Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

449 
WWUS41 KBUF 070137
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
837 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

NYZ012-013-019>021-085-070945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
837 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN
  ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY AND 1
  TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7
  INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY
  RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SLIPPERY ROADS AND
  POOR VISIBILITY. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
  EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY
  AS TO HOW MUCH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL. JUST A SMALL
  CHANGE IN PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OR STORM TRACK WILL
  HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010-011-014-070945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...CANANDAIGUA
837 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH
  SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES
  FRIDAY...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF
  6 TO 11 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT
  TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
  EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN
  STORM TRACK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST SNOW
  AMOUNTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-070945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0300Z-130209T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
837 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...6 TO 9 INCHES
  FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF
  10 TO 16 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT
  TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
  EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN
  STORM TRACK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST SNOW
  AMOUNTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

330 
WWUS41 KBUF 070854
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ006>008-071700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0300Z-130209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0300Z-130209T1000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 10 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...NOT JUST AREAS PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT.
  EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
  IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-071700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 5
AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
  EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
  LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS DURING THIS
  TIME THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-071700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
  DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE BULK
  OF THE SNOW WILL FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-085-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND SOUTHERN
  PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT 
  TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THIS REGION WILL BE NEAR A BOUNDARY
  WHICH WILL DIVIDE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM ALL SNOW. THE EXACT
  LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW THE
  REGION GETS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH
  ICE ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A TENTH INCH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 
  MAY RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SLIPPERY 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THIS REGION WILL BE NEAR A BOUNDARY
  WHICH WILL DIVIDE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM ALL SNOW. THE
  SOUTHERN TIER IS LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WHICH
  WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW TOTALS. ANY SHIFT IN THIS BOUNDARY COULD
  RESULT IN MORE OR LESS SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

724 
WWUS41 KBUF 071558
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1058 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-080000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0900Z-130209T1000Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1058 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
  LAKES. 

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATING 4 TO 8 INCHES. ICE
  ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT AND LESS
  THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF UP
  TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
  RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE STEADIEST SNOW
  IS EXPECTED TO FALL LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
  EVENING...BUT THE RISK FOR ICY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE
  TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE CHANCES FOR
  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE GREATEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-080000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0300Z-130209T1000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1058 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 10 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL 
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...NOT JUST AREAS PRONE TO LAKE 
  EFFECT. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  EVENING. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL 
  FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-080000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1058 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL 
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
  LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS DURING THIS 
  TIME THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-080000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
1058 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES. 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL 
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
  DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE BULK 
  OF THE SNOW WILL FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SOME SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY...THEN MERGE WITH AN INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM THAT WILL BE
MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW AND ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL PICKING UP ENOUGH
MOISTURE FROM THE PARTIALLY OPEN WATERS OVER THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE. THE LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING A FEW FLURRIES WELL
EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO...BUT THIS PCPN IS SHOWING A DIMINISHING
TREND.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA IS SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE...THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE MID MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
MIDWEST...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE READINGS MAY DIP INTO THE MINUS TEENS BEFORE MODERATING DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT EARLY...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL STAY MAINLY
TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WILL CONFINE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 30S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...ALTHOUGH READINGS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20 ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MERCURY READINGS
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SUBTLELY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AS A
WAVY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 WILL HELP TO MAKE FOR A MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST AS THE
ISSUE OF PHASING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
LARGER CONCERN ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THOUGH WHERE A MAJOR LATE
SEASON NOR'EASTER MAY BE IN THE OFFING. THE DETAILS...

EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A MODERATELY
STRONG WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A RESULT OF THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A TIGHTENING H85-70 THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. MILDER AIR PUSHING
NORTH ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT NUISANCE SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO CANANDAIGUA AND SYRACUSE. SINCE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC FORCING AND ACCOMPANYING JET INDUCED
LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH. THINGS WILL THEN BECOME MUCH MORE INTERESTING.

THE BLOCKING CANADIAN HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE AND SRN
ONTARIO WITH A WEAK SFC LOW LIKELY TAKING OVER OHIO. MEANWHILE...
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CARRY A CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW TO
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO P-TYPE FOR THE WRN
SOUTHERN TIER. IF THE TWO BRANCHES ARE ABLE TO PHASE EARLY ON IN THE
NIGHT...THEN THE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO LOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK. A LATER PHASING OF THE TWO JET BRANCHES WOULD FAVOR
MORE WARM AIR BEING PUSHED UP ACROSS THE SRN TIER WITH A MIX OF
SLEET BECOMING MORE POSSIBLE.

THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES AND POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MORE COARSE
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WRN SOUTHERN
TIER STAYS JUST BELOW FREEZING...WITH JUST A HINT OF A BRIEF WARM
NOSE. EVEN SO...DRIER AIR AT H925-85 WOULD ENCOURAGE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WITH ANY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW GOING BACK OVER TO JUST SNOW.
WILL THUS REMOVE MENTION OF ANY -ZR FORM THE SRN TIER THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REPLACE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SLEET TO GO ALONG WITH THE
PREDOMINANT SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PCPN WILL ONLY FALL AS SNOW.
ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION...TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE JET DYNAMICS THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
(AS PER THE GFS)...COULD SEE THESE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BEING A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE.

ON FRIDAY...ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES DEPICT THE PHASING OF THE TWO
BRANCHES WITH A STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE WEAK LOW IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE
ABSORBED IN THE PROCESS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING...DRYING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING WILL SERIOUSLY SHRINK THE SNOW DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL LEAVE SOME OF THE
EARLIER THINKING THAT THE SNOW COULD TAPER OFF TO A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR AN ALL DAY SNOW FROM THE
FINGER LAKES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...POSSIBLY WHILE MIXING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT...THIS HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A SOLID
ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT WITH SNOW ACCUMS RANGING FROM 3-5 OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AND 4-7 FOR SITES EAST OF ROC. THERE IS THE CHANCE
THAT WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS COULD BE EVEN BE REACHED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BORDERING
COUNTIES EAST OF HAMLIN BEACH WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD COME INTO
PLAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS STILL TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH
THOUGH...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT (HWO).
HOLDING BACK ON THE WATCH ALSO COORDINATES WELL WITH SURROUNDING
WFO'S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WORK ITS WAY UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE STRONG SFC HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL ARCH SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN. THIS WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR REGION...DELAYING THE ENDING OF THE RESIDUAL SNOW
SHOWERS. AGAIN...LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF ONTARIO WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE
IN THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN UPSLOPE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMING INTO PLAY AS WELL.

FOR SATURDAY...THE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE
RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL PROBABLY NOT
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY (WRN
SITES) SKIES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.

THE HIGH WILL START TO DRIFT EAST OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLR/PC SKIES WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE
A COLD NIGHT...SO WILL AIM UNDER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. THE SERPENTINE-LIKE FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN PLAINS BACK TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWWEST...BUT AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST AND BE SHEARED INTO A BROAD BASED...SPLIT FLOW. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE WINTER CONDITIONS
AFTER TWO DAYS OF ANOMALOUSLY MILD WEATHER.

LOOKING MORE CLOSELY TO AT THE DETAILS...AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WHILE ITS
CORRESPONDING STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP H85 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO C
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

A STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE CORE
STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM THOUGH...AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION WE EXPERIENCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE SAY IN WHETHER WE EXPERIENCE
STRONG WINDS LATE MONDAY...BUT THATS GETTING AHEAD OF OURSELVES.

AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
MIXED PCPCN OVER THE FAR WRN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY ON
MONDAY...IT WILL PUSH A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THIS PCPN...THERE COULD BE THE RISK FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.
BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF JUST RAIN.

THE GFS DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOTABLY WEAKER AND MORE DISORGANIZED
WITH THE FEATURE. THE FORMER WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FOR OUR REGION MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
A LAKE RESPONSE SO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.

A LOOK FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A LOW CHC
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE IS STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANY LINGERING
MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT.

VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...THOUGH SOME
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KBUF/KROC.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE EASTERLY WINDS TO PICK
UP ON LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND WAVES MAY
REACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BUILD AS
MUCH ON LAKE ERIE.

AS THE MIDWEST LOW MERGES WITH THE INTENSIFYING EAST COAST STORM ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
530 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

NYZ001>008-010>014-085-071030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
530 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COMPLEX STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA (7
INCHES OR MORE). OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE LOWER
SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WINTER STORM
WATCH...OR WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019>021-071030-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
530 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COMPLEX STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA (7
INCHES OR MORE). THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SOME SLEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE STEADY SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A BIT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WINTER STORM
WATCH...OR WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-071030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
530 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH