Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
229 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

OVERVIEW...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE OF BUSY CONVECTIVE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
HAS SET UP A TYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR HIGH PLAINS
AND MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THUS...I WILL BE PUSHING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR BURN SCARS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
OUR REGION TODAY PROVIDING EXCELLENT LIFT. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LARGER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS ADVECTING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. THE
STRONG SW FLOW OVERRIDING THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN HELICITY AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS WITHIN STORMS. THIS
ALL POINTS TO A THREAT OF HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A TORNADIC STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG HORN
COUNTY TO NORTHEAST WYOMING SECTIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING...BUT LINGER OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN
TRACK INTO OUR REGION...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
AGAIN THERE WILL BE GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS TODAY
THOUGH DUE TO WEAK AND SPORADIC NATURE OF ENERGY ALOFT COMPARED TO
TODAYS.

THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OUR EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS MAY BE
DRY SLOTTED AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN JUST HOW CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
OF MONTANA...BUT ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THE
FRONT RANGE...AT LEAST INTITIALLY. WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AT THIS
TIME FOR THURSDAY UNTIL WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
BUT EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF
BILLINGS AND MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. TIMING OF FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT AS A MORNING PASSAGE MAY HINDER THE SEVERE THREAT BUT A
LATER FRONTAL ARRIVAL MAY INCREASE THE THREAT. IN ANY
CASE...ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH RETURNED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE WITH
THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THIS LINE BY THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50KTS. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/082 056/084 053/075 048/078 052/081 054/080 053/082
    54/T    43/T    53/T    21/U    12/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 047/079 048/082 046/070 043/078 045/081 047/083 046/082
    45/T    44/T    53/T    21/U    12/T    23/T    32/T
HDN 054/084 056/086 052/076 048/078 052/082 054/080 051/085
    63/T    33/T    43/T    21/U    12/T    23/T    32/T
MLS 055/083 057/084 055/077 051/078 054/082 058/079 056/080
    72/T    43/T    54/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    32/T
4BQ 053/083 055/088 053/076 050/078 053/083 056/079 053/081
    62/T    32/T    32/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    32/T
BHK 052/076 055/079 055/075 052/076 053/077 054/075 053/077
    72/T    52/T    53/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    32/T
SHR 051/084 054/085 051/075 045/075 048/080 051/079 049/083
    32/T    32/T    33/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63-66>68.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
      ZONES 29-31-36>38-57-58-64-65-67.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
145 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-121945-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
145 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A TORNADO...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
AREA.

IN ADDITION...EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SOME STORMS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AREAS BURNED BY WILDFIRES IN 2012 WHICH ARE
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AREAS WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY
LINE ARE FAVORED FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF MONTANA COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH STORMS EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
254 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MTC037-095-097-107-112130-
WHEATLAND MT-STILLWATER MT-SWEET GRASS MT-GOLDEN VALLEY MT-
254 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEATLAND...CENTRAL
STILLWATER...CENTRAL SWEET GRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN GOLDEN VALLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 249 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN STILLWATER AND SWEET
GRASS COUNTIES INTO SOUTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY AND WHEATLAND
COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOURDOUGH...GREYCLIFF...HAILSTONE WILDLIFE REFUGE...REED POINT...
CUSHMAN AND RAPELJE.

 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4553 10988 4592 10987 4641 10986 4622 10905
      4567 10921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 237DEG 44KT 4590 10949

HOOLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MTC037-095-112215-
STILLWATER MT-GOLDEN VALLEY MT-
338 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STILLWATER AND
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 331 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN STILLWATER COUNTY
AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RYEGATE...LAVINA...FRANKLIN...BELMONT...RAPELJE...HALFBREED LAKE
WILDLIFE AND HAILSTONE WILDLIFE REFUGE.

 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4643 10890 4620 10881 4613 10884 4612 10892
      4596 10892 4591 10894 4581 10939 4672 10936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 240DEG 49KT 4617 10927

HOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
339 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             S RAPELJE               45.97N 109.27W
06/11/2013  E0.75 INCH       STILLWATER         MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

VICKIES