Small Craft Advisory 68, NWS Buffalo, NY

428 
WHUS71 KBUF 201147
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

LEZ040-041-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

846 
WHUS71 KBUF 201442
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

LEZ040-041-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

400 
WHUS71 KBUF 201737
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

LEZ020-201845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LOZ044-045-210145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130721T0200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-202000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A SECONDARY LINE OF
CONVECTION MARKS THE POSITION OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM
SOUTHERN MI ACROSS NORTHERN SRN ONTARIO NORTHEAST TOWARDS OTTAWA.

ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/CENTRAL LAKE ERIE APPEARS TO BE
LOSING ITS PUNCH AS IT ENCOUNTERS PREVIOUSLY RAIN-STABILIZED AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NY WHILE A MORE POTENT BATCH OF CONVECTION
THAT APPEARED TO BE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER IS NOW DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CLEVELAND METRO. NONETHELESS...EVEN THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT FOR WNY NOW APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IN THEIR WEAKENED STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE VERY
MOIST WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THAT ARE SATURATED FROM
EARLIER RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL HAVE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LOCAL CREEKS CLOSELY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS SLIDING
SOUTHWARDS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODEL PROGS HAD IT MOVING. AFTER
THIS NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EXPECT
MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...ONE
MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS...DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING ISSUES WITH THAT ROUND
OF CONVECTION. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE
END OF THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL...AND GRADUALLY FALLING 850MB TEMPS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOOK FOR A SHARPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH THE MERCURY FALLING TO NEAR 60
DEGREES NEAR THE LAKES WITH 50S INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS A MUCH DRIER AND MORE REFRESHING AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE AND THE BULK OF ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SLIPPED TO OUR SOUTH...SAVE FOR THE NAM
WHICH IS A SLOWER OUTLIER. AS THIS PARTICULAR MODEL HAS SHOWN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO...WILL DISREGARD IT IN FAVOR OF THE FASTER GFS/
GEM/ECMWF CONSENSUS AND OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...ALL OF WHICH
ADVERTISE A GENERALLY DRY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A HIGHLY
ANTICIPATED COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...FINALLY BRINGING SOME MUCH
WELCOMED RELIEF FROM THE TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE
PAST WEEK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL BACK TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS IN THE 50S.

WITH THE WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
/OR AROUND +25C/...AND THE INCOMING COOLER AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
FEATURING 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +10C BY LATER IN THE NIGHT...WE MAY
WELL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY
AND FEATURE TOO LOW OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COUPLED WITH STRONG MIDSUMMER DIURNAL EFFECTS...THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT BREAKING UP
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM +9C NORTH TO +13C SOUTH SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER PLEASANT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO
THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. THE COOLER AND QUIET
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS SHOULD
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S EVEN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERING MORE EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS TO
BE A PROBLEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MODEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND NY/PA...WHILE
ALSO SPAWNING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. WHILE THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST
THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW WELL DEVELOPED IT WILL BE...ALL
HAVE CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND TOWARD A FASTER AND SOMEWHAT MORE
DEVELOPED SYSTEM...WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENTUALLY ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY OF A TOTALLY DRY FORECAST BOTH IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE BRINGING HIGHER CHANCE RANGE POPS
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE BEST AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS THROUGH THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD
WILL RETURN TO MIDSUMMER NORMS GIVEN THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS OF AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL REVERT TO ONE WE HAVE BEEN MORE
FAMILIAR WITH FOR THE BULK OF THE SPRING AND SUMMER...THAT OF A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...WITH A
CORRESPONDING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
REGION...WITH DAILY HIGHS AVERAGING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 EACH
DAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE FORECAST PICTURE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. UNDER THE EXPECTED LARGE-SCALE FLOW
REGIME...NUMEROUS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS ALL OVER
THE MAP WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED TO BROADBRUSH SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR NOW...AND WILL WAIT UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPS BEFORE TRYING TO PROVIDE MORE
REFINED/DETAILED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND TIMING. ALL THIS
SAID...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAR FROM A WASHOUT AT THIS TIME...
WITH ANY SHOTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO ALTERNATE WITH FREQUENT
DRY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. WHILE THE
HEAVIEST SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00-03Z. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER FROPA AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
         MORNING FOR LOZ030-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NYZ007-008-012-020-021-200930-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHORES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>006-013-014-200930-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-011-200930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-GENESEE-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-019-085-200930-
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  WIND ADVISORY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TODAY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHORES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-200930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1134 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND OLCOTT                  43.34N  78.72W
07/19/2013  M58 MPH          LOZ042             NY   C-MAN STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300244

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
07/19/2013                   CATTARAUGUS        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES...WIRES AND POLE DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300245

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1216 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BENNINGTON              42.84N  78.39W
07/19/2013                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300246

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1222 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELDON                 42.74N  78.42W
07/19/2013                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300247

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1226 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARSAW                  42.74N  78.13W
07/19/2013                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300248

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
243 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

NYZ014-200715-
ONTARIO NY-
243 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 238 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
  10 MILES WEST OF GENEVA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4295 7723 4301 7696 4296 7695 4287 7695
      4286 7697 4275 7697 4276 7721

THOMAS