Special Marine Warning 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS WILL SHARPLY TRANSITION BACK TO MORE
WINTRY BY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY WITH
DAYTIME SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AVERAGING SOME 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF SHOWERS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NEW
YORK..AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN
OHIO. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTED THE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY SHOWING UP...BUT SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE NARROW
CONVECTIVE LINE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE PRODUCING WINDS
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE FRONT SLICES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE STILL COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT BUT THIS LOOKS LIMITED WITH OVERALL
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE KINEMATICS MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THIS. RAINFALL TODAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A 0.25 AND
0.50 INCHES THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY BE ABLE TO GAIN A FEW MORE DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH
THE 40S BY THE END OF THE DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED DRY SLOT NOSING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH WILL END THE PRECIPITATION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG 55-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOUND AT 925 HPA TODAY. NON CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY...BASED ON A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
WNY...AND TOWARDS THE EAST WHERE SOME DAYTIME MIXING WITH PREFRONTAL
SUNSHINE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE ALL ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS MORNING...THOUGH END TIMES WILL
DIFFER. BACK ACROSS WNY AND ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE A
STRONG FLOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS FUNNELING UP LAKE
ERIE ON A COLD AIR ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL REACH 50 MPH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE WIND ADVISORY HERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH ONGOING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL SHARPLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 40S AFTER EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT -8 TO -12C 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL FLOOD ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES INTO THE REGION LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE. AS
THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LAKE
ENHANCED...AND EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF A COATING IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGH SPOTS SOUTH OF BUFFALO. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE COLD
AIR WILL NOT DEEPEN TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION HERE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BRISK
WIND. THIS WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST WITH THIS MORNING'S TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHILLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER THAN THAT.

THE 21Z SREF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND
-12C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT WOULD
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE APRIL SUN
DISRUPTS ANY ORGANIZED BANDS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER TO FLURRIES DURING THE
DAY...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.

AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
WE SEE FOR SOME TIME...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S...AND EVEN
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INTERIOR VALLEYS. THIS IS
ON THE COLD SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT
WINDS OUTSIDE OF A MODEST NORTHERLY LAKE BREEZE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COLD. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL DISRUPT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS FAVORING A FASTER SOLUTION AND MORE
NORTHERLY SOLUTION THAT RAPIDLY TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING TIMEFRAME AS OPPOSED TO THE SLOWER AND
MORE ORGANIZED ECMWF SOLUTION. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY HAVE
A GREATER IMPACT ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STEMS FROM THE
HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ONE OF A MULTITUDE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS WPC
GUIDANCE...ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...FOR THE SAKE
OF CONTINUITY.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INDEED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STATIONED OVER THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF RAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY THROUGH 17Z...AND WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LIGHTNING AND
THUNDER IS EXPECTED...CONFIDENCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO OCCUR OVER
ANY AIRFIELD IS LOW.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBY INITIALLY...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS THE
RAIN SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG TO KROC. STRONGEST
GUSTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC AIRFIELDS.

AS COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION A FEW SNOW FLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KJHW TERMINAL WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE WILL SUPPLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES AND ALL
RIVERS WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. WAVES WILL STEEPEN
TODAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO REACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005>008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ004-013-014-
     020-021.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS

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