Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
847 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO JAMES BAY WILL SWEEP A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR ALSO OVERSPREADING
OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM...HAVE UPDATED ALL RELEVANT FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE
ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 570...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TONIGHT....AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC-SCALE WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...

AS OF MID EVENING...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE
STRAITS OF MICHIGAN. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WHILE BOMBING OUT TO
AROUND 965MB. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NY BY
03Z THEN WILL RAPIDLY RACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
BEFORE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND 07Z-08Z. THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PERIOD OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BELT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT. IN
TURN...THIS REGION OF ASCENT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION.

SQUALL LINE AND SEVERE WEATHER...

AS OF 845 PM...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PUSHING INTO EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE.

INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BY MID SUMMER STANDARDS...BUT MLCAPE
OF AROUND 500J/KG IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A SQUALL LINE IN
SUCH A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG WELL ALIGNED WIND FIELDS
SUPPORT MAINLY STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE HERE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ANY SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES STILL EXIST ALONG THE LINE.

SPC HAS WESTERN NY IN MODERATE RISK AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
FARTHER EAST...WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE IS STILL LIKELY...ALTHOUGH
MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A STRONG 60-75 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...AND ALSO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY TO NEAR FORT DRUM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES AND NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. THESE
PRE-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF
40-55 MPH IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...LOWER ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
RAPIDLY INCREASE. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
GENERAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. 50-60 KNOTS OF WIND ALOFT REMAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP...AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DAMAGING
GUSTS NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.

IN ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DEVELOPING
TROPOPAUSE FOLD AND INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE MID
LEVELS WITH THIS INTENSE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES DOWNWARD MIXING POTENTIAL.
WITH SUCH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM...WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STING
JET. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN 60 MPH.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING IN WESTERN NY...AND THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. ANY SHOWERS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
A LITTLE MORE LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY
MIX IN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL FROM THE 50S EARLY THROUGH THE 40S BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL PULL OUT ACROSS QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKES
MONDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW.

AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ALL LAKE EFFECT PCPN
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN A BIT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE DECREASES. THE TRANSITORY NATURE AND WEAKENING TREND TO THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON
TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END. WE WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER NEW YORK STATE BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.

WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL KEEP US DRY...BUT THERE WILL AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LINGER DUE TO A
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

A STRONGER COLDER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY. EXPECT
GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF
MUCH COLDER AIR (850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO -15C TO -20C)
IS FORECAST TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...BEFORE A FALLING
TREND TAKES PLACE BEHIND EACH FRONT. BY SUNDAY...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 30 DEGREES.

THE COLD AIR MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS THOSE THAT WILL BE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS AND NORTHWARD FACING
SLOPES...BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE POTENTIALLY LOWERING BACK TO HIGH-END
MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
MONDAY...WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES
LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY ON BOTH LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING TO 965 MB SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SOLID GALES ON THE LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS AND STORM FORCE GUSTS. IT WILL BE A
BIT MORE MARGINAL ON THE RIVERS...BUT THE SHEAR STRENGTH OF THE LOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT JUSTIFY GALES ON THE NIAGARA RIVER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER AS WELL.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
LAKES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC WILL FOLLOW A FAVORABLE PATH TO
PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND PUSH RISING WATER
TO THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING A
STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY EVENING. NORMALLY THIS SCENARIO
GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WOULD NOT ALLOW THE LAKE LEVEL TO
QUITE REACH FLOOD STAGE...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A PEAK
AROUND 6 FEET. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SQUALL LINE DRIVEN SEICHE EVENTS ARE NOT AS
COMMON AS SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN...BUT IF THE SQUALL LINE IS STRONG
ENOUGH IT MAY ENHANCE THE SEICHE AND PUSH THE WATER LEVEL AT
BUFFALO TO NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE OF 8 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH
TO A WARNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010-011-
     019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ012>014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

NYZ007-008-190200-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-006-190200-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-190200-
WAYNE-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-011-190200-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-020-021-190200-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-019-085-190200-
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-190200-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-190200-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043-190200-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-190200-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ044-045-063>065-190200-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ062-190200-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
857 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 N DUNKIRK MUNI ARPT   42.50N  79.28W
11/17/2013  M56 MPH          CHAUTAUQUA         NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300369

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNKIRK                 42.49N  79.34W
11/17/2013                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   PUBLIC

            STORAGE DOOR TO A GAS STATION GARAGE BLOWN OFF

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300370

THOMAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

NYZ003-004-011>014-180515-
GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE NY-ONTARIO NY-WAYNE NY-WYOMING NY-
1107 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION...

* AT 1105 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
  45 MPH...AND A SHORT BURST OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HILTON TO YORK TO 20 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF PORTAGEVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4256 7806 4336 7790 4335 7776 4324 7755
      4329 7737 4330 7709 4328 7700 4330 7691
      4337 7695 4330 7690 4333 7676 4302 7676
      4300 7695 4276 7697 4276 7731 4266 7736
      4257 7737

RSH