Heat Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

835 
WWUS71 KBUF 191444
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NYZ001-002-011-192245-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0003.130719T1600Z-130720T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.130719T1600Z-130720T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BATAVIA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES. GREATEST 
  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AS HIGH AS 100 TO 104.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN...HEAT 
  EXHAUSTION OR OTHER HEAT RELATED SYMPTOMS COULD DEVELOP IN 
  THOSE EXPOSED TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE VERY 
  YOUNG AND ELDERLY MOST AT RISK. STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN 
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MAY BRING DOWN A FEW TREE BRANCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-192245-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0003.130719T1600Z-130720T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY...NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND 
  COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAINLY INLAND AWAY FROM 
  THE LAKESHORE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AS HIGH AS 100 TO 104.

* IMPACTS...IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN...HEAT 
  EXHAUSTION OR OTHER HEAT RELATED SYMPTOMS COULD DEVELOP IN 
  THOSE EXPOSED TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE VERY 
  YOUNG AND ELDERLY MOST AT RISK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-192245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.130719T1600Z-130720T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND 
  INLAND ACROSS ERIE COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STRONGEST
  GUSTS WILL BE FOUND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
  FRONTIER.

* IMPACTS...WINDS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MAY 
  BRING DOWN A FEW TREE BRANCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

319 
WWUS71 KBUF 192036
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NYZ001-002-011-200000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BATAVIA
436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES. GREATEST 
  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AS HIGH AS 100 TO 104.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN...HEAT 
  EXHAUSTION OR OTHER HEAT RELATED SYMPTOMS COULD DEVELOP IN 
  THOSE EXPOSED TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE VERY 
  YOUNG AND ELDERLY MOST AT RISK. STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN 
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MAY BRING DOWN A FEW TREE BRANCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-200000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY...NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND 
  COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAINLY INLAND AWAY FROM 
  THE LAKESHORE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AS HIGH AS 100 TO 104.

* IMPACTS...IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN...HEAT 
  EXHAUSTION OR OTHER HEAT RELATED SYMPTOMS COULD DEVELOP IN 
  THOSE EXPOSED TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE VERY 
  YOUNG AND ELDERLY MOST AT RISK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-200000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND 
  INLAND ACROSS ERIE COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE
  STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* IMPACTS...WINDS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MAY 
  BRING DOWN A FEW TREE BRANCHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

950 
WWUS71 KBUF 192333
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

NYZ001-002-011-200045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BATAVIA
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HEAT
ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 


$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-200045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HEAT
ADVISORY. 


$$

NYZ010-019-085-200045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130720T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WILL
MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A GREATER
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS MAY KEEP IT FROM BEING AS
SULTRY AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS
WILL NOT DROP BELOW 75...WITH SITES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
LIKELY EXPERIENCING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. THESE READINGS
WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...PARTS OF THE REGION (NAMELY THE SRN TIER)
HAVE EXPERIENCED LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT THIS FOG AND STRATUS FROM
BEING AS WIDESPREAD.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE WATCH OVERNIGHT WILL BE AN MCS MOVING EAST FROM
GEORGIAN BAY. A ROUGH TRAJECTORY OF THIS ACTIVITY BASED ON THE
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT COULD IMPACT THE THOUSAND
ISLANDS REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS
AND THE LATEST NAM FAVOR A TRACK THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY FURTHER
NORTH...THUS REMAINING OUT OF OUR CWA.

ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOWLY EASING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING...THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
FUNNELING EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL /45 MPH/ GUSTS...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NOT HOIST A WIND ADVISORY
JUST YET...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE SHIFTS IF
THE EXPECTED WINDS GET ANY STRONGER.

WITH STRONG MIXING RESULTING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS...AND 850
MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +19C...EXPECT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER
70S...THIS WILL AGAIN LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO OSWEGO
COUNTY. WHILE THE HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES...THE DEBATE IS WHETHER THE 20 TO
30+ MPH WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS MORE TOLERABLE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OF
LATE.

WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF OUR AREA
BECOMING SHADOWED TO CONVECTION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF TOMORROW...
SAVE FOR MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER
LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOME
LOWER-END CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. VERY LATE IN THE DAY...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO
EDGE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY EVENING. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THAT...PLEASE SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS A SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...FORCING
A FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA IN TWO
SEGMENTS...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...IT APPEARS THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

DECENT DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER WITH A 120+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
OVER QUEBEC...PLACING THE LOWER LAKES IN THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FOR ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT A FEW WEAKER CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVES ARE
LIKELY TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
GIVEN THE QUALITY OF FORCING AND DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOES...NORMALLY CONVECTION ARRIVING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT AS DURING THE DAY OR EVENING...BUT STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SBCAPE REMAINING ABOVE 1000J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME AS A BELT OF 30-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS DEPENDING ON STORM SCALE STRUCTURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING STILL EXPECT THE BETTER SEVERE
RISK TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A SIZABLE BREAK WITH EVEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY. LATE IN THE
DAY THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE
FOR A VERY NICE SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG WITH SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT IN RECENT MEMORY WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LAKE PLAINS AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PA AND NY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO VERY CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A BROAD TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES. AT THIS POINT
HAVE JUST BLANKETED THE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWS FOR MORE REFINED TIMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...BUT
BOTH WILL REMAIN BELOW THE LEVELS OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND AT 06Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 18 TO 24
HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE. SOME PATCHY MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY THIS EARLY MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.

ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC.

WITH THE DEVELOPING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LAKE SHADOWS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW...
THEREBY LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO EDGE INTO WNY AS WELL AS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF
CYCLE AS THE RAIN SHOWERS PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING THERE WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL REMAIN RIDGED FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK TO MODEST WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAVES OF ROUGHLY 2 FEET OR LESS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH WINDS AND WAVES BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ON FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AS WELL
AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

OTHERWISE...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. GREATER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN ARRIVE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER
WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXTREME OR RECORD BREAKING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEK ARE LIKELY OUT OF REACH FOR BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER. RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID
70S...AND A FEW NIGHTS MIGHT GET CLOSE TO THOSE RECORDS.

WATERTOWN HAS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT BREAKING A FEW RECORDS THIS
WEEK...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MUCH SHORTER PERIOD OF
RECORD THERE...GOING BACK 65 YEARS TO MAY OF 1949. RECORDS AT
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER BOTH GO BACK 143 YEARS TO 1871.

HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

BUFFALO..

DATE       RECORD HIGH  RECORD WARM LOW
FRI 7/19        92             75

ROCHESTER...

DATE       RECORD HIGH  RECORD WARM LOW
FRI 7/19        95             75

WATERTOWN...

DATE       RECORD HIGH  RECORD WARM LOW
FRI 7/19        92             72

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
         EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK/JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

NYZ001>006-011-013-014-200015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-GENESEE-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
806 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRESSFUL HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 100 TO 104
ON FRIDAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-010-012-019>021-085-200015-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
806 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MID 90S ON FRIDAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
SHORES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-200015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
806 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH