STRONGLY TO THE NW.
THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER JET MAX
ROUNDING THE TROUGH INTO SW MONTANA WILL INDUCE SOME RAIN AND
THUNDER ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER OVER MOST SECTIONS FRIDAY. DRIER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE OVER SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP US WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD LOOKING
TO BE TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY UNDERCUT THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING RETURNED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
MAY MERGE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF RAIN LATE. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 50KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/068 047/077 051/079 052/080 055/085 052/077 052/071
    73/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 044/063 041/077 042/079 045/081 046/084 049/075 048/068
    54/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 051/070 046/078 049/080 051/080 056/088 052/081 053/073
    82/T    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 055/072 050/077 052/079 053/078 055/084 057/082 055/075
    73/T    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 053/071 046/077 049/080 051/079 055/087 055/087 055/076
    41/B    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
BHK 055/070 047/074 049/075 050/075 054/080 058/079 053/074
    52/T    00/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    11/U    12/T
SHR 049/069 043/076 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/085 050/073
    31/B    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 29-31-34-36>38-42-57-58-64-65-67.
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 29>32-35-36-38-42-57-58-63.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONE 99.
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
325 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-142130-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
325 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY
CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS ALONG WITH AREAS
BURNED BY 2012 WILDFIRES REMAIN UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
941 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             11 SSE ROUNDUP          46.29N 108.48W
06/13/2013  E1.00 INCH       MUSSELSHELL        MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VICKIES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
946 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MTC037-065-095-111-140430-
STILLWATER MT-GOLDEN VALLEY MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-MUSSELSHELL MT-
946 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STILLWATER...EASTERN
GOLDEN VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN YELLOWSTONE AND CENTRAL MUSSELSHELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 942 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
RYEGATE TO 19 MILES NORTH OF LAUREL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROUNDUP...LAVINA...BROADVIEW...MOLT...BELMONT...KLEIN AND COMANCHE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4675 10846 4635 10822 4584 10895 4673 10931
      4675 10927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 212DEG 41KT 4658 10918 4594 10889

LESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
956 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             11 SSE ROUNDUP          46.29N 108.48W
06/13/2013  E0.88 INCH       MUSSELSHELL        MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VICKIES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1001 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             1 E JOLIET              45.48N 108.97W
06/13/2013  E1.00 INCH       CARBON             MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

VICKIES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1008 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MTC003-140445-
BIG HORN MT-
1008 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BIG HORN COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM MDT...

AT 1005 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PRYOR...AND 10 MILES WEST OF FORT SMITH.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARDIN...CROW AGENCY...PRYOR...LODGE GRASS...FORT SMITH...GARRYOWEN
AND ST. XAVIER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4521 10813 4522 10811 4522 10817 4536 10869
      4547 10844 4546 10832 4549 10831 4549 10820
      4552 10819 4552 10808 4563 10806 4587 10749
      4519 10710 4517 10799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 238DEG 42KT 4533 10813

CJS