Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2013

River Flood Warning 12, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 22, 2013Genesee County, Monroe County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Dec 22, 2013, 12:44 PM EST for Genesee County, Monroe County, New York. It took effect at Dec 22, 2013, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 32 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 22, 2013, 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 22, 2013, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 24, 2013, 3:28 AM EST
In force
32 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Genesee County, NY, Monroe County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Oatka Creek at Garbutt (GRBN6). The gauge peaked at 7.19 ft at Dec 23, 2013, 6:00 AM EST.

actionminormoderatemajor246812/2212/2312/2412/25
Action stage
5 ft
Minor stage
6 ft
Moderate stage
7 ft
Major stage
8 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04230500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

699 
WGUS41 KBUF 221744
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1244 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.

&&

NYC037-055-222344-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0012.131223T0000Z-131223T1452Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0600Z.131223T0852Z.UU/
1244 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM THIS EVENING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.6 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 6.1 FEET TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

HITCHCOCK
9 follow-up statements
087 
WGUS81 KBUF 222039
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0000Z/
/BTVN6.3.ER.131222T0809Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1800Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 12.0 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-230239-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1130Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0316Z.131224T0000Z.131225T0530Z.NR/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT 
  AND CREST NEAR 15.6 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.131223T0000Z-131223T1452Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0600Z.131223T0852Z.UU/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* FROM THIS EVENING TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 6.1 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-230239-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1800Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0000Z.131224T1200Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 2 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.7 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.131223T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.131223T0000Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-230239-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131224T0030Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0000Z.131223T1830Z.NR/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-222109-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131223T0147Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.131221T2217Z.131222T0700Z.131222T1717Z.NO/
339 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA.
* AT 3 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 4.7 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

HITCHCOCK
846 
WGUS81 KBUF 230036
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-230636-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0000Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T1800Z.NO/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-230636-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1130Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0230Z.131224T0000Z.131225T0530Z.NR/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT 
  AND CREST NEAR 15.6 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-230636-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T0000Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1800Z.UU/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.2 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC009-230636-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1800Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0600Z.131224T1200Z.NO/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.7 FEET
  TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-230106-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-131223T0600Z/
/SLMN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 9.9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE 
  REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-230636-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2100Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1500Z.NR/
736 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 9.7 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$
328 
WGUS81 KBUF 230402
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T2308Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T1708Z.NO/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER AT BATAVIA HAS CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1030Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T0430Z.NR/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T1400Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0800Z.UU/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.6 FEET 
  MONDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

NYC037-055-231002-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T0130Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131223T1930Z.NO/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.5 FEET 
  MONDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MORE WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  LAND FLOODING, SOME BACKYARD AND BASEMENT FLOODING CHURCHVILLE TO 
  CHILI BUT MINIMAL DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-231001-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1800Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0600Z.131224T1200Z.NO/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR ITS FORECAST CREST OF 10.6 FEET AND IS NOW
  FORECAST TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-231001-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2046Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0600Z.131223T1446Z.NR/
1102 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED NEAR 9.7 FEET AND IS NOW FORECAST TO 
  STEADILY FALL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$
910 
WGUS41 KBUF 230537
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1237 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...
  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.

&&

NYC037-055-231137-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T1600Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1200Z.131224T1000Z.UU/
1237 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.0 FEET 
  THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC037-055-231137-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T0400Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131223T2200Z.NO/
1237 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.0 FEET 
  THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF CREEK. SOME RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  BEGINS CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI AREA. POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

APFFEL
045 
WGUS81 KBUF 230925
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-231525-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131225T0000Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1200Z.131224T1800Z.UU/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC037-055-231525-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T0920Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1200Z.131224T0320Z.NR/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.7 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0527Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T2327Z.NO/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL AND 
  COMMERCIAL FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO 
  AMHERST. CONSIDERABLE RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 FROM THE 
  WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BATAVIA INTO THE TOWN OF BATAVIA AND EAST
  PEMBROKE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND FEEDER 
  STREAMS ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK ESPECIALLY NEAR IROQUOIS NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE TONAWANDA INDIAN RESERVATION.

$$

NYC029-063-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1530Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T0930Z.NR/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.7 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC009-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1403Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0130Z.131224T0803Z.NO/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-231524-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2320Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0245Z.131223T1720Z.NR/
425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN 
  ELLICOTT CREEK PARK AND MINOR FLOODING IN SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOODS
  IN TONAWANDA. UB BIKE PATH FLOODED AND CLOSED. AERO DRIVE HOLTZ TO 
  TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA CLOSED. FLOODING AROUND BOWMANSVILLE FIRE 
  HALL. AREAS EAST OF NORTH FOREST FROM MAPLE TO FRENCH SUBJECT TO 
  SEWER BACKUPS.

$$

APFFEL
622 
WGUS81 KBUF 231510
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131225T0000Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1130Z.131224T1800Z.UU/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND CRESTING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC037-055-232110-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T1905Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1400Z.131224T1305Z.NR/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND CRESTING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0527Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131223T2327Z.NO/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE 
  REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN ALABAMA SWAMPS, 
  RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND ALSO IN CITY OF 
  BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC029-063-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1530Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T0930Z.NR/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.7 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC009-232110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1403Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0130Z.131224T0803Z.NO/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 10.1 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-232110-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2328Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0245Z.131223T1728Z.NR/
1010 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...SOME FLOODING BEGINS ALONG AERO
  DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO SOME FLOODING 
  ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH AS THE BIKE 
  PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK PARK. LITTLE
  OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$
962 
WGUS81 KBUF 232035
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-240235-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T1715Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1900Z.131224T1115Z.NR/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-240235-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0824Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131224T0224Z.NO/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...FLOODING ALONG THE ENTIRE 
  REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN ALABAMA SWAMPS, 
  RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND ALSO IN CITY OF 
  BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC029-063-240235-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131225T1905Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T0600Z.131225T1305Z.NR/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.8 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-240235-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131225T0000Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1130Z.131224T1800Z.UU/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.9 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC009-232105-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131224T1403Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.131222T1505Z.131223T0130Z.131223T1415Z.NO/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 9.3 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC029-037-232105-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-131223T2328Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.131222T0701Z.131223T0245Z.131223T1907Z.NR/
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE.
* AT 3 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 4.5 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...SOME FLOODING BEGINS ALONG AERO
  DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO SOME FLOODING 
  ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH AS THE BIKE 
  PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK PARK. LITTLE
  OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$
568 
WGUS81 KBUF 240235
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-240835-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T2145Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1900Z.131224T1545Z.NR/
935 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH OF CREEK IN GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. SERIOUS
  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING CHURCHVILLE, CHILI, TO THE VICINITY OF THE 
  ROCHESTER AIRPORT. SOME BACKWATER PROBLEMS FROM THE GENESEE RIVER 
  EAST OF CHILI.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-240305-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131224T0824Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.131222T0809Z.131222T2300Z.131224T0145Z.NO/
935 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
* AT 9 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5.1 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

NYC029-063-240835-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131226T0300Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T1800Z.131225T2100Z.NR/
935 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT 9 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.4 FEET
  EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-240835-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T1600Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1130Z.131224T1000Z.UU/
935 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

HITCHCOCK
775 
WGUS81 KBUF 240828
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


&&

NYC037-055-241428-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131224T2145Z/
/CHRN6.2.ER.131223T0130Z.131223T1900Z.131224T1545Z.NR/
328 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 3 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
  DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF CREEK. SOME RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  BEGINS CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI AREA. POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

NYC029-063-241428-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-131226T0300Z/
/RAPN6.2.ER.131223T0220Z.131224T1800Z.131225T2100Z.NR/
328 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT 3 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 15.2 FEET
  THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
  IN MOST OF NORTH CLARENCE AND NORTH AMHERST, ROYALTON, AND NEWSTEAD
  ALONG WITH MANY ROAD CLOSURES, INCLUDING MILLERSPORT HIGHWAY AND 
  TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD. RANSOM OAKS AREA IN EAST AMHERST IS INUNDATED
  WITH BACKWATER INTO RANSOM, MUD, BEEMAN AND OTHER SMALL CREEKS. 
  THERE IS SERIOUS FLOODING UPSTREAM INTO THE ALABAMA SWAMPS.

$$

NYC037-055-240858-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-131224T1600Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.131222T2250Z.131223T1130Z.131224T0636Z.UU/
328 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT.
* AT 3 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...GENERAL FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE AND
  GARBUTT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 22, 10:59 AM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 22, 10:59 AM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1059 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FREEZING RAIN
WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER ACTIVITY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIP IS
OVER...NOW FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF
LIGHTER SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...AND THIS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY DURING THE MORNING.

FOR THE MAJOR ICE STORM WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

A MAJOR ICE EVENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM
AND HARRISVILLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 20S THIS
MORNING IN THIS AREA...AND WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING TODAY MOST OF
THE TIME. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS DONE...BUT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THIS WILL BRING THE EVENT TOTAL ICE UP TO
1.5 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS MAGNITUDE PRODUCE A MAJOR ICE
STORM TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND
POWER OUTAGES THAT WOULD LAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

FOR THE LINGERING ICE CONCERNS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...

A BLUSTERY NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING IS POURING A SHALLOW COLD
LAYER OF AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INLAND
TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...THROUGH THE
GENESEE VALLEY TO NORTHERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
REGIONAL OBS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND NOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR NOW TO ADDRESS LINGERING
PROBLEMS DUE TO TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE IN THE AREA. STORM TOTAL
ICE LIKELY APPROACHED 0.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS GIVEN THE DAMAGE
REPORTS COMING IN.

FOR THE FLOODING CONCERNS...

THE MAIN SLUG OF RAINFALL IS NOW OVER. WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES COMBINED WITH THE SNOWMELT IS SENDING MANY
RIVERS AND CREEKS TO FLOOD STAGE. EXPECT THE AREA FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING WITH A
LAG EFFECT IN THE DRAINING OF WATER. SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH AFTERNOON. RIVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE...SEE APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE OVER OHIO THIS EARLY MORNING ADVANCES ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR REACHING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. AS THIS WARM AIR
SURGES NORTHWARD HAVE NOTICED UPWARDS TO A 20 DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURE IN AN HOUR TIME FRAME (KERI) AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR
OCCURRENCES ACROSS WNY...WITH LOCALITIES JUMPING FROM THE MID 30S
INTO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BORDERING THE LAKE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE TO THE SOUTH SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL LIKELY TOP THE 60F MARK.

ALSO ACCOMPANYING THIS WARMING IS A INCREASE IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
THE WARMER AIR IS MIXING A LLJ OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIKELY
GUST 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS WNY WITH THE RETURN OF THE WARMER AIR.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ONCE IT DOES IT WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW. COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT SNOW...AND RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO TAPER OFF AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
WIND SHIFT WILL BRING HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH MID
30S LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT CROSS UNTIL LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO NOTICEABLY COLDER WEATHER WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS PERIOD
AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.  HOWEVER A NORTHWEST
FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL GENERATE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -15C MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL INCREASE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ONLY
MODERATE...BUT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IT
WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. STEADIEST SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE OFF
LAKE ERIE...WHERE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS MORE LIKELY. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BE ACROSS NW PA. EXPECT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS...BUT
UNCERTAINLY IN LOCATION LEAVES CONFIDENCE JUST SHY OF WATCH
THRESHOLD.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL RESULT IN A DRIER FLOW
UPSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAID...IF A CONVERGENT FLOW DEVELOPS
DOWN LAKE ONTARIO IT WOULD NOT NEED MUCH EXTRA MOISTURE WITH THE
TROF ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT BY TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH BELOW
5K FEET...WITH A VERY FLUFFY SNOW WITH 20 OR 30 TO 1 RATIOS
POSSIBLE. SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
LOCALIZED...FOCUSING IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SE OF THE LAKE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER FOR LOCATIONS WHICH LOST THE SNOW PACK FROM RECENT
RAINS...THERE IS STILL HOPE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DIP INTO THE TEENS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE TEENS ON TUESDAY. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER NEW YORK
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...READINGS MAY DROP TO
MINUS FIVE TO MINUS 15 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO OUR
REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL WARM CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.  A NORTHWEST FLOW OF
COLDER AIR WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE FINGER LAKES SEPARATES
MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES WITH BIG DIFFERENCES IN AVIATION
CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ...AREAS SUCH AS KJHW...ARE SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHILE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THIS FRONT WILL CROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN THE VCNTY KBUF/KIAG AND KROC AS THE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE LOW...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY. ALSO EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE AT KART WHICH WILL LIKELY
STAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THIS FRONT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE.

A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. AT
KART...THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS SE OF
THE LAKE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FAIRLY
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE
SOUTHWEST OF DUNKIRK. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY ON
LAKE ERIE...BUT CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATER TODAY...AND
BRING CHOPPY WATERS AND A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS EXPECTED TO BE DONE AROUND DAYBREAK. AFTER
THIS THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE RIVERS. SOON WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON JUST HOW MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN...AS REPORTS COME
IN THIS MORNING.

UTILIZING OUR OBSERVATION NETWORK...IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL END UP IN CHAUTAUQUA/ERIE COUNTIES...WITH STORM TOTALS IN THE
2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WITH 1.50 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION
TO THE RAIN...SNOW MELT HAS PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN THIS EVENT. THE
MAJORITY OF A 1.5 TO 3.0 SWE SNOWPACK OFF EAST OF LAKE ERIE HAS
MELTED...WITH NEARLY ALL THE SNOW MELTED IN THE GENESEE BASIN.
MOST OF A 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW PACK WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN IN PLACE ON
THE TUG HILL...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN SOME SNOW MELT IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.

THIS HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH
NUMEROUS RIVERS ALREADY FLOODING. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT WILL BRING THE WORST FLOODING TO THE BUFFALO CREEKS.
MOST OF THESE WILL LIKELY CREST WITH MODERATE FLOODING...BUT THESE
MAY BE FINE TUNED AS MORE PRECIPITATION DATA COMES IN. THIS WILL
BE THE WORST FLOODING MANY OF THESE CREEKS HAVE SEEN IN FOR
SEVERAL YEARS. THE HIGHEST CREST IS FORECAST FOR THE TONAWANDA
CREEK AT RAPIDS...WHICH IS LIKELY TO REACH MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. TONAWANDA CREEK IS VERY SLOW RESPONDING...SO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE RAPIDS GAGE...INCLUDING NORTHERN AMHERST AND
CLARENCE...WILL NOT SEE THE WORST OF THE FLOODING UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FLOODING WILL BE LESS SEVERE FOR THE GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY
BASINS...BUT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY RIVER AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER NEAR PORTAGEVILLE. IN
GENERAL...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS A BIT LESS FOR THESE
BASINS...AND RAINFALL DROPS OFF TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO LIGHTER
RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS...THE WARNING IN GARBUTT HAS BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE CREEK EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

FOR THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BASIN HAVE
GOTTEN PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
BASIN HAVE GOTTEN RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MELT. CURRENT FORECASTS BRING
THE BLACK RIVER TO ACTION STAGE BUT JUST BELOW FLOOD...BUT WILL
KEEP THE WATCH UP FOR NOW IN CASE THIS FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
ADJUSTED.

LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT MOST OF THE ICE HAS BEEN FLUSHED FROM THE
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...SO ICE JAMS ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/JJR/APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 22, 12:09 PM EST, 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1209 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

NYZ007-008-231715-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1209 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   ICE STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-010>014-021-231715-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
1209 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-231715-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1209 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-231715-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1209 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW THE REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 22, 10:23 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1023 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION LAKEVILLE               42.84N  77.71W
12/22/2013                   LIVINGSTON         NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            0.1 INCHES OF ICE ON TREE BRANCHES

0900 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION BARKER                  43.33N  78.55W
12/22/2013                   NIAGARA            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            0.3 INCHES OF ICE

0930 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION POINT BREEZE            43.37N  78.20W
12/22/2013                   ORLEANS            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            0.2 INCHES OF ICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300446
EVENT NUMBER BUF1300447
EVENT NUMBER BUF1300448

DK
Local storm report, Dec 22, 10:31 AM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1031 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH TONAWANDA         43.04N  78.87W
12/22/2013                   NIAGARA            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            0.3 INCHES OF ICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300449

DK
Local storm report, Dec 22, 11:02 AM EST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     ICE STORM        BATAVIA                 43.00N  78.18W
12/22/2013                   GENESEE            NY   NEWSPAPER

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES DOWN THROUGHOUT
            COUNTY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300450

HITCHCOCK
Local storm report, Dec 22, 11:09 AM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1109 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     ICE STORM        WATERTOWN               43.97N  75.91W
12/22/2013                   JEFFERSON          NY   NEWSPAPER

            OVER 25000 WITHOUT POWER IN JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH
            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES DOWN ESPECIALLY
            NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300451

HITCHCOCK
Local storm report, Dec 22, 11:20 AM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION 2 SW WATERTOWN          43.95N  75.94W
12/22/2013                   JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.2 INCHES OF ICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300452

HITCHCOCK
Local storm report, Dec 22, 12:16 PM EST, 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1216 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     ICE ACCUMULATION OAKFIELD                43.06N  78.27W
12/22/2013                   GENESEE            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            0.3 INCHES OF ICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1300453

DK

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in New York, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.