Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

448 
WWUS41 KBUF 260351
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

NYZ012-020-021-261200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1051 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...WYOMING COUNTIES. 
  GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 
 
* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.
 
* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY WEIGH
  DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR DAMAGE.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF 
  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. IF MORE RAIN 
  AND SLEET MIX IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-261200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1051 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BRISTOL HILLS. MUCH 
  LESS ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY 
  WEIGH DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR 
  DAMAGE. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF 
  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. IF MORE RAIN 
  AND SLEET MIX IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

207 
WWUS41 KBUF 260912
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

NYZ012-020-021-261715-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
412 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...WYOMING COUNTIES. 
  GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 
 
* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.
 
* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY WEIGH
  DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR DAMAGE.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF MORE RAIN MIXES
  IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-261715-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
412 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BRISTOL HILLS. MUCH 
  LESS ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY 
  WEIGH DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR 
  DAMAGE. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF MORE RAIN
  MIXES IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

513 
WWUS41 KBUF 261443
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

NYZ012-020-021-262300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
943 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...WYOMING COUNTIES. 
  GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY 
  WEIGH DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR 
  DAMAGE. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF 
  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF MORE RAIN 
  MIXES IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-262300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
943 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BRISTOL HILLS. MUCH 
  LESS ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY 
  WEIGH DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR 
  DAMAGE. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF 
  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF MORE RAIN 
  MIXES IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA/JJR

206 
WWUS41 KBUF 261843
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

NYZ012>014-020-021-270245-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.130226T2300Z-130227T2300Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
143 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...LIVINGSTON...AND
  ONTARIO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT AND UP
  TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...LEADING TO
  STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1600
  FEET. ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND SPOTTY FREEZING
  RAIN WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH POOR
  VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW COULD ALSO WEIGH DOWN SOME
  TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED MINOR DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-270245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.130227T0300Z-130228T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
143 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT... 2
  TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN... LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7
  INCHES...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1600 FEET. ICE ACCUMULATING
  UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
  AN INCH WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF LESS THAN TWO
  TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND SPOTTY FREEZING
  RAIN WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH POOR
  VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW COULD ALSO WEIGH DOWN SOME
  TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED MINOR DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
304 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
BEFORE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM SENDS A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET
TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD SYSTEM WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF WET SNOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS MUCH OF THE REGION
STILL UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...THOUGH TOWARDS THE STATE
LINE DRIER AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND IS SPREADING
SNOW AND RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AT 850 HPA WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH DRIER AIR AND PARTIAL CLEARING FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE.
WITH WINDS LIGHT UP THROUGH 10K FEET SKIES WILL TAKE THEIR TIME
CLEARING THOUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MAINLY
CLEAR BY DAWN. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS.

ON TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF OUR
DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. A BROAD AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TOWARDS OUR REGION LATER
IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THE TIMING BRINGS RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER MID
AFTERNOON...AND THEN REACHING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND UPPER
GENESEE VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE OF 2-3C BETWEEN 750 AND 850
HPA WILL BEGIN THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS RAIN
WILL START TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE CHANGE OVER
TO SLEET AND SNOW WILL OCCUR SOONER. ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
WEST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN AS
PLAIN RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVING AROUND
PTYPE.

TAKING A LOOK AT PREVIOUS SIMILAR EVENTS USING THE CIPS COLD
SEASON ANALOG PAGE FROM SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY...THERE ARE A WIDE
VARIETY OF OUTCOMES FROM PREVIOUS SIMILAR STORMS. THE CLOSEST
ANALOG WITH REGARDS TO UPPER AIR FEATURES WAS FROM FEBRUARY 18TH
1998 AND PRODUCED MAINLY RAIN...BUT THERMAL PROFILES WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER. THE SECOND CLOSEST ANALOG FROM MARCH 5TH 1993
PRODUCED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT THIS EVENT WAS SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER.

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...A STRONG MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A
MODERATELY STRONG LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK AND BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG
60-70 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF
THE SYSTEM AND TRANSPORT RICH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO PROVIDE STRONG CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON ITS NOSE. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ALL OF
WHICH SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE QUALITY OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST IS HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP TYPE...
WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RELATIVELY MILD NATURE OF
THIS AIRMASS...NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM THE
SURFACE INTO THE MID LEVELS.

MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOW THE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOMING NEARLY ISOTHERMAL FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB
DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
MAINTAINING A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND WOULD POINT TOWARDS MORE OF A
RAIN EVENT ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE CONCERN IS THAT
DURING PERIODS OF STRONG LIFT AND HEAVY PRECIP...THE COLUMN COOLS
DUE TO LATENT HEAT OF MELTING. IF THE PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH...THIS
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESS CAN COLLAPSE THE THERMAL PROFILE TO THE
FREEZING MARK AND CHANGE COLD RAIN TO HEAVY WET SNOW. IN ADDITION...
THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME WARM AIR ALOFT POINTS TOWARDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD...BOTH
IN RAIN AND SNOW AREAS.

GIVEN THE SETUP AND PAST SIMILAR EVENTS...IT APPEARS THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME
WILL THE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. THIS INCLUDES THE HILLTOPS IN CATTARAUGUS...
ALLEGANY...AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND ALSO THE BRISTOL HILLS IN A
SMALL PORTION OF LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. THESE AREAS HAVE
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...MAINLY ABOVE
ABOUT 1800FT ABOVE MSL. WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL ISSUE A LOW
CONFIDENCE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE 5 COUNTIES. NOTE THAT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WILL SEE LESS SNOW...ESPECIALLY
IN LIVINGSTON COUNTY WHERE THE VALLEYS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATE.

ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...OUR BEST ESTIMATE NOW IS THAT PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THE MIX WITH SLEET AND WET SNOW AND PROBABLY CHANGE
TO MAINLY WET SNOW FOR A TIME DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE MIX OF RAIN SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.
FOR NOW WE HAVE GONE WITH 1-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COUNTIES
OUTSIDE THE WATCH...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE IN THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS MAY
SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE COLUMN COOLS QUICK ENOUGH AND REMAINS
THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP...BUT EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
HERE DOES NOT JUSTIFY A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MIX WITH RAIN AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THERE
WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR MAINLY SNOW. IN THIS AREA HOWEVER...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FROM DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
ADIRONDACKS DUE TO THE STRONG ESE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS TO THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER MID LEVEL
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM AND CREATE A SLOW
MOVING MID LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PA/NY
WITH A SURFACE LOW NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BELOW IT. THIS WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS GOING WITH PERIODS OF WET SNOW...WHICH MAY
STILL MIX WITH SOME RAIN AT FIRST WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY INCREASE LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AND THE
AIRMASS GROWS COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS OF
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF THE PERSISTENT MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL LOW...BOTH NOW TAKE
THIS FEATURE QUICKLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THIS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO ALLOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES...BOTH OF
WHICH MAY PROVIDE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
REMINISCENT OF MID WINTER THAN EARLY MARCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS LINGERED ACROSS THE CWA AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE CHOOSE TO KEEP THE LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.

A FEW FLURRIES ARE FOUND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY CROSS THE KIAG AIRFIELD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BACKING TO EASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH OF THE NEARING STORM
SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IFR WITH SNOW...RAIN AND WINTRY MIX.
LLWS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH OF A BROAD STORM SYSTEM EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
BOTH GREAT LAKES BODY OF WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 20
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. ELSEWHERE ON THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
NEARS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FURTHER ON BOTH LAKES TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFTS ARE
LIKELY AS DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THIS EASTERLY WIND AND THE APPEARANCE OF OPEN
WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE SOME MOVEMENT
OF SHORELINE ICE IS POSSIBLE.

THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BACKING
TO NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER LAKE ERIE AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012>014-020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
542 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

NYZ001>005-010-011-019-085-261045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
542 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MAINLY RAIN THEN MIXING AND/OR
CHANGING TO SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
OVERNIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-261045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
542 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-020-021-261045-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
542 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN THEN MIXING AND/OR CHANGING TO
SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OVERNIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-261045-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
542 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OVERNIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF