Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2013

Small Craft Advisory 98, NWS Buffalo, NY

October 25, 2013

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Oct 25, 2013, 4:41 AM EDT. It took effect at Oct 25, 2013, 6:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 14 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 25, 2013, 4:41 AM EDT (08:41 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 25, 2013, 6:00 PM EDT
Expired
Oct 26, 2013, 8:00 AM EDT
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

319 
WHUS71 KBUF 250841
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

LEZ040-041-251645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-131025T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.131025T2200Z-131026T1000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0009.131026T1000Z-131027T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1000Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-251645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-131025T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.131025T2200Z-131026T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0009.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-251645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-131025T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.131025T2200Z-131026T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0009.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-251645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0009.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-251645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0009.131026T1200Z-131027T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
055 
WHUS71 KBUF 251522
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

LEZ040-041-252330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.131025T2200Z-131026T1000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1000Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1122 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-252330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.131025T2200Z-131026T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1122 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-252330-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1122 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-252330-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1122 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH
529 
WHUS71 KBUF 260336
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

LEZ040-041-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-131026T1000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1000Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1136 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-131026T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1136 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1136 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-261145-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1136 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
337 
WHUS71 KBUF 260842
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

LEZ040-041-261645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-131026T1000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1000Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-261645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-131026T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-261645-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-261645-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-261645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0099.131026T1400Z-131026T2300Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
699 
WHUS71 KBUF 261137
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

LOZ042>045-261945-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-131026T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-261945-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-261945-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-261945-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.131026T1200Z-131027T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-261945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0099.131026T1400Z-131026T2300Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 25, 4:28 AM EDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 25, 4:28 AM EDT, 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
428 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS AND RAIN SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ESTABLISHED A CONNECTION FROM GEORGIAN BAY
TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A SOLITARY BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN FROM EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTY TO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NE PA WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON
WHILE ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED ALOFT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO -4C WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER LAKES. HIGH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 20KFT WILL PRESENT A DEEP LAYER OF FREE
LIFT...SO WE DO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL INTENSITY MAY BE
DAMPED BY DRYING AND INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THE
LOWER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...AND TO THE
UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER UNDER THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF WINDS ALONG THE
LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ARRIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL FOCUS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BRING
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER IN THE
FAVORED CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO NEAR -2C OR WARMER. THIS WARMING WILL END ANY
LINGERING EARLY MORNING LAKE EFFECT AND THEN IT LOOKS AS IF THE AIR
WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED AS A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND AN UPTICK IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH CROSSES THE ENTIRE AREA WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE...THE GREATER CHANCES FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LAKE INSTABILITY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES. THE AIR MASS DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -3C TO -4C RANGE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW...EXCEPT FOR A MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS GETS JUST A BIT COLDER AROUND -5C
SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND A
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL CHANGE SOMEWHAT DURING
THIS PERIOD...AS THE PERSISTENT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT
PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

THIS PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
OUT OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...RIDE UP AND OVER A
FLAT BRITISH COLUMBIA RIDGE...THEN DIVE INTO AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED
WEAKNESS IN THE HGT FIELD OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM...
WHICH WILL INCLUDE A MORE SHALLOW...PACIFIC BASED TROUGH. THIS WILL
KEEP SEASONABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS THE SOURCE OF THE REAL
CHILLY AIR WILL BE CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN CANADA.

WHILE THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
ON THIS SOLUTION...THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS AS TO THE AMOUNT OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE WAVE RIDGE AND THE RESULTING SFC FEATURES.

IN ANY CASE...PATTERN RECOGNITION SHOULD TELL YOU THAT WHEN WE HAVE
THE SCENARIO OF A CUT OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE THE
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR 'CUTTERS' TO EVOLVE FROM THE CORRESPONDING
ENERGY THAT GETS EJECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS IN TURN COULD LEAD
TO WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS WHAT WE MAY HAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME. LETS DIG INTO THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING OUR REGION AS THIS PERIOD OPENS ON
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING AN END TO ANY ONGOING WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...AS MUCH GREATER SHEAR WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO
THE LOW LEVELS WHILE DRYING MID LEVELS WITH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAN BE EXPECTED. SYNOPTICALLY...ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SUPPLYING US WITH
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THEN MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
TIMING WILL COME INTO PLAY AS TO WHEN SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE
PACKAGES...BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN AMONG ITS
OWN ENSEMBLE (GEFS) GROUP. IT DEPICTS A PAIR OF 'CUTTERS' THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CONSENSUS HPC FORECAST BOTH HOLD THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH ONLY ONE STORM EVENTUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE UPPER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL BASE THE FORECAST ON THE ECMWF AND HAND DRAWN HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A
BIT OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SITES EAST OF LK ONTARIO. BY
THURSDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST...WILL USE LOW CHC POPS
FOR ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON NORTHWEST FLOW
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS SHIFT SOUTH
INTO PA....AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE CORE OF THE LAKE ERIE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
NY/PA BORDER AND BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR KERI FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RECENT STORMINESS. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY GALES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 24, 3:53 PM EDT, 12 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

NYZ003>008-012>014-252000-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010-011-252000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019>021-085-252000-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA
STATE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-252000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-252000-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-252000-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-252000-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
353 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

APFFEL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 25, 4:41 AM EDTGale WarningBUF41 hr
Oct 25, 9:14 AM EDTWind AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 6 more30 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2013Every small craft advisory in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.