Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2013
Lake Effect Snow Warning 13, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 26, 2013, 3:30 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Dec 26, 2013, 3:00 PM EST. It was in force for 25 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 26, 2013, 3:30 AM EST (08:30 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 26, 2013, 3:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Dec 27, 2013, 3:31 PM EST
- In force
- 25 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1635 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 223 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
266 WWUS41 KBUF 260830 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 330 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013 NYZ006>008-261630- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0015.131226T1800Z-131227T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0013.131226T2000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 330 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...6 TO 12 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 11 TO 17 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-261630- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0032.131226T1500Z-131227T1500Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 330 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY...3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT... AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ HITCHCOCK
8 follow-up statements
543 WWUS41 KBUF 261715 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1215 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 NYZ006>008-270115- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.131226T2000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1215 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...6 TO 11 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 9 TO 17 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-270115- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-131227T1500Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1215 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$
173 WWUS41 KBUF 262011 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 311 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 NYZ006>008-270415- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 311 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-270415- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-131227T1500Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 311 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY. * WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$
440 WWUS41 KBUF 262338 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 638 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 NYZ006>008-270745- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 638 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES TONIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO MANNSVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-270745- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-131227T1500Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 638 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ REYNOLDS
113 WWUS41 KBUF 270301 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1001 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 NYZ012-019-020-085-270415- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-131227T1500Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1001 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 2 INCHES. $$ NYZ006>008-271115- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1001 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO MANNSVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ TMA
704 WWUS41 KBUF 270844 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 344 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 NYZ006>008-271645- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 344 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TODAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 FROM PULASKI TO ADAMS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ HITCHCOCK
588 WWUS41 KBUF 271630 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1130 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 NYZ006-008-271730- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE 1130 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. $$ NYZ007-272100- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN 1130 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS... AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS TODAY. * VISIBILITIES.... * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 NORTH OF WATERTOWN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ WOOD
892 WWUS41 KBUF 271632 CCA WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1131 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 NYZ006-008-271745- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ OSWEGO-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE 1131 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. $$ NYZ007-272100- /O.COR.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN 1131 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS... AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS TODAY. * VISIBILITIES.... * IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG INTERSTATE 81 NORTH OF WATERTOWN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ WOOD
538 WWUS41 KBUF 272031 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 331 PM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 NYZ007-272145- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-131227T2100Z/ JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN 331 PM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 25, 11:44 PM EST, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 11:44 PM EST, 3 hours 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1144 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
THURSDAY...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO
OUR AREA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...AND THIS WILL ONLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR IN
OUR REGION. EXPECT JUST FLURRIES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A DUSTING
ACROSS METRO BUFFALO AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A
COUPLE TENTHS OF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT SHOWS THAT THIS
LIFT IS BELOW 3000 FEET...WHICH SUGGESTS IT IS MAINLY DUE TO
UPSLOPING. TYPICALLY...UPSLOPING IS OVERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IN THIS CASE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL LARGELY CONFIDED TO THE SOUTH FACE OF THE TUG
HILL. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE LATE
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
ON THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS WILL ALSO BE A COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN CANADA AND OUT OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THE TROF
AND WIND SHIFT WILL BRING A FAIRLY GOOD SNOW BURST TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR
STORY WILL PLAY OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
BRINGING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO THESE AREAS. THE TROF WILL
HAVE LESS LAKE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE LAKES
WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGIONS.
BEHIND THIS...THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
EVENT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE
MARGINAL...BUT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE TROF AND A FAIRLY
LONG FETCH...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE BY
SUNSET THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
TOTALS OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH THE MOST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ADD TO SNOW TOTALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD CHRISTMAS...TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY
MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS WILL
STILL BE FOUND OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH THE COLDEST NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC AIR OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE MODERATELY STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BOOST OUR
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER. THE BIG EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF BOTH
LAKES WHERE ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LAKE SNOWS WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG
HILL REGIONS AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...AS A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW OF -12C H85 WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE CAP WILL BE LOWERING FROM 7K FT OVER LAKE
ERIE...THE CAP SHOULD BE FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE EAST END OF ONTARIO.
THE SHORT...CROSS LAKE FETCH AND ABSENCE OF ANY DEFINED UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WITH WEAKENING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY COMING INTO PLAY AS WELL AS
WE APPROACH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN
THE VCNTY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OFF LK ONTARIO...THE MUCH GREATER
FETCH ON THE 280-290 FLOW WILL HELP TO MAKE UP FOR THE LAKE OF ANY
CONNECTION...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA
(>6" IN 12 HRS/>8 IN 24 HRS). HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR THE TUG HILL AREA TO COVER THIS EVENT. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE
P/M CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
ON FRIDAY...A TIGHTENING SFC-H85 GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DISTINCT WEAKENING OF THE ON-
GOING LAKE EFFECT...WITH H85 TEMPS OF -5C BY EVENING OVER LK ERIE
ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE ACTIVITY FOR THE SRN TIER. THIS PROCESS WILL
TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO OFF LK ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A COUPLE
INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE TUG. OTHERWISE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL LEND TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
AN END TO ALL OF THE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUM IN THE VCNTY OF
THE TUG...THIS SHOULD BE A VERY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER NIGHT WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS AND MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 20S (LOW 20S NORTH COUNTRY).
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL REMAIN WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD CLIMB TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
WITH OVERNIGHT MINS ONLY SETTLING TO ABOUT THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ITS GETTING TO BE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT THE COLDEST AIR IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF VERY COLD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE RUSSIAN
ARCTIC WILL COMBINE WITH A LARGE POLAR VORTEX DRIFTING ACROSS HUDSON
BAY TO RES-ESTABLISH A CROSS POLAR FLOW. WHILE THE COLDEST AIR (H85
-36 TO -40C) WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN REACHES OF ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL PUSH ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SNIFF OF ARCTIC AIR (-20C) TO SWEEP
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
JUST AS THE CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL ADVECT VERY AIR SOUTHWARDS INTO
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WARM ADVECTION ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 'WARMER'
WEATHER INSIDE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. H85 TEMPS AT ALERT (NORTHERN TIP OF
ELLESMERE IS.) WILL REMAIN BETWEEN -10 TO -15C...WHILE COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY WHILE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WHERE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE. WILL
BACK OFF ON THE POPS FROM CONTINUITY AND ONLY USE SLGT CHC.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 40.
THE COAST STORM WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SURGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -16C
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SLOWLY PRESS EAST FROM HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP TO CIRCULATE THE ARCTIC AIR INTO
EASTERN CANADA. ANY NOTABLE ARCTIC INTRUSION CANNOT BE COMPLETE
WITHOUT A CORRESPONDINGLY STRONG SFC HIGH. WHILE A SPRAWLING SFC
HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IT WILL NOT EXCEED
1040MB. THIS SHOULD BE A HINT THAT THE RESULTING COLD ADVECTION MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SERIOUSLY COLD WEATHER IN THE
STATES. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BOTH OF THESE
DAYS...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SUGGESTION BY SOME OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT
SOME SUBTLE WARMING COULD TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...AS A CLIPPER
TYPE STORM SYSTEM MAY BE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
REGARDLESS...THERE WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF
THE LAKES ON WESTERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS...LOCALIZED IFR IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO JAMES BAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND
PICK UP...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
SOONER. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE ERIE WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ON LAKE
ONTARIO WILL TEND TO SUBSIDE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE
PICKING UP LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE STATUSES...
TONAWANDA CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL
HYDROLOGY...TJPHazardous weather outlook, Dec 25, 12:42 PM EST, 14 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1242 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 NYZ006>008-261745- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 1242 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-261745- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- 1242 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ012-019-020-085-261745- WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- 1242 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-261745- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1242 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2013Every lake effect snow warning in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.